URoL:EN - Rules of Resilience: Predicting transformation of emergent freshwater networks under variable climate regimes

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Human health and well-being are intimately tied to surface freshwater availability and quality. Providing adequate and safe freshwater requires management of freshwater systems like lakes, rivers, and ponds. Increasing environmental variability makes management more difficult and requires an understanding of how natural biological communities respond to change. Resilience, or the ability to withstand changes to climate, is likely due to both diversity in species and individual characteristics. Species contain individuals that can be very different from one another, we suggest this diversity in characteristics (phenotype) is as important as the diversity of species in building climate resilience. This idea has rarely been evaluated experimentally or across space and time. This multi-institution, multi-disciplinary team will test the effects of changing climatic conditions on freshwater ecosystems. This collaboration combines technology (artificial intelligence and distributed computing) with biological theory to understand freshwater systems using observational, experimental, and modeling approaches. This interdisciplinary team will test ecological frameworks and explore resilience to environmental change. In ponds and lakes, body size is an aspect of phenotype that can determine the success of a predator or a competitor, where larger organisms are often more successful. Body size can also change in response to environmental conditions, and some animals are better able to adjust body size under favorable conditions. We hypothesize that communities with limited species diversity and individual variation will be less resilient, while communities that can maintain species diversity and individual variation will maintain high resilience and ecosystem services. We hypothesize that communities that maintain diversity and variation will do so by shifts in how species and individuals interact, controlled in part by changes in body size. In addition to predicting resilience of freshwater ecosystems under a changing climate, results of this study will provide managers and policy makers with a deeper understanding of the range of ecosystem changes to anticipate and enable targeted application of management actions and dollars to preserve ecosystem services for human well-being. The study will enhance the learning and research experience of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) students at Oregon State University, Gonzaga University, and Whitworth University by providing an experience in scientific collaboration using skills and information from different fields to solve a common problem. The team will conduct outreach and recruitment efforts to engage underrepresented groups, particularly tribal and migrant communities, via curriculum development, research participation, and the production of bilingual children's books that highlight Pacific Northwest freshwater ecosystems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.