Collaborative Research: Untangling the Changing Nature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Driven Terrestrial Impacts

合作研究：解开厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 驱动的陆地影响的性质变化

• 批准号: 2223263
• 负责人: Sarah Larson
• 金额: $ 34.11万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-11-01 至 2025-10-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2223263&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Untangling; Changing; Nature

El Niño is primarily identified by a large pool of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that persists for several months in a row. El Niño, and its cooler-than-average counterpart La Niña, affects global weather and climate by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño can be predicted several months in advance, and so can provide an early picture of expected weather and climate patterns over North America and other highly populated regions of the world. It is not yet clear how El Niño will change in a future climate, with some studies suggesting it will get stronger, weaker, more or less frequent, or even that El Niño will become more frequent while La Niña diminishes, and so on. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how the future climate, which is expected to be warmer and wetter, will alter El Niño impacts. This study uses a sophisticated computer model simulation of the global atmosphere and ocean to untangle these interactions and understand how different possible changes in El Niño in turn lead to changes in their impacts. For example, if future El Niño events are stronger than current ones, how do temperature and precipitation patterns over North America change in a future climate? The investigators will systematically test several potential scenarios, uncovering the physical mechanisms that cause the changes in impacts. This study also seeks to understand if El Niño impacts may become more predictable, or less predictable, depending on how El Niño changes in the future. The outcomes of this study will contribute to our understanding of how El Niño affects North American weather and climate patterns and what can be expected under climate change.The broader impacts of this work are centered in four areas. Integration of Research and Education: The proposed work will train two graduate students and results will be integrated into classroom materials. Public Outreach: Public outreach will be facilitated through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate.gov blog about El Niño. Societal Impacts: Under the current climate, El Niño’s impacts are far-reaching and highly impactful. The proposed work will contribute to improved understanding of the uncertainty in seasonal climate forecasts through a greater understanding of variability contingent on El Niño statistics and climate change. Data use beyond the lifetime of this project: The output generated via the proposed experiments will be useful not only for El Niño applications, but also for understanding how other climate variability is modulated by El Niño and future mean state changes. The investigators will share data with interested groups to support such efforts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

厄尔尼诺Niño主要是通过热带太平洋中持续数月的比平均温度高的一大池水来确定的。厄尔尼诺Niño和比平均温度低的厄尔尼诺Niña通过改变大气环流模式影响全球天气和气候。El Niño可以提前几个月预测，因此可以提供北美和世界上其他人口密集地区的预期天气和气候模式的早期图像。目前尚不清楚厄尔尼诺Niño在未来气候中将如何变化，一些研究表明，它将变得更强或更弱，频率或多或少，甚至厄尔尼诺Niño将变得更频繁，而厄尔尼诺Niña将减少，等等。此外，未来的气候预计会变得更温暖、更潮湿，这将如何改变厄尔尼诺Niño的影响还不确定。这项研究使用了一个复杂的计算机模型模拟全球大气和海洋来解开这些相互作用的谜团，并了解厄尔尼诺Niño中不同的可能变化如何反过来导致它们的影响变化。例如，如果未来的厄尔尼诺Niño事件比现在的更强，那么在未来的气候中，北美的温度和降水模式会发生怎样的变化？调查人员将系统地测试几种可能的情况，揭示导致影响变化的物理机制。这项研究还试图了解El Niño的影响是否会变得更可预测，还是更不可预测，这取决于El Niño未来的变化。这项研究的结果将有助于我们了解厄尔尼诺Niño如何影响北美的天气和气候模式，以及在气候变化下可以预期什么。这项工作的广泛影响集中在四个方面。研究与教育的整合：建议的工作将培养两名研究生，结果将整合到课堂材料中。公众宣传：公众宣传将通过国家海洋和大气管理局关于El Niño的climate.gov博客进行。社会影响：在目前的气候下，El Niño的影响是深远的，影响很大。拟议的工作将通过更好地了解El Niño统计数据和气候变化的变率，有助于提高对季节性气候预报不确定性的认识。本项目生命周期以外的数据使用：通过提出的实验产生的输出不仅对厄尔尼诺Niño的应用有用，而且对理解其他气候变率如何被厄尔尼诺Niño和未来的平均状态变化调制也有用。调查人员将与感兴趣的团体分享数据，以支持这一努力。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。