LTER: Ecological Response to "Press-Pulse" Disturbances Along a Rapidly Changing West Antarctic Peninsula

据预测，气候变化将对海洋食物网产生重大影响。对于海洋生物和化学与海冰的存在与否密切相关的极地系统来说尤其如此。帕尔默长期生态研究项目的重点是发展对南极半岛西部海洋食物网生态的基本认识。该地区正在经历地球上一些最迅速的变化，包括大气和海洋的迅速变暖、海冰的大量减少和冰川的大规模退缩。这些变化正在引起食物网的重大变化。该项目一直在追踪食物网的所有部分，从单细胞植物到企鹅和鲸鱼，是如何对这些变化做出反应的。并不是食物网的所有部分都受到了同样的影响。由于极地海洋系统在全球碳循环中发挥着巨大的作用，这些变化具有广泛的影响，超出了海洋生态学的范畴。该项目还支持一项广泛的教育和推广计划，以促进南极科学和研究的全球意义。以最近制定的极地扫盲原则为基础，该项目将通过虚拟实地考察和传播新的极地教学材料，为K-12教育工作者维持和扩大虚拟校园计划，以促进他们的专业发展和课程设置。该项目还将为课后、4-H和夏令营项目开发校外时间材料；开发和实施一个艺术和科学展览，旨在为高等教育使用，重点是吸引终身学习者；制作高质量的科学传播资源，直接向邮轮行业的受众，并通过社交媒体间接地建立对国家科学基金会研究的认识。该项目通过一项协调一致的多样性、公平性和包容性计划，利用虚拟和传统的研究经验，为本科生项目扩大参与范围，旨在帮助代表性不足的学生。季节性海冰影响的海洋生态系统的特点是在空间和时间上受局部、区域和远程物理强迫的高生产力集中。帕尔默长期生态研究计划旨在建立在南极半岛西侧30年的长期研究基础上，以获得对生态系统变化的新的机制和预测性理解，这些变化是对长期、次十年和由一系列过程驱动的高频“脉冲”的响应，包括长期气候变暖、自然气候变化和风暴。这些干扰改变了食物网的组成和跨越时间和空间尺度的生态相互作用，这些还没有得到很好的理解。本研究以三个多学科、相互关联的研究问题为指导。1)近连续的长期“压力”（气候变暖）、次年代际（海冰覆盖的年际变化）和短期“脉冲”（风暴）扰动如何驱动南极半岛西部食物网的变化？2)南极半岛西部的垂直和沿岸运输和混合动力学如何相互作用，以调节海洋物理的分布和变化，进而调节海洋生产力、磷虾和磷虾捕食者？3)食物网结构的变化将如何影响碳的循环和输出？采样、分析和建模涵盖多个时间尺度——从日、季、年际到年代际和空间尺度——从遥感调查的半球尺度、沿南极半岛西部夏季海洋学巡航所覆盖的区域尺度，到帕尔默站每天或每两周进行的小船采样所获得的局部尺度。自动驾驶车辆和系泊可以扩展和跨越基于船舶的采样所无法覆盖的时间和空间尺度，从而提供季节性和年度背景。过程研究包括在研究巡航期间和帕尔默站进行的操纵实验，以补充观察。广泛的建模工作将提高对驱动变化的机制和动态过程的理解。这项研究的结果将有助于对正在经历深刻变化的极地海洋生态系统中种群动态和生物地球化学过程是如何响应的基本理解。促进南极科学和研究的全球意义的教育和推广计划是该项目的重要组成部分。以极地扫盲原则为基础，该项目将通过虚拟实地考察和传播新的极地教学材料，为K-12教育工作者维持和扩大虚拟校园计划，以促进他们的专业发展和课程设置。该项目还将为课后、4-H和夏令营项目开发校外时间材料；开发和实施一个艺术和科学展览，旨在为高等教育使用，重点是吸引终身学习者；制作优质的科学传播资源，直接面向邮轮行业受众，并通过社交媒体间接建立长期研究的意识。通过协调的多样性、公平和包容计划，扩大参与范围，利用虚拟和传统的研究经验，为本科生项目提供针对代表性不足的学生的服务。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

NontechnicalClimate change is predicted to have a significant impact on marine food webs. This is especially true for polar systems where ocean biology and chemistry are strongly tied to the presence or absence of sea ice. The Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program is focused on developing a fundamental understanding of the ecology of the marine food web along the West Antarctic Peninsula. This region is undergoing some of the most rapid changes on the planet, including rapid warming of the atmosphere and ocean, large reductions in sea ice, and major retreats in glaciers. These changes are causing major changes in the food web. The program has been tracking how all parts of the food web, from single celled plants to penguins and whales, have been responding to these changes. Not all parts of the food web have been impacted equally. The changes have broad implications beyond ocean ecology, as polar marine systems play an over-sized role in the global cycling of carbon. The project also anchors an extensive education and outreach program promoting the global significance of Antarctic science and research. Using the recently developed Polar Literacy Principles as a foundation, the project will maintain and expand the virtual schoolyard program via virtual fieldtrips and dissemination of new polar instructional materials for K-12 educators to facilitate their professional development and curricula. The project will also leverage the development of Out of School Time materials for afterschool, 4-H, and summer camp programs; develop and implement an art and science exhibition designed for use in higher education focused on engaging lifelong learners; and produce high-quality science communication resources to build awareness of the National Science Foundation research directly to audiences in the cruise ship industry and indirectly through social media. The project is broadening participation through a coordinated diversity, equity, and inclusion plan leveraging both virtual and traditional Research Experience for Undergraduates programs aimed at underrepresented students.TechnicalSeasonal sea ice-influenced marine ecosystems are characterized by high productivity concentrated in space and time by local, regional, and remote physical forcing. The Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program seeks to build on three decades of long-term research along the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula to gain a new mechanistic and predictive understanding of ecosystem changes in response to disturbances spanning long-term, sub-decadal, and higher-frequency “pulses” driven by a range of processes, including long-term climate warming, natural climate variability, and storms. These disturbances alter food-web composition and ecological interactions across time and space scales that are not well understood. The research is guided by three multidisciplinary, interrelated research questions. 1) How does the near continuum of long-term “press” (climate warming), sub-decadal (interannual changes in sea-ice cover), and shorter-term “pulse” (storms) disturbance drive changes in the food web across the western Antarctic peninsula? 2) How do vertical and alongshore transport and mixing dynamics along the western Antarctic peninsula interact to modulate the distribution and variability of ocean physics, and in turn marine productivity, krill, and krill predators? 3) How will changes in the structure of the food web affect the cycling and export of carbon? Sampling, analyses, and modeling cover multiple time scales–from diel, seasonal, interannual, to decadal intervals, and space scales–from hemispheric scale investigated by remote sensing, regional scale covered by a summer oceanographic cruise along the western Antarctic peninsula, to local scale accessed by daily to biweekly small boat sampling at Palmer Station. Autonomous vehicles and moorings make it possible to expand and bridge time and space scales not covered by vessel-based sampling, thus providing a seasonal to annual context. Process studies that include manipulative experiments conducted during research cruise and at Palmer Station complement observations. An extensive modeling effort will improve the understanding of the mechanistic and dynamic processes driving change. The results of this research will contribute to a fundamental understanding of how population dynamics and biogeochemical processes are responding within a polar marine ecosystem undergoing profound change.An education and outreach program promoting the global significance of Antarctic science and research is an important part of the project. Using the Polar Literacy Principles as a foundation, the project will maintain and expand the virtual schoolyard program via virtual fieldtrips and dissemination of new polar instructional materials for K-12 educators to facilitate their professional development and curricula. The project will also leverage the development of Out of School Time materials for afterschool, 4-H, and summer camp programs; develop and implement an art and science exhibition designed for use in higher education focused on engaging lifelong learners; and produce high-quality science communication resources to build awareness of the long-term research directly to audiences in the cruise ship industry and indirectly through social media. Participation will be broadened through a coordinated diversity, equity, and inclusion plan leveraging both virtual and traditional Research Experience for Undergraduates programs aimed at underrepresented students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.