RAPID: Comparative Study of Rally Effects During the Ukraine War

RAPID：乌克兰战争期间集会效应的比较研究

• 批准号: 2224943
• 负责人: Yanna Krupnikov
• 金额: $ 14.94万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Stony Brook
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-01 至 2023-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2224943&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Comparative; Study; Rally; Effects

Scholars and journalists have long recognized a phenomenon called “rally ‘round the flag” in which citizens support their country’s leaders during a time of crisis. In the current era, however, increased political polarization may mean citizens never support leaders from an opposition party regardless of national and world events. We investigate whether a new formulation of the “rally ‘round the flag” effect has emerged: “rally ‘round democracy” – i.e., crises now lead to an increase in support for democratic principles among citizens in democratic countries instead of increased support for political leaders in those countries. We collect survey and social media data during the Russian invasion of Ukraine to study the opinions of citizens in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany and the rhetoric used by political leaders in those countries during wartime. This unique dataset of public opinion and elite rhetoric is available for use by other researchers. We conduct a multi-country, multi-wave design to test the emergence and responsiveness of “rally ‘round the flag” and "rally 'round the flag" patterns and effects during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since the research is conducted during the conflict, the concurrent social media analysis allows us to speak to differences between the public and “opinion leaders” during a crisis. The survey takes place over three waves – two during the crisis, and one after the crisis largely concludes (or becomes significantly less salient in each of the three countries). We use social media to capture elite rhetoric in each country to track what they say about the crisis and their country’s political leadership. We merge the social media data with our surveys to contextualize our participants’ media environments. In sum, this project allows us to open the “black box” that often hides public opinion on foreign policy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

学者和记者早就意识到一种被称为“团结在国旗周围”的现象，即公民在危机时期支持他们国家的领导人。然而，在当今时代，政治两极分化的加剧可能意味着无论国家和世界事件如何，公民都不会支持反对党的领导人。我们调查是否出现了一种新的“团结”在旗帜周围”效应的提法：“团结”在民主周围”--即，危机现在导致民主国家公民对民主原则的支持增加，而不是这些国家政治领导人的支持增加。我们在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间收集调查和社交媒体数据，以研究美国，英国和德国公民的意见以及这些国家的政治领导人在战时使用的言论。 这个独特的民意和精英言论数据集可供其他研究人员使用。我们进行了一个多国家，多波设计，以测试俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间“团结”在国旗周围”和“团结”在国旗周围”模式和效果的出现和响应。 由于研究是在冲突期间进行的，同时进行的社交媒体分析使我们能够在危机期间谈论公众和“意见领袖”之间的差异。 调查分三次进行-两次在危机期间，一次在危机基本结束后（或在这三个国家中变得不那么突出）。我们利用社交媒体捕捉每个国家的精英言论，追踪他们对危机和本国政治领导人的看法。我们将社交媒体数据与我们的调查合并，以了解参与者的媒体环境。总之，这个项目让我们打开了隐藏在外交政策舆论背后的“黑箱”。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。