URoL:EN Converging on the Rules of Emergence for Preventing Land Use-Induced Spillover

从概念上讲，土地利用变化被认为是人畜共患病病原体从野生动物向人类蔓延的主要驱动因素。然而，土地利用变化触发导致溢出的级联事件的机制很少被研究，也从未从一个汇聚的新兴网络的角度进行研究。在这个项目中，一个跨学科的团队将使用融合生物学、计算和社会科学的方法来确定土地利用导致的溢出效应的生命规律。他们将探索土地利用变化如何推动蝙蝠传播的亨德拉和尼帕病毒的溢出，这两种病毒是世界卫生组织优先考虑的病原体，具有流行和大流行的可能性。这项研究将探讨推动人畜共患病溢出的多种复杂程度，以及全球气候变化、当地土地利用变化和导致溢出的人类动机和行为之间的相互作用。它将提供对溢出机制的实质性洞察，为预防未来由蝙蝠衍生的病毒引起的大流行提供信息。研究人员将测试现有的假设，并开发新的理论和概念，以了解人类健康和福祉是如何与景观的健康联系在一起的。由此产生的见解可能包括如何通过生态行动(例如，栖息地恢复)、经济激励和主动行动而不是对流行病的反应性社会反应来打破土地利用导致的溢出网络。理解新兴的土地利用溢出效应网络，从而导致新冠肺炎大流行等全球紧急情况，具有巨大的社会意义。该项目将聘请不同的研究人员团队，并培训四名研究生和三名博士后学者，涵盖多个科学学科。土地利用变化是一种全球现象，随着人类活动在全球范围内的扩大，这种现象正在加速。该项目将解决土地利用变化如何推动病原体溢出到人类种群的基本组成部分，以应对新出现的蝙蝠脑炎病毒。这项研究将解决三个趋同的问题：1.出现：森林砍伐造成的栖息地丧失如何与气候周期相互作用，触发导致病毒溢出的一连串事件？2.网络运营：环境、生物、人类工程和社会系统如何相互作用，催化病毒溢出？3.预防或缓解：如何通过采取集中的生态、社会经济和以人为中心的干预措施来预防和缓解病毒溢出，以管理和传播病毒溢出的风险？研究人员将研究土地使用决策的环境、生态、社会和经济驱动因素之间的相互作用，以及此类决策对蝙蝠的病原体脱落以及蝙蝠与溢出宿主之间的人畜接触的影响。他们将制定必要的知识和风险沟通战略，将人类的反应从被动转变为主动，以破坏土地使用导致的溢出网络的负面级联，并防止未来的溢出事件。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Conceptually, land use change is recognized as a primary driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations. However, the mechanisms by which land use change triggers the cascade of events that lead to spillover are little studied and have never been investigated from the perspective of a convergent, emerging network. In this project an interdisciplinary team will use convergent biological, computational, and social science approaches to identify the rules of life for land use-induced spillover. They will explore how land use change drives spillover of bat-borne Hendra and Nipah virus, which are World Health Organization priority-pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential. This research will address the multiple scales of complexity that drive zoonotic spillover, and interactions among global climate change, local land use changes, and the human motivations and behaviors that lead to spillover. It will provide substantive insight into the mechanisms of spillover to inform the prevention of future pandemics from bat-derived viruses. The researchers will test existing assumptions and develop new theories and concepts to understand how human health and well-being is connected to the health of landscapes. Resulting insights could include how to break the land use-induced spillover network via ecological action (e.g., habitat restoration), economic incentives, and proactive actions rather than reactive social responses to pandemics. Understanding the emerging network of land use-induced spillover that leads to global emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic has tremendous societal relevance. The project will engage a diverse team of researchers and train four graduate students and three postdoctoral scholars, that encompass multiple scientific disciplines. Land use change is a global phenomenon that is accelerating as human activity expands worldwide. This project will address the fundamental components of how land use change drives pathogen spillover into the human population, for emerging bat henipaviruses. The research will address three convergent questions: 1. Emergence: How does loss of habitat through deforestation interact with climatic cycles to trigger the chain of events that lead to viral spillover? 2. Network operations: How do environmental, biotic, human-engineered, and social systems interact to catalyze viral spillover? 3. Prevention or mitigation: How can viral spillover be prevented and mitigated by a convergent approach to ecological, socio-economic, and human-centric interventions to manage and communicate the risk of spillover? Researchers will study the interactions among environmental, ecological, sociological, and economic drivers of land use decisions, and the effects of such decisions on pathogen shedding from bats and zoonotic contacts between bats and spillover hosts. They will develop the knowledge and risk communication strategies needed to change human responses from reactive to proactive, to disrupt the negative cascades of land use-induced spillover networks and prevent future spillover events.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.