URoL:EN Converging on the Rules of Emergence for Preventing Land Use-Induced Spillover

从概念上讲，土地利用变化被认为是人畜共患病原体从野生动物向人类扩散的主要驱动因素。然而，土地利用变化触发一系列导致溢出的事件的机制研究很少，而且从未从一个趋同的新兴网络的角度进行过调查。在这个项目中，一个跨学科团队将使用融合的生物学、计算和社会科学方法来确定土地使用引发的溢出效应的生命规律。他们将探讨土地利用变化如何推动蝙蝠传播的亨德拉病毒和尼帕病毒的外溢，这两种病毒是世界卫生组织具有流行和大流行潜力的重点病原体。本研究将探讨驱动人畜共患病溢出的多重复杂性尺度，以及全球气候变化、地方土地利用变化和导致溢出的人类动机和行为之间的相互作用。它将提供关于溢出机制的实质性见解，为今后预防蝙蝠源病毒的大流行提供信息。研究人员将测试现有的假设，并开发新的理论和概念，以了解人类健康和福祉如何与景观健康联系在一起。由此产生的见解可能包括如何通过生态行动（例如，栖息地恢复）、经济激励和主动行动，而不是对流行病作出被动的社会反应，打破由土地使用引起的溢出网络。了解导致COVID-19大流行等全球紧急情况的土地使用引发的溢出效应网络具有巨大的社会意义。该项目将吸引一个多元化的研究团队，培养四名研究生和三名博士后学者，涵盖多个科学学科。土地利用变化是一种全球现象，随着人类活动在世界范围内的扩大，这种现象正在加速。该项目将针对新出现的蝙蝠亨尼帕病毒，解决土地利用变化如何驱动病原体向人群溢出的基本组成部分。该研究将解决三个共同的问题：1。涌现：森林砍伐导致的栖息地丧失如何与气候周期相互作用，从而引发导致病毒溢出的连锁事件？2. 网络操作：环境、生物、人类工程和社会系统如何相互作用以催化病毒溢出？3. 预防或减轻：如何通过采取以生态、社会经济和人为中心的干预措施来管理和通报病毒溢出的风险，从而预防和减轻病毒溢出？研究人员将研究土地利用决策的环境、生态、社会和经济驱动因素之间的相互作用，以及这些决策对蝙蝠病原体脱落和蝙蝠与外溢宿主之间人畜共患接触的影响。他们将制定必要的知识和风险沟通战略，将人类的反应从被动转变为主动，破坏土地使用引发的溢出网络的负面级联，并防止未来的溢出事件。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Conceptually, land use change is recognized as a primary driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations. However, the mechanisms by which land use change triggers the cascade of events that lead to spillover are little studied and have never been investigated from the perspective of a convergent, emerging network. In this project an interdisciplinary team will use convergent biological, computational, and social science approaches to identify the rules of life for land use-induced spillover. They will explore how land use change drives spillover of bat-borne Hendra and Nipah virus, which are World Health Organization priority-pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential. This research will address the multiple scales of complexity that drive zoonotic spillover, and interactions among global climate change, local land use changes, and the human motivations and behaviors that lead to spillover. It will provide substantive insight into the mechanisms of spillover to inform the prevention of future pandemics from bat-derived viruses. The researchers will test existing assumptions and develop new theories and concepts to understand how human health and well-being is connected to the health of landscapes. Resulting insights could include how to break the land use-induced spillover network via ecological action (e.g., habitat restoration), economic incentives, and proactive actions rather than reactive social responses to pandemics. Understanding the emerging network of land use-induced spillover that leads to global emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic has tremendous societal relevance. The project will engage a diverse team of researchers and train four graduate students and three postdoctoral scholars, that encompass multiple scientific disciplines. Land use change is a global phenomenon that is accelerating as human activity expands worldwide. This project will address the fundamental components of how land use change drives pathogen spillover into the human population, for emerging bat henipaviruses. The research will address three convergent questions: 1. Emergence: How does loss of habitat through deforestation interact with climatic cycles to trigger the chain of events that lead to viral spillover? 2. Network operations: How do environmental, biotic, human-engineered, and social systems interact to catalyze viral spillover? 3. Prevention or mitigation: How can viral spillover be prevented and mitigated by a convergent approach to ecological, socio-economic, and human-centric interventions to manage and communicate the risk of spillover? Researchers will study the interactions among environmental, ecological, sociological, and economic drivers of land use decisions, and the effects of such decisions on pathogen shedding from bats and zoonotic contacts between bats and spillover hosts. They will develop the knowledge and risk communication strategies needed to change human responses from reactive to proactive, to disrupt the negative cascades of land use-induced spillover networks and prevent future spillover events.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.