The Role of Evolving Spatial Patterns of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions in the Trajectory of Climate Change

过去一个世纪的观测记录是了解和应对气候变化的重要资源，但由于温室气体（GHG）的增加并不是单独推动全球变暖和区域气候演变的因素，因此很难对这些记录进行解释。在这些混杂因素中，最大的可能是人为气溶胶（AAs）的冷却效应，特别是来自尾气管和烟囱排放的烟雾，它可能抵消了温室气体增加的一半的变暖效应。AAs的抵消作用促使了大量的检测和归因研究，试图通过确定每种因素的不同地理气候响应模式来区分温室气体、AAs和其他因素。这些研究通常确定了一种单一的固定模式作为对AA冷却的反应，如果目标是比较两个不同时期的记录，这是有道理的。但单一的固定模式是粗略的近似，因为本世纪以来排放发生了很大的变化，本世纪中叶主要是美国东部和西欧的AA源，随后转变为中国和印度的主导源。源区的变化自然会产生一种不断演变的响应模式，也可能导致响应强度的变化，因为某些地区的气候对强迫比其他地区更为敏感。该奖项下的研究考虑了机管局反应的演变和时间演变的反应模式的含义。一个目标是区分由于AA强迫变化引起的响应演变和由于气候平衡于新强迫的动力调整的速度而发生的演变。另一个是了解不断演变的AA响应模式如何影响从观测记录中得出的气候敏感性（由二氧化碳加倍引起的变暖量）的估计。除了观测记录外，这项工作还利用了社区地球系统模式（CESM）和其他气候模式的模拟集合，这些模式允许将强迫气候响应从自然气候变率的噪声中分离出来。项目中使用的集合包括所有已知的20世纪外部强迫强迫的模拟和21世纪气候强迫的预估，以及单独应用温室气体和AAs的单一强迫模拟。额外的模拟将使用简化的CESM版本进行，包括一个仅包含大气的版本和一个将海洋替换为静止的“平板”的版本。考虑到需要了解20世纪的人为气候变化及其对未来的教训，这项工作具有社会意义。AA在观测记录中的作用尤其重要，因为它使确定气候对温室气体增加的敏感性的工作复杂化：20世纪观测到的变暖可能是由于低气候敏感性结合弱AA冷却或高气候敏感性和强AA冷却。这两种可能性基本上涵盖了未来可能的气候变化范围，因此，有利于其中一种的结果将具有独特的价值。此外，该项目还支持一名博士后研究员、一名研究生和一名本科生，从而建立未来的气候科学人才队伍。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The observational record of the past century is a critical resource for understanding and addressing climate change, but the record is hard to interpret as greenhouse gas (GHG) increases do not act alone in driving global warming and regional climate evolution. Among the confounding factors perhaps the largest is the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols (AAs), in particular haze from tailpipe and smokestack emissions, which may have offset up to half of the warming effect of GHG increases. The offsetting effect of AAs has prompted numerous detection and attribution studies seeking to discriminate between GHGs, AAs, and other factors by identifying distinct geographical climate response patterns for each. These studies have commonly identified a single fixed pattern as the response to AA cooling, which makes sense if the goal is to compare two distinct periods of the record. But a single fixed pattern is a crude approximation since emissions evolved considerably over the century, with the mid-century dominated by AA sources in the eastern US and Western Europe followed by a transition to dominant sources in China and India. The change in source regions would naturally produce an evolving response pattern and could also cause changes in the strength of the response, as climate is more sensitive to forcing in some regions than in others.Research under this award considers the evolution of the AA response and the implications of a time-evolving response pattern. One goal is to distinguish between the evolution of the response due to changes in AA forcing and the evolution that occurs due to the pace of the dynamical adjustments through which the climate equilibrates to new forcing. Another is to understand how the evolving AA response pattern affects estimates of climate sensitivity (the amount of warming caused by a doubling of carbon dioxide) derived from the observed record. In addition to the observational record the work takes advantage of ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and other climate models, which allow the forced climate response to be separated from the noise of natural climate variability. The ensembles used in the project include simulations forced with all known external forcings over the 20th century and projections of climate forcings over the 21st century, as well as single-forcing simulations in which GHGs and AAs are applied in isolation. Additional simulations will be performed with reduced complexity versions of CESM including an atmosphere-only version and a version in which the ocean is replaced by a motionless "slab".The work has societal relevance given the need to understand the anthropogenic climate change of the 20th century and its lessons for the future. The role of AAs in the observational record is particularly important as it complicates efforts to determine the sensitivity of climate to GHG increases: the observed warming over the 20th century could either be due to low climate sensitivity combined with weak AA cooling or high climate sensitivity and strong AA cooling. The two possibilities essentially bracket the spectrum of possible climate futures, thus results that favor one over the other would be uniquely valuable. In addition, the project supports a postdoctoral researcher, a graduate student, and an undergraduate, thereby building the future climate science workforce.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.