CAREER: Unraveling the Role of the Varying Ocean Circulation in Climate Change

变化的海洋环流在气候变化中起着重要作用。这些环流是由海面风和海洋浮力的变化所驱动的。将风和浮力驱动的海洋环流对气候变化的影响与其他变化和相互作用的气候成分的影响区分开来是困难的。通过分离和量化驱动海洋的影响，该项目的主要目标是深入了解不同海洋环流在当前和未来气候变化中的作用。这项工作可以帮助量化海洋环流对气候的影响（如风暴路径移动和热带雨带迁移），从而推进气候预测。除了课程开发和公众宣传外，该项目还将在加州大学河滨分校培训年轻科学家。该项目将对多种气候模式应用一种新颖的整体覆盖方法，以解决几个关键问题：(1)在各种人为强迫下，风和浮力驱动的海洋环流变化的影响是什么？(2)如何认识温带大气环流与风力环流的耦合变化？(3)南大洋环流变化将如何促进气候对人为强迫的响应？(4)如何理解最新两代气候模式模拟历史大西洋经向翻转环流的明显变化及其气候影响？该活动将帮助培养1名博士后学者和1名博士生。研究者将把项目成果纳入本科课程，并指导加州大学河滨分校的本科生进行研究，在河滨博物馆举办研讨会和公开讲座，并为河滨联合学区的K-12学生开展暑期研究项目。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Varying ocean circulations play an important role in climate change. These circulations are driven by surface winds and the changing buoyancy of the sea. Separating the effects of wind- and buoyancy-driven ocean circulations on climate change from the effects of other varying and interacting climate components is difficult. By isolating and quantify the effects that drive the ocean, the main goal of this project is to obtain an in-depth understanding of the role of varying ocean circulations in on-going and future climate changes. The work can help quantify the climate impacts of the ocean circulations (such as storm track shift and tropical rain-belt migration), thereby advancing climate predictions. Along with course developments and public outreach, the project will train young scientists at the University of California Riverside. The project will apply a novel ensemble-overriding method to multiple climate models to address several key questions: (1) What are the effects of wind- and buoyancy-driven ocean circulation changes under various anthropogenic forcings? (2) How to understand the coupled changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation and wind-driven gyre circulation? (3) How will Southern Ocean circulation change contribute to climate response to anthropogenic forcing? (4) How to understand the distinct changes and climate impacts of the simulated historical Atlantic meridional overturning circulations between the latest two generations of climate models? The activities will help train one postdoctoral scholar and one Ph.D. student. The investigator will incorporate project results into an undergraduate course and mentor undergraduate students in research at University of California Riverside, conduct workshops and give public lectures at Museum of Riverside, and conduct summer research program for Riverside Unified School District K-12 students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.