CAREER: Unraveling the Role of the Varying Ocean Circulation in Climate Change

不同的海洋环流在气候变化中起着重要作用。这些环流是由表面风和海面浮力的变化驱动的。很难将风和浮力驱动的海洋环流对气候变化的影响与其他变化和相互作用的气候因素的影响分开。通过分离和量化驱动海洋的影响，该项目的主要目标是深入了解不同的海洋环流在当前和未来气候变化中的作用。这项工作有助于量化海洋环流的气候影响(如风暴路径转移和热带雨带迁移)，从而提高气候预测。除了课程开发和公众宣传，该项目还将在加州大学河滨分校培训年轻科学家。该项目将把一种新的集合优先方法应用于多个气候模式，以解决几个关键问题：(1)在各种人为强迫下，风和浮力驱动的海洋环流变化的影响是什么？(2)如何理解温带外大气环流和风生环流的耦合变化？(3)南大洋环流变化将如何促进气候对人为强迫的响应？(4)如何理解最近两代气候模式之间模拟的历史大西洋经向翻转环流的明显变化和气候影响？这些活动将帮助培养一名博士后学者和一名博士后学生。调查员将把项目成果纳入一门本科课程，并指导加州大学河滨大学的本科生进行研究，在河滨博物馆举办研讨会和公开演讲，并为河滨联合学区K-12的学生开展暑期研究计划。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Varying ocean circulations play an important role in climate change. These circulations are driven by surface winds and the changing buoyancy of the sea. Separating the effects of wind- and buoyancy-driven ocean circulations on climate change from the effects of other varying and interacting climate components is difficult. By isolating and quantify the effects that drive the ocean, the main goal of this project is to obtain an in-depth understanding of the role of varying ocean circulations in on-going and future climate changes. The work can help quantify the climate impacts of the ocean circulations (such as storm track shift and tropical rain-belt migration), thereby advancing climate predictions. Along with course developments and public outreach, the project will train young scientists at the University of California Riverside. The project will apply a novel ensemble-overriding method to multiple climate models to address several key questions: (1) What are the effects of wind- and buoyancy-driven ocean circulation changes under various anthropogenic forcings? (2) How to understand the coupled changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation and wind-driven gyre circulation? (3) How will Southern Ocean circulation change contribute to climate response to anthropogenic forcing? (4) How to understand the distinct changes and climate impacts of the simulated historical Atlantic meridional overturning circulations between the latest two generations of climate models? The activities will help train one postdoctoral scholar and one Ph.D. student. The investigator will incorporate project results into an undergraduate course and mentor undergraduate students in research at University of California Riverside, conduct workshops and give public lectures at Museum of Riverside, and conduct summer research program for Riverside Unified School District K-12 students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.