D-ISN: Constraining Illicit Decision Making Within and Across Dynamic Supply Networks

本研究的目的是开发和评估非法决策的综合理论。本研究考察了个人如何、何时以及为何选择从事合法与非法活动，以实现利润最大化或在其行业内获得竞争优势。使用网络方法，该项目调查了个人遵守或无视法律法规的决定如何影响供应网络中其他参与者的决策。调查结果将确定可以通过法律、政策、法规和商业惯例实施的有针对性的干预措施，以限制从事非法活动的行为者所获得的利益。该项目通过推动制定政策和实践的新方法，通过限制非法决策来支持国家繁荣，从而服务于国家利益，并将促进科学进步，鼓励利益相关者之间进行新的对话，以找到破坏供应网络内非法活动的方法。该项目采用多学科视角，包括犯罪学、商业和供应链以及运筹学等领域的pi。该项目使用基于网络代理的模型（NABM）来模拟由合法、犯罪和易受非法影响的参与者组成的网络社区在交易层面上的非法决策。该项目运用竞争理论，在效用最大化框架下，利用罪犯决策的理性选择视角，对支撑非法供应网络的竞争动态进行建模。这项研究将根据按摩治疗行业的特点开发初步模型，并将研究结果扩展应用于其他涉及非法供应网络的行业，如农业、药品和假冒商品。该项目将揭示两个对理解和破坏非法供应网络至关重要的基本问题：(1)影响消费者和供应商的竞争动态推动犯罪活动；(2)民事、刑事和营利性商业法规在不断变化的市场条件中所起的作用。项目团队将与来自学术界、工业界和执法部门的合作者合作，开发一个可推广的、与领域无关的框架，以指导ISN中断策略，以限制潜在违法者的成本效益计算。该项目将在一个多学科的环境中培养研究生，他们将有能力解决复杂的社会问题。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The objective of this Disrupting Operations of Illicit Supply Networks (D-ISN) research study is to develop and evaluate an integrated theory of illicit decision making. This research examines how, when, and why individuals choose to engage in legitimate versus illicit activities to maximize profits or gain a competitive advantage within their industry. Using a network approach, the project investigates how individual decisions to comply with or disregard laws and regulations affect the decisions of other actors within a supply network. The findings will identify targeted interventions that can be enacted through laws, policies, regulations, and business practices to constrain the benefits gained by actors engaging in illicit activity. This project serves the national interest by advancing new ways to create policies and practices to support national prosperity by constraining illicit decision making and will promote the progress of science to encourage new dialogues among stakeholders to find ways to disrupt illicit activities within a supply network. The project takes a multidisciplinary perspective, with PIs from the fields of criminology, business and supply chains, and operations research.This project uses a networked agent-based model (NABM) to simulate illicit decision making at the transaction level among a networked community of competing legitimate, criminal, and illicit-susceptible actors. Applying theories of competition, the project utilizes the rational choice perspective of offender decision making within a utility maximization framework to model the competitive dynamics underpinning illicit supply networks. This research will develop initial models based on characteristics of the massage therapy industry, and the findings will be extended in applied to other industries that also involve illicit supply networks, such as agriculture, pharmaceutical drugs, and counterfeit items. This project will expose two fundamental issues essential for understanding and disrupting illicit supply networks: (1) the competitive dynamics affecting consumers and suppliers that drive criminal activities; and (2) the role that civil, criminal, and for-profit business regulations play in shifting market conditions. The project team will engage with collaborators from academia, industry, and law enforcement to develop a generalizable, domain-agnostic framework to direct ISN disruption strategies to constrain the cost-benefit calculation of potential offenders. The project will educate graduate students within a multi-disciplinary environment who will be capable of addressing complex societal issues.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.