CAREER: Inference on Macroeconomic Heterogeneity

职业：宏观经济异质性推断

• 批准号: 2238049
• 负责人: Mikkel Plagborg-Moller
• 金额: $ 40.6万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-03-01 至 2028-02-29
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2238049&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Inference; Macroeconomic; Heterogeneity

Recent research on the aggregate economy tries to understand how aggregate economic performance has differential impacts on individual economic units. This is partly due to increased access to detailed micro-level data sets, increased and cheaper computing power, and partly due to growing concerns among policymakers about inequality. While much progress has been made in both theory and empirical methods of understanding the links between inequality and aggregate economic activity, current statistical methods used by academic researchers, central banks, and other policy institutions are not designed to account for these differences. This proposal consists of four projects that will develop new and modern econometric tools to improve empirical research on differential effects of macroeconomic outcomes. The project will also develop video materials to educate students and practitioners in these econometric tools. The results of this research project will improve macroeconomics policies that increase economic growth as well as reduce inequality, thus improve the well-being of the average American. This CAREER research proposal will use three projects to develop new econometric methods for studying heterogeneity in macroeconomics. The first project develops an inference procedure with formal coverage that guarantees visualizing multi-dimensional cross-sectional heterogeneity, such as heterogeneity in dynamic response profiles across groups of households or firms. The second project provides a causal reinterpretation of popular methods for estimating temporal heterogeneity and nonlinearities in time series data, such as state- or sign-dependence of impulse responses. The third project runs a large-scale simulation study of impulse response estimators and provides quantitative recommendations on how to choose between the many available procedures. Finally, the project proposes a plan for developing a collection of interactive educational materials on modern macro-econometric methods. Besides the contribution to econometric theory, the results of this research project will also improve macroeconomics policies and increase economic growth as well as reduce inequality, thus improve the well-being of the average American.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

最近对总量经济的研究试图了解总量经济表现如何对单个经济单位产生不同的影响。这部分是由于获得详细的微观层面数据集的机会增加，计算能力增加和更便宜，部分是由于政策制定者对不平等的担忧日益增加。虽然在理解不平等与总体经济活动之间联系的理论和实证方法方面都取得了很大进展，但学术研究人员、中央银行和其他政策机构目前使用的统计方法并不是为了解释这些差异。 该提案由四个项目组成，这些项目将开发新的现代计量经济工具，以改进对宏观经济结果差异影响的实证研究。该项目还将制作录像材料，教育学生和从业人员使用这些计量经济学工具。 该研究项目的结果将改善宏观经济政策，增加经济增长，减少不平等，从而改善普通美国人的福祉。这个职业研究计划将使用三个项目来开发新的计量经济学方法来研究宏观经济学中的异质性。 第一个项目开发了一个推理程序，正式的覆盖面，保证可视化多维横截面异质性，如异质性的动态响应配置文件跨家庭或企业组。第二个项目提供了一个因果重新解释流行的方法，估计时间序列数据的时间异质性和非线性，如状态或符号依赖的脉冲响应。 第三个项目对脉冲响应估计器进行了大规模的模拟研究，并就如何在众多可用程序中进行选择提供了定量建议。最后，该项目提出了一项计划，以编制一套关于现代宏观经济计量方法的交互式教材。 除了对计量经济学理论的贡献外，该研究项目的成果还将改善宏观经济政策，促进经济增长，减少不平等，从而改善普通美国人的福祉。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。