CAREER: Governance of Computer Models in Sustainable Water Quality Management

计算机模型被用来理解和管理现代生活的几乎方方面面，并越来越多地嵌入组织和机构中。然而，尽管输入了科学数据，但建模受到社会和政治因素的严重影响。在我们最紧迫的环境问题的管理中尤其如此，其中有许多不同的行为者以及相互冲突的价值观和利益。通过对国际水质管理组织的深入分析，该项目阐述了如何制作模型的过程，以及如何通过更好的“模型治理”来改进这一过程--组织内部采用的规则和过程，以形成围绕如何开发和使用模型的个人和群体行动。更好地理解模式治理将改善环境政策中使用科学的方式。该项目正在为实践者开发研讨会材料，以及新的本科生和K12经验，将环境科学和政策领域联系起来。该项目的总体目标是建立一个量化的元模型，可以预测科学模型的未来状态。该项目正在确定参与者和治理结构如何塑造模型开发的参数、条件和过程。总体目标由三个相互关联的活动支持：(1)系统动力学建模，(2)比较案例研究，以及(3)将为元模型的未来迭代提供信息的教育、推广和参与。该项目正在巩固模式治理的综合理论，包括定性框架和定量可操作性。改进的计算机模型治理将改变人们对以科学为基础的环境政策的理解，包括建立公众对计算机模型的信任，以及减少模型中嵌入的社会和政治因素造成的不确定性。量化元模型将为模块化社会生态系统建模创造一个关键环节：即组织用于决策的计算机模型中嵌入的知识如何以迭代和自适应的方式更新。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Computer models are used to understand and manage nearly every aspect of modern life and are increasingly embedded in organizations and institutions. However, despite scientific data inputs, modeling is heavily influenced by social and political factors. This is especially true in the management of our most pressing environmental problems, in which there are many diverse actors and conflicting values and interests. Through in-depth analysis of international water quality management organizations, this project addresses the process of how models are made and how this process can be improved through better “model governance” – the rules and processes adopted within an organization to shape individual and group actions around how models are developed and used. Better understanding of model governance will improve how science is used in environmental policies. The project is developing workshop materials for practitioners, as well as novel undergraduate and K12 experiences to link the fields of environmental science and policy.The project’s overall objective is to build a quantitative meta-model that can predict future states of a scientific model. The project is identifying the parameters, conditions, and processes that how actors and governance structures shape model development. The overall objective is supported by three interconnected activities: (1) systems dynamics modeling, (2) comparative case study, and (3) education, outreach, and engagement that will inform future iterations of the meta-model. The project is solidifying an integrative theory of model governance, comprising both a qualitative framework and quantitative operationalization. Improved computer model governance will transform understanding of science-based environmental policy, including building public trust in computer models and reducing uncertainty that is created by social and political factors embedded in models. The quantitative meta-model will create a key link for modular social-ecological systems modeling: that of how the knowledge embedded in the computer models that organizations use for decision-making is updated in an iterative and adaptive way.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.