Technologies of Futuring: Computational Modeling Practices at the Intersection of Environmental Governance and Environmental Justice

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Technocrats and scientists working in state-sanctioned programs for environmental governance increasingly use computational models to fulfill a plurality of legislative mandates. These mandates include assessing regulatory actions in terms of environmental justice, prompting experts to invite historically disadvantaged groups to participate in modeling environmental scenarios. Modeling practices are thus mediating whether and how environmental justice concerns are represented and enacted in environmental governance programs. However, social scientific research demonstrates that such mediation practices can obscure, rather than reveal, social and cultural differences, undermining the potential for transformative change. There is thus a need to evaluate whether and how model-mediated participation can lead to the robust implementation of state-driven, justice-oriented environmental governance programs. This project evaluates the case of California’s model-driven decarbonization plan. It examines why technocrats use environmental modeling tools for mediation and attends to how participating marginalized groups assert their desires for better political representation and social recognition. This project will contribute to the public understanding of technoscientific modes of environmental governance, shedding light on how community and activist participation can reshape the tools of the state. Insights from this project will be shared via a public website and report and will be useful to policymakers, environmental justice activists, community groups, scientists, and state agencies.The project aims to analyze the potential for justice-oriented participation through a cluster of energy, economic, and environmental models aimed at decarbonization. This study will draw on participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and extensive model analyses with technocratic experts and activists. Questions guiding this project include: 1) What happens when computational models' inputs and outputs cannot capture marginalized groups' needs? 2) How do these groups assert their knowledge to ensure robust development and implementation of decarbonization plans? Results from this study will enhance theories of civic participation in technoscientific forms of environmental justice and governance.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.