Impacts of Arctic freshwater export on the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean circulation

这项研究试图了解北极冰的融化和额外的北极降水如何影响北大西洋的洋流。这项研究还询问，北极融化的水和降水有多少可以归因于人类(人为影响)？该项目将使用经过验证和测试的海洋模型来确定北极水的命运和亚极地北大西洋异常淡水的来源。北极水域将通过包括人工智能在内的几种新方法进行跟踪。对于更广泛的影响，该项目将提供对北极人类变化及其对北大西洋洋流影响的了解。这些变化应该会通过与气候有关的大西洋经向翻转环流的减弱来影响全球气候。此外，该项目将支持一名研究生和本科生的研究经验。研究结果将通过典型的学术活动和公众宣传传播。这项研究试图观察、了解和预测北极淡水的出口、传播和对亚极地北大西洋的影响。这项研究将通过与a)北极淡水异常的命运、b)北极北大西洋次极地淡水异常的来源、以及c)北极淡水输出对北极次极地北大西洋的影响的准备工作有关的具体活动，确定北极次极地北大西洋人为淡水更新信号的时间和特征。新的工具将被用于欧拉异常跟踪和拉格朗日轨迹分析，来自模式状态估计(ECCO，ASTE)、再分析(ORAS5)、强迫高分辨率海洋模式(LLC4320)和耦合投影(CESM2透镜)的输出。对于更广泛的影响，该项目将提供关于北极人为清新及其对亚极地北大西洋的影响的理解，该影响通过浮力强迫减弱大西洋子午线颠覆环流来影响全球气候。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This study seeks to understand how the melting of Arctic ice and extra Arctic precipitation can influence the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. The study also asks how much of the Arctic meltwater and precipitation can be attributed to humans (anthropogenic influence)? The project will use verified and tested ocean models to determine the fate of Arctic water and the sources of unusually fresh water in the subpolar North Atlantic. Arctic waters will be tracked with several novel approaches, including artificial intelligence. For broader impacts, the project will provide understanding on the changes in the Arctic attributable to humans and their impact on the North Atlantic currents. These changes should influence global climate through the weakening of the climate-related Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Moreover, the project will support one graduate student and undergraduate students in research experiences. Results will be disseminated through typical academic activities and outreach to the general public.This study seeks to observe, understand and anticipate the export, propagation, and impacts of Arctic-derived fresh water on the subpolar North Atlantic. The study will identify the timing and character of the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal in the subpolar North Atlantic through specific activities related to a) the fates of Arctic freshwater anomalies, b) the sources of subpolar North Atlantic freshwater anomalies, and c) preparations for the impacts of Arctic freshwater export on the subpolar North Atlantic. Novel tools will be applied for Eulerian anomaly tracking and Lagrangian trajectory analysis to outputs from model state estimates (ECCO, ASTE), reanalysis (ORAS5), forced high-resolution ocean model (LLC4320), and coupled projections (CESM2 LENS). For broader impacts, the project will provide understanding on the Arctic anthropogenic freshening and its impact on the subpolar North Atlantic, which influences global climate through the buoyancy-forced weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.