Daily Watcher Tracking Survey and Monitoring the Effects of War on Public Opinion

参与外部战争考验专制政权领导人协调政策的能力。然而，调查数据往往表明，专制政权中的大多数公民继续支持领导人的军事行动。为了理解独裁领导人的战略和这些战略行动对国内的影响，研究民众如何看待战争以及如何实时应对事态发展是至关重要的。《观察家跟踪调查》是一项针对卷入外部战争的专制国家的民意调查，每天进行一次，具有全国代表性。研究人员监测了公众对一系列政治问题的态度变化，这些问题与伊拉克的战争和国内的政治发展有关。他们还使用实验设计来了解政府的宣传和虚假信息运动如何影响公民的态度和信仰。初步数据显示，官方媒体在民众（包括在网上）传播虚假言论方面非常有效。观察者调查具有以下更广泛的影响：(1)该项目提供了关于战争时期专制国家国内公众舆论状态和方向的关键实时信息，(2)它揭示了国家宣传和虚假信息的有效性，这是一个主要的国家安全问题，(3)它为专制政治的政策制定者和学者提供了一个独特的大型细粒度数据集。学者们对威权政府如何塑造公众舆论并保持支持的机制仍然知之甚少，尤其是在外部战争等危机时刻。以往的民意调查经常显示，专制国家的公民支持政府的军事行动。然而，由于这些调查很少进行，因此很难对这些国家公众舆论变化的原因和后果作出结论。为了更好地隔离个人事件和媒体叙述的影响，PIs发起了“观察家跟踪调查”，这是一项关于政治态度和信仰的每日、具有全国代表性的调查。《观察家》的调查跟踪了一段时间内的关键政治指标，并使用调查实验来评估展开宣传叙事的效果。这种研究民意的方法比传统的调查更具活力，因为受访者接受的待遇（例如，不断变化的宣传叙述和军事发展）不是预先确定的，而是随着战争的发展而有机地出现的。研究人员将他们的数据收集延长到2023年，并使用500名受访者的样本规模，使他们能够更准确地发现公众舆论的变化。本研究对威权政体中审查制度、宣传和公众舆论等相关课题的学术研究做出了重要贡献。观察者的数据揭示了国家宣传背后的机制及其对公民态度的影响。反过来，这项研究有助于学者们更好地理解独裁者是如何维持公众对军事行动等高成本努力的支持的。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Participation in an external war test ability of leaders in authoritarian regimes to coordinate their policies. Yet survey data often indicates that a majority of citizens in authoritarian regimes continue to support the leader's military operations. To understand authoritarian leader's strategies and the domestic implications of these strategic actions, it is crucial to study how the population perceives the war and how it reacts to developments in real time. The Watcher Tracking Survey is a daily, nationally representative survey of public opinion in an authoritarian state that is involved in an external war. The researchers monitor changes in public attitudes toward a series of political issues related to the war in and political developments inside the state. They also use experimental designs to understand how the government’s propaganda and disinformation campaigns affect citizens’ attitudes and beliefs. Preliminary data suggest that state media outlets are highly effective at spreading false narratives within the population, including online. The Watcher survey has the following Broader Impacts (1) the project provides crucial and real-time information on the state and direction of domestic public opinion in an authoritarian state in a time of war, (2) it sheds light on the effectiveness of state propaganda and disinformation–a major national security concern, and (3) it generates a uniquely large and fine-grained dataset for policymakers and scholars of authoritarian politics. Scholars still have a weak understanding of the mechanisms by which an authoritarian government shapes public opinion and maintains support, particularly during moments of crisis like external war. Previous public opinion surveys often show that citizens in authoritarian countries support their government's military operations. Yet the infrequency of these surveys made it difficult to draw conclusions about the causes and consequences of changes in public opinion in these countries. To better isolate the effects of individual events and media narratives, the PIs launched the Watcher Tracking Survey, a daily, nationally representative survey of political attitudes and beliefs. The Watcher survey tracks key political indicators over time and uses survey experiments to assess the effects of unfolding propaganda narratives. This method of studying public opinion is more dynamic than traditional surveys, as the treatments respondents receive (e.g., shifting propaganda narratives and military developments) are not predetermined, but rather emerge organically as the war develops. The researchers extend their data collection through 2023 and use a sample size to 500 respondents that enables them to detect shifts in public opinion more precisely. This research makes important contributions to scholarship on topics related to censorship, propaganda, and public opinion in authoritarian regimes. The Watcher data shed light on the mechanisms behind state propaganda and its effects on citizen attitudes. In turn, the research helps scholars understand better how autocrats sustain public support for high-cost endeavors like military campaigns.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.