Collaborative Research: NSFGEO-NERC: Hurricane Risk Amplification and Changing North Atlantic Natural Disasters

合作研究：NSFGEO-NERC：飓风风险放大和改变北大西洋自然灾害

基本信息

批准号：
2244917
负责人：
Kevin Reed
金额：
$ 40.91万
依托单位：
SUNY at Stony Brook
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2023-03-01 至 2026-02-28
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2244917&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research NSFGEO NERC Hurricane

项目摘要

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.It is a remarkable fact that hurricanes forming in the tropical Atlantic can pose a threat to the northeastern US and Western Europe, both well outside the tropics and on opposite sides of the Atlantic. The ability of hurricanes to inflict damage at such long range is well known in the US, with recent examples including Sandy in 2012 and Ida in 2021. On the other side of the basin Ophelia (2017) and Leslie (2018) caused severe damage in Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Such storms are a natural topic for collaboration between NSF and NERC given their transatlantic impacts.Research under this award seeks to understand the Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall at higher latitudes, taking into account their full lifecycle and impacts. Lifecycle is an important consideration as hurricanes can transform considerably as they encounter the cool ocean surface, frontal temperature contrasts, and upper-level ridges, troughs, and jet streams of the middle latitudes. By the time a hurricane makes landfall in Ireland or New York, it is likely to have undergone at least a partial transition from the warm core, vertically aligned structure of a tropical cyclone to the cold-core, westward-tilted structure and larger areal extent of an extratropical cyclone. The lifecycle transitions of these hurricanes complicate efforts to understand and predict their behavior and anticipate changes in their frequency and intensity due to climate variability and change. Changes in hurricane structure also create important differences in impacts, for instance storms which retain their tropical characteristics at landfall are typically more damaging, but storms which have largely transformed into extratropical cyclones are considerably more common. They can also create disruptions over a wider area, as was the case with Hurricane Sandy.A key challenge in work on hurricanes at higher latitudes, referred to here as cyclones of tropical origin (CTOs), is scarcity of observations, as CTOs occur infrequently and the observed record is relatively short. This project takes advantage of several archives of model simulations which substantially augment the observations, including ensembles of seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The forecast ensembles contain many examples of CTOs which could have happened but did not, thus boosting the sample size for CTOs from perhaps 3 per year to 300 per year. The project also uses specialized models to look at hurricane impacts, including a high-resolution coastal ocean model to simulate storm surge and a hydrological model for flooding.The project has societal value due to its emphasis on hazardous weather events. The project includes a concerted effort to provide actionable guidance to decision makers. The ensembles available from seasonal forecasts and other model outputs allow consideration of a wider variety of CTOs than have occurred in the observational record, thus better representing the range of possibilities. The application of storm surge and flood models to these simulated storms provides further guidance on the range of possible CTO impacts. The range of possible storms and their impacts is synthesized in the form of storylines, which are narrative descriptions of the events and their impacts to be used for planning purposes. The project supports a postdoctoral researcher, thereby promoting the future workforce in this research area.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局（NSF/GEO）和英国国家环境研究委员会（NERC）共同资助的项目，该项目通过NSF/GEO-GEO-NERC领先机构协议。该协议允许该机构提交和同行评审的一项联合提案，其调查员的预算比例最大。在成功确定奖励建议后，每个机构都资助了支持各自国家机构的科学家的预算比例。这是一个了不起的事实，即在热带大西洋地区形成的飓风可能对美国东北部和西欧构成威胁，这些飓风都在热带地区和大西洋相反的地方都构成了威胁。在美国众所周知，飓风在如此远处造成损害的能力，包括2012年的桑迪（Sandy）和2021年的艾达（Ida）在内。鉴于其跨大西洋的影响，此类风暴是NSF和NERC之间合作的自然话题。根据该奖项的研究，旨在理解其全部生命周期和影响的大西洋飓风，这些飓风在更高的纬度上降落。生命周期是一个重要的考虑因素，因为飓风在遇到凉爽的海洋表面，前温度对比以及中纬度的高层山脊，麻烦和喷气流时会仔细转变。到飓风在爱尔兰或纽约登陆时，它很可能至少从温暖的核心，热带气旋的垂直对准结构到冷核，向西倾斜的结构和较大的地面旋风范围的部分过渡。这些飓风的生命周期过渡使人们的努力变得复杂，以理解和预测其行为，并预测由于气候变化和变化而导致的频率和强度的变化。飓风结构的变化也会在影响上造成重要差异，例如，在登陆时保留其热带特征的风暴通常更具破坏性，但是在很大程度上转化为再次变成了激怒的气旋的风暴被认为更为普遍。他们还可以像飓风桑迪一样在荒野区域造成干扰。在飓风上的关键挑战较高的纬度（此处称为热带起源的旋风（CTOS）），是对观察的稀缺，因为CTOS不断地发生，并且观察到的记录相对较短。该项目利用了几个模型模拟的档案，这些档案大大增加了观察结果，包括欧洲中范围天气预测集合中心的季节性森林合奏包含许多可能发生但没有发生的CTO示例，从而将CTO的样本量从每年的每年300增加到300。该项目还使用专门模型来研究飓风的影响，包括高分辨率的沿海海洋模型来模拟风暴潮和洪水的水文模型。该项目的社会价值由于其对危险天气事件的重视。该项目包括为决策者提供可行的指导的一致努力。从季节性森林和其他模型产出中提供的合奏允许考虑多种CTO，而不是观察性记录中发生的多种CTO，从而更好地代表了可能性范围。风暴潮和洪水模型在这些模拟风暴中的应用为可能的CTO影响范围提供了进一步的指导。可能的风暴及其影响的范围以故事情节的形式合成，这是事件的叙述及其用于计划目的的影响。该项目支持一名博士后研究人员，从而促进了该研究领域的未来劳动力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响来审查标准的评估，被认为是珍贵的支持。