The Dynamic Impact of Immigration on Wages, Employment, Technology and Innovation

移民引发的劳动力供应冲击引发了经济中所有参与者的反应：工人、公司和移民本身。有三个主要的调整渠道：工资和就业、技术和产出结构。现有的研究大多集中在第一个渠道，很少有研究着眼于通过企业生产的产品或其相对数量，以及通过创新或差异化地采用市场上可用的技术来调整企业。由于缺乏适当的公司一级数据，大部分集中于公司调整的工作将在行业一级进行。此外，几乎没有任何工作利用直接的技术措施或考虑替代结果，如利润和产品组合。在这个项目的第一阶段，我们的主要重点是通过当地工资和就业调整来应对移民，通过回流移民改变移民构成，以及移民对特定技能的需求对他们的生产力的影响，以及对东道国的贡献。这项研究对现有文献做出了一些贡献，例如，通过提供估计方法的稳健性分析，使用新的识别策略，以及研究原住民对移民流入的各种反应渠道。到目前为止，该项目阶段已发表(即将发表)三篇论文，一篇草稿，一个项目正在进行中。该项目的第二阶段将把重点放在公司的调整上，而不是工人。这一阶段包括三个相互关联的项目(一)-(三)，从不同的角度处理对移民引起的劳动力供应冲击的坚定调整。在(I)中，我们分析了企业技术和组织(T&O)调整对劳动力供应冲击的各种利润率，以及劳动力构成和工资的调整，以及这些因素是如何相互作用的。我们调查其他很少研究的企业应对措施，例如退出工会协议、产品开发和产品创新。在(Ii)中，我们专注于T&O调整对劳动力供应冲击的动态，以调查各种潜在的企业反应渠道的动态和时机，以及企业间调整的异质性。在(Iii)中，我们使用一种设计来深入分析企业的反应，该设计为我们提供了移民和企业内部的本地人在受到不可预见的移民引发的劳动力供应冲击后的纵向信息。例如，我们将研究新移民是否会压低工资，以及企业如何在短期和长期内从中受益。我们的项目将使用高质量的数据，并采用新的方法和替代的识别策略，以克服以前研究面临的限制。分析基于IAB提供的几个数据源，这些数据源将在内部使用，或通过伦敦大学学院的IAB Fdz进行。通过CADAL项目设想了与IAB的合作。

Immigration-induced labour supply shocks trigger responses by all agents in the economy: workers, firms and migrants themselves. There are three primary adjustment channels: wages and employment, technology, and the mix of output. Most of the existing research has focused on the first channel, with only few studies looking at adjustment of firms through the products they produce or their relative quantities, and through innovation or differential adoption of technologies available on the market. The lack of suitable firm-level data led most of the work that focusses on firm adjustment to be carried out at the industry level. Further, hardly any work exists that utilises direct measures of technology or considers alternative outcomes such as profits and product mix.In the 1st phase of this project, our principal focus is on the responses to immigration through native wage and employment adjustment, changes in immigrant composition through return migration, and the effect of demand for specific skills of immigrants on their productivity, and contribution to the host country. This research makes a number of contributions to the existing literature, e.g. by providing analysis of the robustness of estimation approaches, using novel identification strategies and studying various channels of native responses to immigrant inflows. This project phase has so far produced three published (forthcoming) papers, one draft paper, and one project is ongoing. The 2nd phase of the project will focus instead of workers, on the adjustment of firms. This phase consists of three connected projects (i)-(iii) that address firm adjustment to immigration-induced labour supply shocks from different perspectives. In (i) we analyse the various margins of firm technology and organisational (T&O) adjustment to labour supply shocks, as well as adjustment in workforce composition and in wages, and how these interact. We investigate alternative and rarely researched firm responses, such as withdrawing from union agreements, product development, and product innovation. In (ii) we focus on the dynamics of T&O adjustment to labour supply shocks, to investigate the dynamics and timing of the various potential channels of firm response, and heterogeneity of adjustment across firms. In (iii) we provide in depth analysis of firm responses using a design that provides us with longitudinal information of immigrants and natives within firms after being hit by an unforeseen immigration induced labour supply shock. We will study for instance whether new immigrants underbid wages, and how firms may benefit from this in the short and long run. Our project will use high quality data and employ new methods and alternative identification strategies to overcome the limitations previous studies have faced. Analysis is based on several data sources provided by the IAB, which will be used in-house, or through the IAB FDZ at UCL. Collaboration with the IAB is envisaged through the CADAL project.