The Dynamic Impact of Immigration on Wages, Employment, Technology and Innovation

移民对工资、就业、技术和创新的动态影响

• 批准号: 256661698
• 负责人: Professor Christian Dustmann, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/256661698?language=en
• 关键词: Dynamic; Impact; Immigration; Wages; Employment

Immigration-induced labour supply shocks trigger responses by all agents in the economy: workers, firms and migrants themselves. There are three primary adjustment channels: wages and employment, technology, and the mix of output. Most of the existing research has focused on the first channel, with only few studies looking at adjustment of firms through the products they produce or their relative quantities, and through innovation or differential adoption of technologies available on the market. The lack of suitable firm-level data led most of the work that focusses on firm adjustment to be carried out at the industry level. Further, hardly any work exists that utilises direct measures of technology or considers alternative outcomes such as profits and product mix.In the 1st phase of this project, our principal focus is on the responses to immigration through native wage and employment adjustment, changes in immigrant composition through return migration, and the effect of demand for specific skills of immigrants on their productivity, and contribution to the host country. This research makes a number of contributions to the existing literature, e.g. by providing analysis of the robustness of estimation approaches, using novel identification strategies and studying various channels of native responses to immigrant inflows. This project phase has so far produced three published (forthcoming) papers, one draft paper, and one project is ongoing. The 2nd phase of the project will focus instead of workers, on the adjustment of firms. This phase consists of three connected projects (i)-(iii) that address firm adjustment to immigration-induced labour supply shocks from different perspectives. In (i) we analyse the various margins of firm technology and organisational (T&O) adjustment to labour supply shocks, as well as adjustment in workforce composition and in wages, and how these interact. We investigate alternative and rarely researched firm responses, such as withdrawing from union agreements, product development, and product innovation. In (ii) we focus on the dynamics of T&O adjustment to labour supply shocks, to investigate the dynamics and timing of the various potential channels of firm response, and heterogeneity of adjustment across firms. In (iii) we provide in depth analysis of firm responses using a design that provides us with longitudinal information of immigrants and natives within firms after being hit by an unforeseen immigration induced labour supply shock. We will study for instance whether new immigrants underbid wages, and how firms may benefit from this in the short and long run. Our project will use high quality data and employ new methods and alternative identification strategies to overcome the limitations previous studies have faced. Analysis is based on several data sources provided by the IAB, which will be used in-house, or through the IAB FDZ at UCL. Collaboration with the IAB is envisaged through the CADAL project.

移民引起的劳动力供应冲击引发了经济中所有行为主体的反应：工人、公司和移民本身。有三个主要的调整渠道：工资和就业、技术和产出结构。大多数现有研究都集中在第一个渠道，只有少数研究通过企业生产的产品或其相对数量，以及通过创新或区别采用市场上现有的技术来探讨企业的调整。由于缺乏适当的公司一级数据，大部分侧重于公司调整的工作只能在行业一级进行。此外，几乎没有任何工作存在，利用技术的直接措施，或考虑替代结果，如利润和产品组合。在本项目的第一阶段，我们的主要重点是通过本地工资和就业调整，移民组成的变化，通过返回移民的反应，以及对移民的特定技能的需求对他们的生产力的影响，以及对东道国的贡献。这项研究作出了一些贡献，现有的文献，例如，通过提供分析的鲁棒性的估计方法，使用新的识别策略和研究各种渠道的本地响应移民流入。这一项目阶段迄今已发表了三份（即将发表的）文件，一份文件草稿，还有一个项目正在进行中。该项目的第二阶段将侧重于企业的调整，而不是工人。这一阶段包括三个相互关联的项目（一）-（三），从不同的角度处理企业对移民引起的劳动力供应冲击的调整。在（i）中，我们分析了企业技术和组织（T&O）调整对劳动力供应冲击的各种边际，以及劳动力构成和工资的调整，以及这些因素如何相互作用。我们调查了替代的，很少研究公司的反应，如退出工会协议，产品开发和产品创新。在（ii）中，我们专注于T&O调整劳动力供给冲击的动态，调查企业响应的各种潜在渠道的动态和时间，以及企业之间的调整异质性。在（iii）中，我们使用一种设计，为我们提供了企业内部的移民和本地人的纵向信息后，受到不可预见的移民引起的劳动力供应冲击的深入分析。例如，我们将研究新移民是否压低工资，以及公司如何在短期和长期内从中受益。我们的项目将使用高质量的数据，并采用新的方法和替代识别策略，以克服以前的研究所面临的局限性。分析基于IAB提供的几个数据源，这些数据源将在内部使用，或通过UCL的IAB FDZ使用。设想通过CADAL项目与IAB合作。