RII Track-4:NSF: Improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of Central Pacific extreme hydrometeorological events and their impacts in Hawaii

研究基础设施改善轨道4 EPSCoR研究员项目将为夏威夷大学的一名助理教授提供奖学金，并为一名研究生提供培训。这项工作将与加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所西部极端天气和水极端研究中心的研究人员合作进行。预测极端天气事件对于安全、准备和基础设施规划至关重要，特别是在像夏威夷ʻI这样的地区，那里独特的地理环境构成了巨大的挑战。夏威夷ʻI与世隔绝的地理位置增加了及早准确预测的重要性，以便于及时做出紧急反应。该项目旨在通过了解该地区特定的气候复杂性，加强夏威夷ʻI地区此类事件预报的科学性。通过提高我们的预报能力，这项工作不仅将促进科学研究，还将为夏威夷ʻI的居民的福祉和安全做出重大贡献，特别是经常首当其冲地遭受极端天气事件影响的社会经济弱势社区。该奖学金将通过支持与西部天气和极端水中心建立长期合作关系，支持PI在亚季节至季节性(S2S)天气预报方面的培训机会。该项目的主要目标是加深对中太平洋季节内气候变异性的了解，并为2周至6个月的极端水文气象事件开发一个分季节(S2S)预报系统。在研究期间，这项合作旨在利用观测和再分析数据阐明马登-朱利安涛动对夏威夷ʻI水文气候的影响，并使用各种指标评估中太平洋S2S预报的准确性。此外，还将通过降低实时集合预报的尺度，为夏威夷ʻI建立S2S预报系统。这个系统可以被预报员和其他利益相关者用来支持应急计划。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Research Infrastructure Improvement Track-4 EPSCoR Research Fellows project will provide a fellowship to an Assistant professor and training for a graduate student at the University of Hawaii. This work will be conducted in collaboration with researchers at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego. Forecasting extreme weather events is essential for safety, preparedness, and infrastructure planning, especially in regions like Hawaiʻi, where the unique geography poses significant challenges. Hawaiʻi’s isolated location increases the importance of early and accurate forecasts to facilitate timely emergency response. This project aims to strengthen the science of forecasting such events in Hawaiʻi by understanding the region’s specific climate complexities. By improving our forecasting capabilities, this endeavor will not only advance scientific research but will also contribute significantly to the well-being and safety of Hawaiʻi’s residents, especially socioeconomically disadvantaged communities that often bear the brunt of extreme weather events.This fellowship will support training opportunities for the PI in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting by supporting the establishment of a long-term collaboration with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes. The primary objectives of this project are to deepen the understanding of intraseasonal climate variability in the Central Pacific and to develop a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system for extreme hydrometeorological events ranging from 2 weeks to 6 months. During the fellowship, this collaboration aims to clarify the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Hawaiʻi’s hydroclimate using observational and reanalysis data, and to evaluate the accuracy of S2S forecasts in the Central Pacific using a variety of metrics. In addition, an S2S forecast system for Hawaiʻi will be created by downscaling real-time ensemble forecasts. This system could be used by forecasters and other stakeholders to support emergency planning.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.