RAPID: Drivers and Improving Forecasts of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Wildfire Potential in Hawaii

夏威夷地处太平洋中心，独特的地理环境和多种小气候使得该群岛特别容易受到极端天气和野火等自然灾害的影响。准确和长期的预测对于应急准备至关重要，特别是考虑到毁灭性野火的频率越来越高，例如2023年8月毛伊岛的悲惨事件。这项研究通过推进对夏威夷野火季节内变化的理解和提高长期野火预测的准确性来解决这一迫切需要。这些进展可以对社会产生深远影响，使更有效的应急规划成为可能，从而保护人类生命和自然生态系统。首先，在夏威夷野火的季节性（S2S）的变化将使用历史数据和再分析技术相结合的研究。目标是量化夏威夷野火和火灾天气的S2S变化，并确定导致长期火灾风险的气候因素。其次，将开发一个预测平台，以预测S2S规模的野火潜力。最先进的数值模型将用于生成未来几周的详细预测。这项研究的结果不仅将为夏威夷的野火驱动机制提供新的见解，而且还将为改善应急响应规划提供基本框架，使多个利益相关者受益。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Located in the heart of the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii’s unique geography and multiple microclimates make the archipelago particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as extreme weather and wildfires. Accurate and long-term forecasts are critical for emergency preparedness, especially in light of the increasing frequency of devastating wildfires, such as the tragic event on Maui in August 2023. This research addresses this pressing need by advancing the understanding of what drives the intraseasonal variability of wildfires in Hawaii and improving the accuracy of long-term wildfire forecasts. Such advances could have a profound impact on society by enabling more effective emergency planning, thereby protecting both human lives and natural ecosystems.This research focuses on two primary objectives. First, the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) variability of wildfires in Hawaii will be examined using a combination of historical data and reanalysis techniques. The goal is to quantify the S2S variability of wildfires and fire weather in Hawaii and identify the climatic factors that contribute to longer-term fire risk. Second, a forecasting platform will be developed to predict wildfire potential at the S2S scale. State-of-the-art numerical models will be used to generate detailed forecasts that span several weeks into the future. The results of this research will not only provide new insights into the mechanisms that drive wildfires in Hawaii, but will also provide a basic framework for improved emergency response planning, benefiting multiple stakeholders.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.