CAREER: CAS- Climate -- Air-quality-related environmental justice impacts of decarbonization scenarios

职业：CAS-气候——脱碳情景与空气质量相关的环境正义影响

• 批准号: 2339462
• 负责人: Christopher Tessum
• 金额: $ 51万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-01-01 至 2028-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2339462&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; CAS; Climate; Air; quality

The U.S. and other nations are at the beginning of a major technological shift from a fossil fuel-based economy to one driven by non-climate-forcing energy generation. The speed and success of this technology shift (“decarbonization”) depend in part upon whether it is perceived to be implemented equitably with benefits that accrue broadly across society. A major way that energy generation intersects with equity is through ambient air pollution. Ambient air pollution is one of the largest causes of death in the US and globally, with health burdens that are distributed inequitably on both regional and international scales. However, minimal research has thus far been conducted into the air quality and environmental justice implications of different decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, current integrated assessment models, which are used to develop decarbonization strategies, have minimal support for air quality assessment and are not well-suited to quantify environmental inequity. This project will develop a new modeling framework for integrated assessment of climate, air quality, and environmental equity impacts of policy scenarios, and apply the framework in the analysis and evaluation of climate policy. The research targets greatly improved understanding of the co-benefits and dis-benefits of decarbonization policy scenarios, especially as related to environmental equity, both within the US and internationally. It also targets improved understanding of effective methods for educating the general public on climate science and policy. The open-source computational tools to be created aim to facilitate the calculation of air quality co-benefits and related equity by policymakers, sustainability scientists, and others. This goal is to result in a stronger technical grounding for decarbonization policy. Furthermore, as the perception of equity is critical to successful decarbonization, the identification of strategies that mitigate environmental injustice, and the development of educational tools to broadly communicate the benefits of those policies, will contribute to the fight against climate change overall. Project research will be organized in three Thrusts. Thrust 1 will couple the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). GCAM represents linkages between energy, water, land, climate and economic systems. InMAP is a high-resolution, reduced-complexity model of the transport, transformation, and removal of air pollution developed by PI Tessum and widely used to estimate air pollution health and equity impacts of policy interventions. Both GCAM and InMAP have versions that are global- and US-focused and the research will couple the corresponding versions to allow analysis at sub-national US and international scales. Thrust 2 will expand the coupled models developed in Thrust 1 to allow high-resolution integrated assessment. To do this, the research will integrate high-resolution demographic population down-scaling into the resulting model to allow the assessment of how policy scenarios will differentially affect air pollution exposure across different demographic groups. Technology implementation decisions will also be enabled at high spatial resolution within the model, enabling the exploration of intra-urban location-based policy implementation. Thrust 3 will create a machine-learned single-pass GCAM solver that allows the model to run in seconds instead of hours for a subset of possible scenarios, as well as flexible software infrastructure (GCAM-EDU) for building interactive educational experiences.This CAREER project is jointly supported by the NSF ENG/CBET Environmental Sustainability and Environmental Engineering program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

美国和其他国家正处于从以化石燃料为基础的经济向不影响气候变化的能源生产驱动的经济的重大技术转变的开端。这种技术转变（“脱碳”）的速度和成功在一定程度上取决于人们是否认为它得到了公平的实施，并在全社会广泛产生效益。能源生产与公平相交叉的一个主要途径是通过环境空气污染。环境空气污染是美国乃至全球最大的死亡原因之一，其健康负担在地区和国际范围内分布不均。然而，迄今为止，对不同脱碳策略对空气质量和环境正义的影响进行的研究很少。此外，目前用于制定脱碳战略的综合评估模型对空气质量评估的支持最小，也不适合量化环境不平等。该项目将开发一个新的建模框架，用于综合评估政策情景对气候、空气质量和环境公平的影响，并将该框架应用于气候政策的分析和评估。该研究的目标是大大提高对脱碳政策情景的共同利益和不利影响的理解，特别是与美国国内外的环境公平有关。它还旨在提高对公众进行气候科学和政策教育的有效方法的理解。即将创建的开源计算工具旨在促进决策者、可持续发展科学家和其他人对空气质量共同效益和相关公平的计算。这一目标是为脱碳政策奠定更坚实的技术基础。此外，由于对公平的认识对成功脱碳至关重要，确定减轻环境不公正的战略，以及开发教育工具以广泛传播这些政策的好处，将有助于总体上应对气候变化。项目研究将分三个阶段进行。推力1将把全球变化分析模型（GCAM）与空气污染干预模型（InMAP）结合起来。GCAM代表了能源、水、土地、气候和经济系统之间的联系。InMAP是由PI Tessum开发的一个高分辨率、低复杂性的空气污染运输、转化和消除模型，广泛用于估计政策干预对空气污染健康和公平的影响。GCAM和InMAP都有以全球和美国为中心的版本，研究将结合相应的版本，以便在美国次国家和国际范围内进行分析。推力2将扩展推力1中开发的耦合模型，以实现高分辨率综合评估。为了做到这一点，该研究将把高分辨率的人口人口缩减比例整合到最终的模型中，以评估政策情景如何对不同人口群体的空气污染暴露产生不同的影响。技术实施决策也将在模型内以高空间分辨率实现，从而能够探索基于城市内部位置的政策实施。Thrust 3将创建一个机器学习的单次GCAM求解器，允许模型在几秒钟内运行，而不是几个小时，用于构建交互式教育体验的灵活软件基础设施（GCAM- edu）。本CAREER项目由NSF ENG/CBET环境可持续性与环境工程项目联合支持。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。