EAGER: IMPRESS-U Adaptive Infrastructure Recovery from Repeated Shocks through Resilience Stress Testing in Ukraine

IMPRESS-U项目由美国国家科学基金会、爱沙尼亚研究委员会（ETAG）、立陶宛研究委员会（LMT）、波兰国家科学中心（NCN）、美国国家科学院和美国海军全球研究办公室（DoD）联合资助。该研究将在一个多边国际合作伙伴关系下进行，联合佛罗里达大学（美国）、乌克兰基辅国家科学院G.E. Pukhov能源工程建模研究所（PIMEE）、乌克兰国立技术大学“伊戈尔西科斯基基辅理工学院”（乌克兰）、格列维斯理论与应用信息学研究所（波兰）、维尔纽斯米科拉斯罗梅里斯大学（立陶宛）和塔林塔林理工大学（爱沙尼亚）。美国部分的合作将由NSF OISE/OD和CISE/CNS共同资助。这笔资金是通过EAGER提案授予的，用于支持攻击下的弹性恢复（RRUA）框架的重要发展。该项目旨在应对COVID-19大流行、供应链脆弱性和地缘政治冲突等全球中断，具有重要意义。由于持续的冲突，乌克兰的数字服务部门面临着持续的外部冲击，这一倡议既及时又至关重要。主要目标是在乌克兰科学家和西方同行之间建立联系，减轻地缘政治紧张局势造成的孤立，并培育一个致力于系统弹性的合作研究网络。该项目涉及包括美国、乌克兰、波兰、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛在内的国际合作伙伴关系，采用跨学科方法，利用网络科学、弹性分析、可解释人工智能和数字孪生技术。除了增强乌克兰的基础设施复原力之外，该项目还希望成为类似背景下全球复原力战略的蓝图。为了实现更广泛的影响，达拉斯-沃斯堡机场将作为联合开发和培训的初始RRUA测试平台。RRUA的概念和方法将在波兰、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛的能源和通信基础设施中进行测试，最终应用于乌克兰的数字基础设施。除了推进研究目标外，该项目还坚定地致力于促进科学和工程领域的包容性。它积极地让乌克兰的初级研究人员参与进来，促进他们融入全球科学界。教育机会将通过数字平台、研讨会和模拟游戏提供，与欧盟-乌克兰事件保持一致。这些举措旨在提供独特的学习体验，培养新一代的科学家，使他们具备应对复杂的弹性挑战的技能，并与美国国家科学基金会推进国家健康、繁荣和福利的使命保持一致。该NSF EAGER项目奖旨在通过开发攻击下的弹性恢复（RRUA）框架来推进弹性科学，重点关注乌克兰数字服务部门面临的独特挑战。RRUA框架引入了一种创新和全面的弹性科学方法，针对受动态威胁和冲击影响的互联基础设施系统的复杂相互依赖性。因此，该项目代表了传统弹性战略的重大飞跃，即强调预防，而不是将恢复作为弹性范式的核心组成部分。我们的目标是验证假设，即系统在威胁和系统响应阶段对不同冲击的恢复和弹性可以通过代表其系统功能的互联网络的压力测试来量化。我们的目标是为急性和持续性外部冲击下的弹性生命周期提供新的见解，特别是量化每个弹性响应阶段的关键控制因素，以便为有效的恢复干预提供信息。通过采用结合网络科学、弹性分析、可解释人工智能（xAI）和数字孪生技术的多方面方法，该项目旨在重新定义乌克兰互联基础设施的系统恢复建模和适应，并受益于我们与美国、乌克兰、波兰、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛拟议的国际伙伴关系的共享知识。该项目采用三管齐下的方法：在美国国际机场使用数据丰富的分析来完善RRUA，在波兰、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛测试平台测试概念和方法，包括人类行为的脆弱性组件，随后在动态威胁和可变数据存在的情况下将RRUA集成到乌克兰的网络和能源基础设施系统中。成功将彻底改变乌克兰的复苏前景，使其成为韧性战略的全球典范。我们的研究设计将共同探索如何在不同的环境下运作我们的RRUA框架。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This IMPRESS-U project is jointly funded by NSF, Estonian Research Council (ETAG), Research Council of Lithuania (LMT), National Science Center of Poland (NCN), US National Academy of Sciences, and Office of Naval Research Global (DoD). The research will be performed in a multilateral international partnership that unites the University of Florida (US), G.E. Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the NAS of Ukraine (PIMEE), Kiyv (Ukraine), National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute” (Ukraine), Institute of Theoretical & Applied Informatics, Gliwice (Poland), Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius (Lithuania), and Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn (Estonia). US portion of the collaborative effort will be co-funded by NSF OISE/OD and CISE/CNS. NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY This funding is awarded through an EAGER proposal, supporting the vital development of the Resilience-Recovery Under Attack (RRUA) framework. Originating in response to global disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain vulnerabilities, and geopolitical conflicts, the project holds significant importance. Focusing on Ukraine's digital services sector, which has faced persistent external shocks due to the ongoing conflict, this initiative is both timely and crucial. The primary objective is to establish connections between Ukrainian scientists and their counterparts in the West, mitigating the isolation caused by geopolitical tensions and fostering a collaborative research network dedicated to systemic resilience. Involving an international partnership comprising the USA, Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania, the project adopts an interdisciplinary approach, leveraging network science, resilience analytics, explainable AI, and digital twin technologies. Beyond enhancing Ukraine's infrastructural resilience, the project aspires to serve as a blueprint for global resilience strategies in analogous contexts.To achieve broader impact, the Dallas-Fort Worth airport will function as the initial RRUA testbed for co-development and training. The RRUA concept and methods will undergo testing in Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania's energy and communications infrastructure, culminating in their application to Ukraine's digital infrastructure. In addition to advancing research goals, this project is steadfast in its commitment to promoting inclusivity in science and engineering. It actively involves junior Ukrainian researchers, facilitating their integration into the global scientific community. Educational opportunities will be offered through digital platforms, workshops, and simulation games, aligning with EU-Ukraine events. These initiatives aim to provide a distinctive learning experience, nurturing a new generation of scientists equipped with the skills to address complex resilience challenges and aligning with the NSF's mission to advance national health, prosperity, and welfare.TECHNICAL SUMMARYThis NSF EAGER project award aims to advance resilience science by developing the Resilience-Recovery Under Attack (RRUA) framework, with a focus on the unique challenges faced by Ukraine's digital services sector. The RRUA framework introduces an innovative and comprehensive approach to resilience science, targeting the complex interdependencies of interconnected infrastructural systems subjected to dynamic threats and shocks. Hence, the project represents a significant leap from traditional resilience strategies that emphasize prevention, instead integrating recovery as a core component of the resilience paradigm. We aim to validate the hypothesis that the recovery and resilience of systems under threats and system response stages to diverse shocks can be quantified via stress-testing of interconnected networks representing their systemic functions. We aim to provide novel insights into the lifecycle of resilience under external shocks during acute and persistent shocks, and in particular quantify the key controllers of each of the resilience-response phases to inform efficient recovery interventions. By employing a multi-faceted methodology combining network science, resilience analytics, explainable AI (xAI), and digital twin technologies, the project seeks to redefine systemic recovery modeling and adaptation of interconnected infrastructure across Ukraine, benefiting from the shared knowledge of our proposed international partnership with the USA, Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania. The project utilizes a three-pronged approach: refining RRUA using data-rich analyses at a US-based international airport, testing concepts and methods in Poland, Estonia and Lithuania testbeds, including human behavior components of vulnerability, and subsequently integrating RRUA within Ukraine's cyber and energy infrastructure systems in the presence of dynamic threats and variable data. Success could revolutionize Ukraine's prospects for recovery, positioning it as a global example for resilience strategies. Our research design will collaboratively explore how to operationalize our RRUA framework across varied settings.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.