ALPACA - Advancing the Long-range Prediction, Attribution, and forecast Calibration of AMOC and its climate impacts

APACA - 推进 AMOC 及其气候影响的长期预测、归因和预报校准

• 批准号: 2406511
• 负责人: Stephen Yeager
• 金额: $ 61.51万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-01-01 至 2026-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2406511&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ALPACA; Advancing; Long; range; Prediction

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.This project aims to advance understanding of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) predictability. The overarching objective of this international collaboration is to quantify, understand, and improve our capacity to predict the AMOC and its climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. It will utilize AMOC observations (RAPID and OSNAP) as well as observation-based AMOC reconstructions to assess the skill in predicting the AMOC in state-of-the-art S2D prediction systems. It will evaluate the processes that contribute to skill and their consistency across models and use new simulations to better understand the relative roles of different processes in driving observed variability on S2D timescales. Additionally, new large- ensemble simulations will be used to quantify the role of external forcing in driving AMOC variability and change. Finally, with this new understanding, it will determine whether S2D predictions of AMOC and AMOC-related climate impacts can be improved through physically-consistent statistical calibrations that reduce the signal-to-noise issues in predictions of atmospheric circulation. The new knowledge may inform future prediction system development and will feed directly into international coordinated activities such as WCRP’s Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and its lighthouse activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC). Improved and better understood climate predictions will deliver significant benefits to society as a whole. The knowledge gained in this effort will be promulgated through the CESM Earth System Prediction Working Group that supports the US university community. The findings will likely influence diverse research communities focused on climate change and projection, climate prediction, ocean modeling, and observational oceanography. An early career scientist (postdoc) at NCAR will benefit from the opportunity to work with an international team of experts.The expected intellectual advancements from this work include: 1) clarification of the current capacity of state-of-the-art initialized prediction systems to predict AMOC and its constituent currents when verified against a suite of available observational benchmarks; 2) elucidation of the key predictability mechanisms at work in skillful systems and their time scale dependence; 3) improved understanding of whether and how skillful AMOC prediction translates into skillful prediction of Atlantic sector climate impacts; 4) more sophisticated attribution of past AMOC change; and 5) assessment of the potential to improve S2D AMOC and associated impacts predictions using new forecast calibration techniques.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局(NSF/GEO)和英国国家环境研究委员会(NERC)通过NSF/GEO-NERC牵头机构协议共同资助的项目。该协定允许美国和英国提交一个单一的联合提案，并由该机构进行同行审查，该机构的调查员在预算中所占比例最大。在成功联合确定奖项建议后，每个机构将资助各自国家机构支持科学家的预算比例。该项目旨在促进对AMOC(大西洋子午线颠覆环流)可预测性的理解。这一国际合作的首要目标是量化、理解和提高我们在季节到十年(S2D)时间尺度上预测AMOC及其气候影响的能力。它将利用AMOC观测(快速和OSNAP)以及基于观测的AMOC重建来评估在最先进的S2D预测系统中预测AMOC的技能。它将评估有助于提高技能的过程及其跨模型的一致性，并使用新的模拟来更好地理解不同过程在推动S2D时间尺度上观察到的可变性方面的相对作用。此外，将使用新的大型集合模拟来量化外部强迫在驱动AMOC可变性和变化中的作用。最后，有了这一新的理解，它将确定是否可以通过物理上一致的统计校准来改进对AMOC和AMOC相关气候影响的S2D预测，从而减少大气环流预测中的信噪比问题。新知识可能会为未来预测系统的发展提供信息，并将直接提供给国际协调活动，如世界气候研究计划的十年气候预测项目(DCPP)及其解释和预测地球系统变化的灯塔活动(EPESC)。改进和更好地理解气候预测将为整个社会带来重大好处。在这项工作中获得的知识将通过CESM地球系统预测工作组公布，该工作组支持美国大学社区。这些发现可能会影响专注于气候变化和预测、气候预测、海洋建模和观测海洋学的不同研究团体。NCAR的一位早期职业科学家(博士后)将受益于与国际专家团队合作的机会。这项工作预期的智力进步包括：1)澄清最先进的初始化预报系统目前预测AMOC及其组成部分潮流的能力，当与一套可用的观测基准进行验证时；2)阐明在熟练系统中发挥作用的关键可预报机制及其时间尺度相关性；3)更好地理解熟练的AMOC预测是否以及如何将熟练的AMOC预测转化为对大西洋地区气候影响的熟练预测；4)对过去AMOC变化的更复杂的归因；以及5)使用新的预测校准技术改进S2D AMOC和相关影响预测的潜力评估。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。