Historical Simulations of Greenland Ice-sheet Dynamics: The Imprint of Early Ice Loss on Recent and Future Change

格陵兰冰盖动力学的历史模拟：早期冰损对近期和未来变化的影响

• 批准号: 2422350
• 负责人: John Erich Christian
• 金额: $ 36.18万
• 依托单位: University of Oregon Eugene
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-12-15 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2422350&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Historical; Simulations; Greenland; Ice; sheet

Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes to sea level rise and is projected to continue over the next century. Projections of future ice loss rely on models that simulate the dynamic response of the ice sheet to climate changes. A key challenge is calibrating models based on observations made in the last few decades, in part because ice dynamics adjust to climate changes over long timescales. Past climate therefore affects the modern state. This project will use a numerical ice-sheet model and long-term climate data to simulate Greenland ice-sheet changes since 1850, with a specific focus on the ice-sheet’s dynamic “memory” of climate over the past century. Ice loss concurrent with rapid warming is well documented in recent decades, but a period of rapid Arctic warming also occurred in the 1920s-1930s. Historical observations, where available, suggest that this triggered the retreat of many glaciers on the Greenland Ice Sheet, but their ongoing adjustment has not been thoroughly investigated. With simulations that fully encompass this period of early climate forcing, this project will provide further context for recent observations, and will provide insights that will aid in calibrating models for future projections. This project will also train two undergraduate students.The model simulations will encompass both the Greenland Ice Sheet as a whole, as well as case studies on several of its major outlet glaciers. Simulations will be forced with climate reanalysis products that extend over the industrial era, enabling a realistic treatment of short-term variability, including the rapid warming of the 1920s-1930s. The primary intended deliverable will be historical simulations that capture the major phases of mass loss suggested by long-term observations. Model output will be made publicly available to aid broader efforts to initialize simulations of future mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. An additional deliverable will be a set of perturbed simulations designed to clarify leading physical controls on the glacier and ice-sheet evolution over this era. This will include assessing the relative impacts of climate variability and topographic boundary conditions, and the dynamic response that was committed by early-twentieth-century climate forcing. Together, the proposed model simulations will test theory and quantify the effects of early forcing, drawing new links between sparse glacier and climate observations from the pre-satellite era.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

格陵兰冰盖的冰损失导致海平面上升，预计在下一个世纪将继续下去。对未来冰损失的预测依赖于模拟冰盖对气候变化的动态反应的模型。一个关键的挑战是根据过去几十年的观测结果校准模型，部分原因是冰的动态会在很长一段时间内适应气候变化。因此，过去的气候影响着现代国家。该项目将使用数值冰盖模型和长期气候数据来模拟1850年以来格陵兰冰盖的变化，特别侧重于冰盖对过去世纪气候的动态“记忆”。近几十年来，伴随着快速变暖的冰损失得到了很好的记录，但在20世纪20年代至30年代也发生了北极快速变暖的时期。现有的历史观测表明，这引发了格陵兰冰盖上许多冰川的退缩，但它们正在进行的调整尚未得到彻底调查。通过完全涵盖这一早期气候强迫时期的模拟，该项目将为最近的观测提供进一步的背景，并将提供有助于校准模型以进行未来预测的见解。该项目还将培训两名本科生，模型模拟将包括整个格陵兰冰盖以及对其几个主要出口冰川的个案研究。模拟将被迫与气候再分析产品，延伸到工业时代，使短期变率，包括20世纪20年代至30年代的快速变暖的现实治疗。主要的预期交付成果将是历史模拟，捕捉长期观察所建议的质量损失的主要阶段。模型输出将公开提供，以帮助更广泛的努力，以初始化格陵兰冰盖未来质量损失的模拟。另一个可交付成果将是一组扰动模拟，旨在阐明这一时期对冰川和冰盖演变的主要物理控制。这将包括评估气候变率和地形边界条件的相对影响，以及世纪初气候强迫所造成的动态响应。总之，拟议的模型模拟将测试理论和量化早期强迫的影响，从前卫星时代的稀疏冰川和气候观测之间的新的联系。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。