Projecting temperature-related mortality in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios - considering the role of cold effects and precipitation in future projections

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Temperature and climate affect human health in many ways. Among the most prominent health effects are so called heat effects which describe the increase in all-cause and cause-specific morbidity and mortality above a threshold temperature, located approximately between the 90th and 95th percentile. This threshold temperature as well as the increase in heat-related morbidity and mortality varies over different areas and with different sub-groups. Modifications arise from other atmospheric parameters such as humidity, wind speed, shortwave radiation, air pollution as well as non-atmospheric parameters such as spatial, demographic or socio-economic characteristics. The projected consequences of climate change suggest an increase in heat-related mortality while it is unclear whether cold-related mortality will decrease. Moreover, dynamics such as demographic, epidemiological and socio-economic change or urbanization are likely to affect and modify heat mortality in the future. In the ongoing research project, I am working on projections of heat-excess mortality considering ageing, increase in socio-economic status and urbanization. Moreover, I have conducted an in-depth analysis of cold effects and the impact of precipitation. My findings demonstrate that cold effects occur on a very short-term time scale (contrary to findings from mid-latitude countries where cold effects occur on a mid-term scale). Moreover, analyses show that precipitation significantly mitigates heat effects during the summer and monsoon season. During the proposed 6-month extension of the research fellowship, I intent to project future cold-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Moreover, I anticipate to include the mitigating effect of precipitation into projections of heat-related mortality. The project aims at making a contribution to sophisticated and reliable projections of future temperature-related mortality. Such projections can provide health specialists and decision makers with a variety of future trends, contexts, risks and opportunities that can help in planning adaptation strategies.