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Projecting temperature-related mortality in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios - considering the role of cold effects and precipitation in future projections

预测气候变化情景下孟加拉国与温度相关的死亡率 - 考虑寒冷影响和降水在未来预测中的作用

基本信息

批准号：
264854507
负责人：
Dr. Katrin Burkart
金额：
--
依托单位：
School of Public Health
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Fellowships
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2013-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/264854507?language=en
关键词：
Projecting temperature related mortality Bangladesh

项目摘要

Temperature and climate affect human health in many ways. Among the most prominent health effects are so called heat effects which describe the increase in all-cause and cause-specific morbidity and mortality above a threshold temperature, located approximately between the 90th and 95th percentile. This threshold temperature as well as the increase in heat-related morbidity and mortality varies over different areas and with different sub-groups. Modifications arise from other atmospheric parameters such as humidity, wind speed, shortwave radiation, air pollution as well as non-atmospheric parameters such as spatial, demographic or socio-economic characteristics. The projected consequences of climate change suggest an increase in heat-related mortality while it is unclear whether cold-related mortality will decrease. Moreover, dynamics such as demographic, epidemiological and socio-economic change or urbanization are likely to affect and modify heat mortality in the future. In the ongoing research project, I am working on projections of heat-excess mortality considering ageing, increase in socio-economic status and urbanization. Moreover, I have conducted an in-depth analysis of cold effects and the impact of precipitation. My findings demonstrate that cold effects occur on a very short-term time scale (contrary to findings from mid-latitude countries where cold effects occur on a mid-term scale). Moreover, analyses show that precipitation significantly mitigates heat effects during the summer and monsoon season. During the proposed 6-month extension of the research fellowship, I intent to project future cold-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Moreover, I anticipate to include the mitigating effect of precipitation into projections of heat-related mortality. The project aims at making a contribution to sophisticated and reliable projections of future temperature-related mortality. Such projections can provide health specialists and decision makers with a variety of future trends, contexts, risks and opportunities that can help in planning adaptation strategies.

温度和气候在许多方面影响人类健康。最突出的健康影响之一是所谓的热效应，它描述了所有原因和特定原因的发病率和死亡率在阈值温度以上的增加，大约位于第90和第95百分位数之间。这一阈值温度以及与热有关的发病率和死亡率的增加在不同地区和不同亚群中有所不同。其他大气参数（如湿度、风速、短波辐射、空气污染）以及非大气参数（如空间、人口或社会经济特征）也会引起变化。气候变化的预测结果表明，与热有关的死亡率会增加，而与冷有关的死亡率是否会下降尚不清楚。此外，诸如人口、流行病学和社会经济变化或城市化等动态可能会影响和改变未来的热死亡率。在正在进行的研究项目中，我正在研究考虑老龄化、社会经济地位提高和城市化的热过剩死亡率预测。此外，我还对冷效应和降水的影响进行了深入的分析。我的研究结果表明，寒冷的影响发生在非常短的时间尺度上（与中纬度国家的研究结果相反，那里的寒冷影响发生在中期尺度上）。此外，分析表明，在夏季和季风季节，降水显著减轻了热效应。在提议的6个月研究金延期期间，我打算预测气候变化情景下未来与寒冷有关的死亡率。此外，我预计将降水的缓解作用纳入热相关死亡率的预测中。该项目旨在对未来与温度有关的死亡率作出复杂和可靠的预测。这种预测可以为卫生专家和决策者提供各种未来趋势、情况、风险和机会，有助于规划适应战略。