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Modeling structural change in agriculture under competition between heterogenous firms, uncertainty and different market interventions

对异质企业竞争、不确定性和不同市场干预下的农业结构变化进行建模

基本信息

批准号：
265161039
负责人：
Professor Dr. Jan-Henning Feil
金额：
--
依托单位：
Fachbereich Agrarwirtschaft
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2013-12-31 至 2017-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/265161039?language=en
关键词：
Modeling structural change agriculture under

项目摘要

In consequence of strong changes in general economic conditions, adjustments in the agricultural sector can be expected. To date, however, important aspects with regard to the analysis of structural change in agriculture in general, and investment and disinvestment decisions in specific are not considered in the literature. There is, for example, no model which is capable of analyzing investment and disinvestment decisions of heterogeneous firms under consideration of real options effects, that is, under simultaneous consideration of uncertainty of the cash flows, irreversibility and temporal flexibility, in a competitive environment. Thus, there exists a risk that the adjustment behavior of farm firms is forecasted in an inaccurate way within policy impact analyzes. Furthermore, bounded rationality of agricultural decision makers, which can often be observed in reality, is mostly disregarded by existing policy impact analyzes. Therefore, the objective of this project is to develop an agent-based real options model, which integrates the previously mentioned aspects and allows for more accurate forecasts of the adjustment behavior of farmers and its implications for structural change. With regard to the objective, the following concrete research questions shall be answered:1. How can investment and disinvestment decisions of heterogeneous firms and their interactions in competitive markets be simultaneously modeled within the real options context? 2. How can different market interventions, which are relevant for the agricultural sector, e.g. tradable production quotas or greenhouse gas emission rights, be integrated in real options models, which explicitly consider heterogeneous decision makers? Which implications arise from the implementation, increased use, reduction or abolishment of these interventions for structural change in agriculture? 3. How can bounded rationality of agricultural entrepreneurs, which has been proven in previous studies, be quantified and processed in models, which analyze the firm level adjustment behavior to changes in the economic environment?

由于总体经济状况发生强烈变化，预计农业部门将进行调整。然而，迄今为止，文献中没有考虑到一般农业结构变化分析的重要方面，也没有考虑到具体的投资和撤资决定。例如，在竞争环境中，考虑到真实的期权效应，即同时考虑现金流的不确定性、不可逆性和时间灵活性，没有一个模型能够分析异质企业的投资和撤资决策。因此，在政策影响分析中，存在对农业企业调整行为预测不准确的风险。此外，农业决策者的有限理性在现实生活中经常被观察到，但现有的政策影响分析大多忽视了这一点。因此，本项目的目标是开发一个基于代理人的真实的选择模型，该模型综合了前面提到的各个方面，能够更准确地预测农民的调整行为及其对结构变化的影响。在研究目的上，应回答以下具体的研究问题：1.如何在真实的期权背景下同时模拟异质企业的投资和撤资决策及其在竞争市场中的相互作用？2.与农业部门相关的不同市场干预措施，例如可交易的生产配额或温室气体排放权，如何能够纳入明确考虑到不同决策者的真实的选择模型？实施、增加使用、减少或废除这些干预措施对农业结构改革产生哪些影响？3.农业企业家的有限理性在以往的研究中已经得到证明，如何在模型中量化和处理，分析企业层面对经济环境变化的调整行为？