Modeling structural change in agriculture under competition between heterogenous firms, uncertainty and different market interventions

由于一般经济条件的强烈变化，农业部门的调整是可以预期的。然而，到目前为止，关于农业结构变化分析的重要方面，以及具体的投资和撤资决策，并没有在文献中得到考虑。例如，没有一个模型能够分析异质性企业在考虑实物期权效应的情况下的投资和撤资决策，即同时考虑现金流量的不确定性、不可逆性和时间灵活性，在竞争环境中。因此，在政策影响分析中，存在着对农业企业调整行为预测不准确的风险。此外，农业决策者的有限理性在现实中经常可以观察到，但在现有的政策影响分析中往往被忽视。因此，本项目的目标是开发一个基于代理的实物期权模型，该模型整合了前面提到的方面，并允许更准确地预测农民的调整行为及其对结构变化的影响。就研究目标而言，需要回答以下几个具体的研究问题：1。异质企业的投资和撤资决策及其在竞争市场中的相互作用如何在实物期权环境中同时建模？2. 如何将与农业部门相关的不同市场干预，例如可交易的生产配额或温室气体排放权，整合到明确考虑异质决策者的实物期权模型中？实施、增加使用、减少或废除这些干预措施会对农业结构变化产生哪些影响？3. 在分析企业对经济环境变化的水平调整行为的模型中，如何对已有研究证明的农业企业家有限理性进行量化和处理？

In consequence of strong changes in general economic conditions, adjustments in the agricultural sector can be expected. To date, however, important aspects with regard to the analysis of structural change in agriculture in general, and investment and disinvestment decisions in specific are not considered in the literature. There is, for example, no model which is capable of analyzing investment and disinvestment decisions of heterogeneous firms under consideration of real options effects, that is, under simultaneous consideration of uncertainty of the cash flows, irreversibility and temporal flexibility, in a competitive environment. Thus, there exists a risk that the adjustment behavior of farm firms is forecasted in an inaccurate way within policy impact analyzes. Furthermore, bounded rationality of agricultural decision makers, which can often be observed in reality, is mostly disregarded by existing policy impact analyzes. Therefore, the objective of this project is to develop an agent-based real options model, which integrates the previously mentioned aspects and allows for more accurate forecasts of the adjustment behavior of farmers and its implications for structural change. With regard to the objective, the following concrete research questions shall be answered:1. How can investment and disinvestment decisions of heterogeneous firms and their interactions in competitive markets be simultaneously modeled within the real options context? 2. How can different market interventions, which are relevant for the agricultural sector, e.g. tradable production quotas or greenhouse gas emission rights, be integrated in real options models, which explicitly consider heterogeneous decision makers? Which implications arise from the implementation, increased use, reduction or abolishment of these interventions for structural change in agriculture? 3. How can bounded rationality of agricultural entrepreneurs, which has been proven in previous studies, be quantified and processed in models, which analyze the firm level adjustment behavior to changes in the economic environment?