Drought Forecast and Water Management System for the semi-arid region of the state of Ceara, Brazil

巴西塞阿拉州半干旱地区干旱预报和水资源管理系统

• 批准号: 266418622
• 负责人: Professor Dr.-Ing. Axel Bronstert
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants (Transfer Project)
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/266418622?language=en
• 关键词: Drought; Forecast; Water; Management; System

This proposal for a Knowledge Transfer Project aims at making the knowledge and scientific results generated in two earlier DFG-funded research projects available for applications in water management and planning. The particular application focus of this project will be to transfer the methods and results from those research projects for future use in a Drought Forecasting and Management System. The two projects referred were: Sediment Export from large Semi-Arid catchments: Measurements and Modelling, and Generation, transport and retention of water and suspended sediments in large dryland catchments: Monitoring and integrated modelling of fluxes and connectivity phenomena. The application partner in this project is the Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources of Ceara State in NE-BRAZIL (FUNCEME), who is also in charge for hydro-meteorological predictions of Ceara's hydro-system characterized by a strongly negative climatic water balance and several thousand (mostly small) reservoirs. We intend to combine the existing information system for water management and allocation SIGA from FUNCEME with the process based hydrological model WASA-SED. The WASA-SED model, which resulted from the mentioned DFG projects, was developed specifically for semi-arid meso-scale catchments as a tool for investigating hydrological fluxes, including transport and connectivity phenomena in the river system and reservoirs. The application challenge will be addressed on several levels: (1) Integrating the WASA-SED model with the SIGA-system in order to enable water authorities a direct and efficient insight in reservoir levels, river flow, and other regional water resources; (2) Efficiently communicate the results of hydrological stocks and fluxes for a wide range of stakeholder groups and enable further use of those; (3) Using WASA-SED in a forecast mode, i.e. combine it with both short-term and seasonal meteorological forecasts to predict water availability with different lead times and to describe the associated uncertainty; (4) Taking advantage of the process-oriented type of WASA-SED to assess effects of dynamic environmental conditions on water availability, in particular the effects of the dense network of reservoirs of highly varying sizes. Feedbacks to new scientific questions are expected from the application-oriented integration of water infrastructure and management in the process chain of the model: (1) Assessing and modelling the seasonal dynamics of transmission losses in semi-arid river systems and deriving an adequate approach for river routing under such boundary conditions. (2) The quantification and modeling of hydrological and sedimentological connectivity in a complex, man-made hydro system, comprising, e.g. many small and large reservoirs, water transpositions structures, and partially connected sub-basins.

本知识转移项目提案旨在将DFG资助的两个早期研究项目中产生的知识和科学成果应用于水资源管理和规划。该项目的具体应用重点将是转让这些研究项目的方法和成果，供今后用于干旱预测和管理系统。提到的两个项目是：大型半干旱集水区的沉积物输出：测量和建模，以及大型旱地集水区水和悬浮沉积物的生成、迁移和保持：通量和连通现象的监测和综合建模。该项目的应用伙伴是巴西东北部塞阿拉州气象和水资源基金会（FUNCEME），该基金会还负责塞阿拉水文系统的水文气象预测，该水文系统的特点是气候水平衡极差，有几千个水库（大多数是小型水库）。我们打算结合联合收割机现有的信息系统的水管理和分配SIGA从FUNCEME与过程为基础的水文模型WASA-SED。由上述DFG项目产生的WASA-SED模型是专门为半干旱中尺度集水区开发的，作为调查水文通量的工具，包括河流系统和水库中的运输和连通现象。将在几个层面上应对应用方面的挑战：（1）将WASA-SED模型与SIGA系统相结合，使水务部门能够直接有效地了解水库水位、河流流量和其他区域水资源;（2）向广泛的利益攸关方群体有效地传达水文储量和流量的结果，并使这些结果得到进一步利用;（3）在预报模式中使用WASA-SED，即将其与短期和季节性气象预报相结合，预测不同提前期的水供应情况，并说明相关的不确定性;（4）利用面向过程的WASA-SED评估动态环境条件对水资源可得性的影响，特别是具有高度变化的尺寸的储层的密集网络的影响。新的科学问题的反馈，预计从应用为导向的集成水基础设施和管理的过程链中的模型：（1）评估和模拟的季节性动态的传输损失在半干旱河流系统，并得出一个适当的方法，在这种边界条件下的河流路由。(2)在一个复杂的人造水文系统中，水文和沉积连通性的量化和建模，包括许多小型和大型水库，水置换结构和部分连接的子流域。

项目成果

Mapping regional surface water volume variation in reservoirs in northeastern Brazil during 2009-2017 using high-resolution satellite images.

利用高分辨率卫星图像绘制 2009-2017 年巴西东北部水库区域地表水量变化图

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147711
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: The Science of the total environment
• 作者: S. Foerster;PAH Medeiros;JC. de Araújo;Z. Duan;A. Bronstert;B. Waske
• 通讯作者: B. Waske

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

巴西东北部半干旱地区的季节性干旱预测：基于过程的水文模型的附加值是什么？

• DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
• 发表时间: 1971
• 期刊: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Tobias;José Miguel Delgado;Sebastian Voss;Klaus Vormoor;Till Francke;Alexandre Cunha Costa;Eduardo Martins;Axel Bronstert
• 通讯作者: Axel Bronstert

Assessment of the geometry and volumes of small surface water reservoirs by remote sensing in a semi-arid region with high reservoir density

高水库密度半干旱地区小型地表水库几何形状和水量遥感评价

• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1566727
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Hydrological Sciences Journal
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Pereira;Pedro Medeiros;Till Francke;Geraldo Ramalho;Saskia Foerster;José Carlos De Araújo
• 通讯作者: José Carlos De Araújo

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products

• DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018
• 发表时间: 2018-09-28
• 期刊: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Delgado, Jose Miguel;Voss, Sebastian;Francke, Till
• 通讯作者: Francke, Till

The Climate Data Toolbox for MATLAB

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gc008392
• 发表时间: 2019-07-01
• 期刊: GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Greene, Chad A.;Thirumalai, Kaustubh;Blankenship, Donald D.
• 通讯作者: Blankenship, Donald D.