Influence of Short-Term Dynamics of Renewable Energy Sources on Power Grid Stability

改变的能源政策需要新的电网结构。可再生能源份额的增加引起了更高的馈入电力波动。传统发电厂同步发电机的减少将削弱对电力供应的稳定性至关重要的第二储备。可再生能源的随机动力学到目前为止还没有很好的特点。有必要实现一个更好的fundamentalunderstanding这种动态及其后果的稳定性未来的电网。本项目研究了风和太阳辐照度的短时功率波动对电网稳定性的影响。初步结果表明，这些短期波动是非高斯的厚尾分布，导致极端事件的概率更高。通过对各种数据集的广泛的分析，可再生能源的随机动力学的非参数建模应考虑到间歇性行为和相关性。这种建模随后被用来调查电网的稳定性的基础上借用的方法从该领域的统计物理学的复杂系统。

The changed energy policy requires new structures of electrical powergrids. Increasing shares of renewable energy sources cause higherfluctuations for the fed-in electricity. Reducing synchronousgenerators of traditional power plants will weaken the second reservesthat are essential for the stability of the power supply. Thestochastic dynamics of renewable power sources are up to now not wellcharacterized. There is need to achieve a better fundamentalunderstanding of this dynamics and its consequences for the stabilityof future power grids. In this project the impact of short-time powerfluctuations of wind and solar irradiance on grid stability isstudied. Preliminary results show that these short-time fluctuationsexhibit non-Gaussian, fat-tailed distributions, which lead to a muchhigher probability of extreme events. By an extensive statisticalanalysis of various data sets, a non-parametric modeling of thestochastic dynamics of renewable energy sources shall be developedthat takes into account intermittent behavior and correlations. Thismodeling is subsequently used to investigate power grid stabilitiesbased on methods borrowed from the field of the statistical physics ofcomplex systems.