How the short-term influence of drinking consequences shapes the development of expectancies: An event-level study

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PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT People experience more positive than negative consequences from drinking,1 but negative consequences often have the potential to have a larger impact on a person (e.g., romantic or friendship problems, poor academic performance, and unsafe driving).2,3 According to alcohol expectancy theory4 and social learning theory,5 the experience of consequences after drinking leads to the development or updating of expectancies (e.g., beliefs about what consequence will occur as a result of drinking).4 However, understanding an individual’s expectancy evaluations such as likelihoods and valences likely depend, at least in part, on how individuals perceive recently experienced consequences. Previous research has not consistently evaluated people’s evaluations of consequences,6–9 and if they do they only evaluate the consequence once either cross- sectionally or retrospectively the next day. This prevents us from gaining an understanding of how people view these consequences and how their views change with time. In addition to the changing consequence evaluations, research has typically aggregated across positive and negative expectancies6,8,10–13 which has prevented us from developing an understanding of how expectancy evaluations are altered following the experience of specific consequences and how these may change leading up to a drinking event. To address these gaps, the proposed F31 will use a complex ecological momentary assessment (EMA) design to assess consequence and expectancy evaluations over the short term to examine changes in people’s perceptions based on their experiences. Specific Aims include (1) test whether Fading Affect Bias (FAB) can be observed as changes in people’s evaluations of positive and negative drinking consequences following weekend drinking episodes over the course of a week and (2) test whether likelihoods change over the short term, to what extent these changes depend on prior experience of these consequences, whether FAB can be observed as changes in people’s valences of negative expectancies, and whether increases can be observed as changes in people’s valences of positive expectancies leading up to a drinking episode, and (3) test how the changes in consequence evaluations are associated with changes in likelihoods and valences over the short term. To complement these aims, the applicant will receive training in (1) alcohol expectancy theory and young adult alcohol consequences and expectancies, (2) design and implementation of longitudinal ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies, (3) quantitative analysis, and (4) research dissemination via manuscript preparation and conference presentations. Study findings will have important implications for future alcohol expectancies prevention research. Specifically, results can be used to inform individuals on a daily-level of when they may be susceptible to experiencing a greater number of negative consequences from drinking on a given occasion and prompt greater reflection of upcoming plans.