How the short-term influence of drinking consequences shapes the development of expectancies: An event-level study

项目总结/摘要 人们从饮酒中体验到的积极后果多于消极后果，1但消极后果 通常具有对人产生较大影响的潜力（例如，浪漫或友谊问题，贫穷 学习成绩和不安全驾驶）。2，3根据酒精预期理论4和社会学习 理论，5饮酒后的后果的经验导致发展或更新的预期 (e.g.,关于饮酒会产生什么后果的信念）。4然而， 个人的期望评估，如可能性和效价可能取决于，至少部分取决于， 个人感知最近经历的后果。以前的研究并没有一致地评估 人们对结果的评价，6-9，如果他们这样做，他们只会在交叉时评价结果， 或者第二天回顾性地。这使我们无法理解人们如何看待 这些后果以及他们的观点如何随着时间而变化。除了不断变化的后果 评价，研究通常聚集在积极和消极的期望6，8，10-13， 阻碍了我们理解预期评估是如何随着时间的推移而改变的。 具体后果的经验，以及这些如何可能导致饮酒事件的变化。解决 针对这些差距，拟议中的F31将采用复杂的生态瞬时评估（EMA）设计来评估 短期内的后果和预期评价，以审查人们的看法的变化 根据他们的经验。具体目的包括（1）测试是否可以观察到衰落效应偏差（FAB） 随着人们对周末饮酒后积极和消极饮酒后果的评价的变化， （2）测试可能性是否在短期内发生变化，在多大程度上 这些变化取决于这些后果的先前经验，FAB是否可以被观察为变化 在人们的负面预期的效价，以及是否可以观察到增加作为人们的变化， 积极预期的效价导致饮酒事件，以及（3）测试 后果评估与短期内可能性和效价的变化有关。到 补充这些目标，申请人将接受培训（1）酒精预期理论和年轻人 酒精的后果和预期，（2）设计和实施纵向生态瞬时 评估（EMA）研究，（3）定量分析，（4）通过手稿进行研究传播 准备和会议介绍。研究结果将对未来的酒精产生重要影响 预期预防研究。具体而言，结果可用于在日常水平上告知个人 当他们可能容易经历更多的负面影响，从饮酒的一个 在适当的时机，并促使更多的反映即将到来的计划。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT People experience more positive than negative consequences from drinking,1 but negative consequences often have the potential to have a larger impact on a person (e.g., romantic or friendship problems, poor academic performance, and unsafe driving).2,3 According to alcohol expectancy theory4 and social learning theory,5 the experience of consequences after drinking leads to the development or updating of expectancies (e.g., beliefs about what consequence will occur as a result of drinking).4 However, understanding an individual’s expectancy evaluations such as likelihoods and valences likely depend, at least in part, on how individuals perceive recently experienced consequences. Previous research has not consistently evaluated people’s evaluations of consequences,6–9 and if they do they only evaluate the consequence once either cross- sectionally or retrospectively the next day. This prevents us from gaining an understanding of how people view these consequences and how their views change with time. In addition to the changing consequence evaluations, research has typically aggregated across positive and negative expectancies6,8,10–13 which has prevented us from developing an understanding of how expectancy evaluations are altered following the experience of specific consequences and how these may change leading up to a drinking event. To address these gaps, the proposed F31 will use a complex ecological momentary assessment (EMA) design to assess consequence and expectancy evaluations over the short term to examine changes in people’s perceptions based on their experiences. Specific Aims include (1) test whether Fading Affect Bias (FAB) can be observed as changes in people’s evaluations of positive and negative drinking consequences following weekend drinking episodes over the course of a week and (2) test whether likelihoods change over the short term, to what extent these changes depend on prior experience of these consequences, whether FAB can be observed as changes in people’s valences of negative expectancies, and whether increases can be observed as changes in people’s valences of positive expectancies leading up to a drinking episode, and (3) test how the changes in consequence evaluations are associated with changes in likelihoods and valences over the short term. To complement these aims, the applicant will receive training in (1) alcohol expectancy theory and young adult alcohol consequences and expectancies, (2) design and implementation of longitudinal ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies, (3) quantitative analysis, and (4) research dissemination via manuscript preparation and conference presentations. Study findings will have important implications for future alcohol expectancies prevention research. Specifically, results can be used to inform individuals on a daily-level of when they may be susceptible to experiencing a greater number of negative consequences from drinking on a given occasion and prompt greater reflection of upcoming plans.