Numerical design methods with polymorphic uncertainty modelling

通过提出的研究项目，在结构的数值设计中引入了范式转换。当前的状态是以决定论思维和实践为特征的。用确定性模型表示现实意味着精确度和精确度。现实情况是，所有可获得的数据都具有不确定性、不完备性和不准确性(多态不确定性)的特点，必须适当地考虑和忽视这些不确定性。在研究项目中，提出了创新的结构设计方法和实践，将设计数据的不确定性考虑到设计的各个阶段，并通过数值模型对其进行处理，以获得新的设计质量。需要开发面向工程的工具，用于在静态和/或动态载荷下进行结构的数值设计，并相应地考虑多态数据的不确定性。如果始终如一地正确地考虑数据的不确定性，这一数字努力将呈指数级增加。除了使用适当的不确定性模型外，还需要捕捉空间和时间相关性。在(相对较少的)现实的、确定性的、非线性的数值模拟的基础上，必须开发用于相关结果变量的近似和灵敏度分析的元模型。多态不确定性模型在结构数值设计中的应用潜力很大，并不局限于土木工程。

With the proposed research project, a paradigm shift is introduced in the numerical design of structures. The current state is characterized by deterministic thinking and practice. The representation of reality with deterministic models suggests accuracy and precision. Reality is the fact that all available data are characterized by uncertainty, incompleteness and inaccuracy (polymorphic uncertainty) which have to be taken into account appropriately and cannot be neglected.In the research project, innovative approaches and practices for structural design are developed that take the uncertainty of the data in all phases of design into account and to process it by numerical models to gain a new design quality. Engineering-oriented tools for the numerical design of structures under static and/or dynamic loads with consequent consideration of polymorphic data uncertainty need to be developed.The applied numerical simulations come along with high costs. This numerical effort increases exponentially, if the uncertainty of data is taken into account consistently and correctly. In addition to the use of appropriate uncertainty models, capturing the spatial and time dependency is required. On the basis of (relatively few) realistic, deterministic, nonlinear, numerical simulations, metamodels for the approximation of relevant result variables and sensitivity analysis have to be developed. The application potential for a numerical design of structures with polymorphic uncertainty modeling is very large and not limited to the Civil Engineering.