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Hydrological change in mountain basins: understanding observed changes and robust modeling

山区盆地的水文变化：了解观测到的变化和稳健的建模

基本信息

批准号：
280067515
负责人：
Dr. Doris Düthmann
金额：
--
依托单位：
Institut für Wasserbau und Ingenieurhydrologie
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Fellowships
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2014-12-31 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/280067515?language=en
关键词：
Hydrological change mountain basins understanding

项目摘要

Estimating hydrologic consequences of climate change typically involves calibrating hydrologic models for the present climate and running them with inputs from climate models. However, it is under debate whether the current generation of hydrologic models is suitable for simulating change. Several studies showed that hydrologic model parameters may not remain constant under changed climatic conditions. The objective of this project is to advance our understanding of the behavior of hydrologic systems in mountain regions under climate variations. Valuable insights on this topic may be gained from investigating past observed changes. Austria will be selected as a test bed region due to the strong climate signal over the last decades and the excellent database. The first aim of the proposed project is reducing parameter instabilities of a hydrological model under climate variations by analyzing and modifying the model structure. In this context, it will also be evaluated whether multiobjective calibration with snow cover data can reduce the parameter instabilities. The second aim of the project is advancing our understanding of the influence of variations in the climate variables on the hydrological cycle of mountain catchments. In particular, it will be analyzed to what extent observed streamflow changes can be attributed to changes in climate variables. This will be investigated using two complementary approaches. On the one hand, a model-based approach using the improved hydrological model and simulations with detrended climate input time series will be applied. On the other hand, a data-based approach using multilinear regression will be employed. All analyses will be performed in a regional context to enable studying the spatial variability of the sensitivity to changes in the climate variables and its controls. Pooling the catchments into clusters with similar changes may enhance the signal-to noise ratio of the statistical analyses. Due to the focus on a large number of catchments, the results are expected to go beyond a case study and to allow generalizable conclusions.

估计气候变化的水文后果通常涉及校准当前气候的水文模型，并使用气候模型的输入运行它们。然而，目前这一代水文模型是否适合模拟变化仍存在争议。一些研究表明，水文模型参数在气候条件变化的情况下可能不会保持不变。这个项目的目的是提高我们对气候变化下山区水文系统行为的认识。通过调查过去观察到的变化，可以获得关于这一主题的有价值的见解。奥地利将被选为试验台地区，因为它在过去几十年里有很强的气候信号和出色的数据库。该项目的第一个目标是通过分析和修改模型结构来减少气候变化下水文模型参数的不稳定性。在这种情况下，它也将被评估是否多目标校准积雪数据可以减少参数的不稳定性。该项目的第二个目的是增进我们对气候变量变化对山区集水区水文循环的影响的了解。特别是，它将分析在何种程度上观测到的径流变化可以归因于气候变量的变化。这将使用两种互补的方法进行研究。一方面，将采用一种基于模型的方法，使用改进的水文模型和采用去趋势气候输入时间序列的模拟。另一方面，将采用使用多元线性回归的基于数据的方法。所有分析都将在区域范围内进行，以便能够研究对气候变量及其控制变化的敏感性的空间变异性。将具有相似变化的集水区汇集成集群可以提高统计分析的信噪比。由于重点放在大量的集水区，结果预计将超越个案研究，并允许概括的结论。