Statistical postprocessing and stochastic physics for ensemble predictions (C07)

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Ensemble forecasts seek to quantify uncertainty in numerical predictions of future weather. We will develop regime-dependent statistical postprocessing methods, and in addition assess the effects of stochastic physics parametrizations that interact with the evolving state of the forecast model. The result will be an unprecedented comparative quantification of the value and relative merits of the two approaches in ensemble forecasts of precipitation over Germany and adjacent areas.