Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Assessment (CDR-MIA)

二氧化碳去除模型比对评估 (CDR-MIA)

• 批准号: 311116263
• 负责人: Dr. Nico Bauer, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Forschungsbereich Transformationspfade
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2015-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/311116263?language=en
• 关键词: Carbon; Dioxide; Removal; Model; Intercomparison

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. In response, there is increasing focus and study on the potential of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods to enable negative emissions to complement CO2 emission mitigation efforts. However, the potentially positive and negative impacts in response to large-scale CDR remain poorly quantified and elucidated. The main aim of this project is to analyze the output from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP) phase 1 experiments to better assess the potential, and risks of large-scale CDR. CDR-MIP is a new initiative that brings together a suite of Earth System Models in a common framework to investigate CDR. The 1st phase of CDR-MIP, which includes two idealized experiments of direct CO2 air-capture, as well as afforestation and ocean alkalinization ones, is designed to investigate key questions concerning (a) climate reversibility, in the context of using CDR to return high future atmospheric CO2 concentrations to a lower (e.g., present day or pre-industrial) level and (b) the potential efficacy, feedbacks, time scales, and side effects of different CDR methods. While a significant amount of work has gone into designing CDR-MIP and a number of modeling groups from around the world have agreed to run the simulations, the project is currently entirely voluntary. Thus, it is unlikely that the model output will be quickly utilized. Dedicated funding is therefore needed to ensure the timely analysis of data and its public dissemination. We propose to also use the results of these analyses to better constrain the assumed effectiveness of CDR technologies in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)-generated Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios that are used to facilitate climate change research and assessment. Currently, carbon cycle feedbacks are not accounted for when CDR is included in IAM simulations and there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. We propose to do this by using the results from the CDR-MIP analyses to calculate a carbon cycle feedback based discount factor for CDR that will then be used to calibrate and re-run a SSP scenario with an IAM. In addition to this, new experiments will also be designed, run, and evaluated to investigate the response of the carbon cycle and climate system to the simultaneous implementation of multiple CDR methods. These experiments will build upon the CDR-MIP ones by combining some of the methods, such as afforestation and artificial ocean alkalinization. Subsequent analyses will allow the efficacy and risks of combined CDR to be compared to that of the individual implementations. Results of this project will provide a comprehensive assessment of CDR that can be discussed iteratively with partner projects in the SPP. Results of the analyses will also be made available to other projects participating in the SPP.

持续的人为温室气体排放正在改变气候，威胁着严重、普遍和不可逆转的影响。为此，人们越来越关注和研究二氧化碳去除（CDR）方法的潜力，以实现负排放以补充二氧化碳减排工作。然而，大规模 CDR 的潜在积极和消极影响仍然缺乏量化和阐明。该项目的主要目的是分析二氧化碳去除模型比对项目 (CDR-MIP) 第一阶段实验的输出，以更好地评估大规模 CDR 的潜力和风险。 CDR-MIP 是一项新举措，它将一套地球系统模型整合到一个共同框架中来研究 CDR。 CDR-MIP 的第一阶段包括两个直接二氧化碳空气捕获的理想化实验以及植树造林和海洋碱化实验，旨在研究以下关键问题：(a) 气候可逆性，在使用 CDR 将未来高大气二氧化碳浓度恢复到较低（例如，当前或工业化前）水平的背景下；(b) 气候变化的潜在功效、反馈、时间尺度和副作用 不同的CDR方法。虽然设计 CDR-MIP 已经投入了大量工作，并且来自世界各地的许多建模小组已同意运行模拟，但该项目目前完全是自愿的。因此，模型输出不太可能被快速利用。因此，需要专门资金来确保及时分析数据及其公开传播。我们建议还利用这些分析的结果来更好地限制综合评估模型（IAM）生成的共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景中CDR技术的假设有效性，这些情景用于促进气候变化研究和评估。目前，当 CDR 包含在 IAM 模拟中时，碳循环反馈并未被考虑在内，迫切需要填补这一知识空白。我们建议通过使用 CDR-MIP 分析的结果来计算基于碳循环反馈的 CDR 折扣因子，然后使用 IAM 校准和重新运行 SSP 场景。除此之外，还将设计、运行和评估新的实验，以研究碳循环和气候系统对同时实施多种CDR方法的响应。这些实验将在 CDR-MIP 实验的基础上，结合造林和人工海洋碱化等一些方法。随后的分析将允许将组合 CDR 的功效和风险与单独实施的功效和风险进行比较。该项目的结果将提供对 CDR 的全面评估，可以与 SPP 中的合作伙伴项目进行迭代讨论。分析结果也将提供给参与 SPP 的其他项目。