Regional sea level changes in the marginal seas of southeast Asia: Mechanisms and projections of possible 21st-century trends

东南亚边缘海区域海平面变化：21世纪可能趋势的机制和预测

• 批准号: 313881696
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Claus Böning
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Forschungseinheit Ozeandynamik
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2015-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/313881696?language=en
• 关键词: Regional; sea; level; changes; marginal

The western tropical Pacific represents an area with strong interannual and decadal sea level variations. While the changes in the open ocean are basically understood in terms of wind-driven redistributions of upper-ocean waters associated with major climate modes (ENSO, PDO), much less is known about the modification of these signals in the Indonesian Archipelago and the marginal seas and shelf areas of southeast Asia, i.e., about the relative role of remote and local forcing mechanisms. Projections of future trends in these areas are hampered since present climate models do not resolve the complex flow structures of the boundary currents and flows through the narrow passages, and are thus lacking potentially important processes, e.g., for connecting the changes in the western Pacific with the Indian Ocean, and for a realistic propagation of deep ocean changes onto the shelf areas and coastal waters.The goal of this project are to provide a regionally refined characterization and mechanistic interpretation of the sea level variability along the continental shelf and marginal seas of southern and southeastern Asia, and to provide regionally refined projections of the range of future sea level changes to be expected from the possible trends in the atmospheric conditions as simulated in 21st-century climate scenarios. The project uses a series of ocean model experiments that build on a global ocean-sea ice model with a resolution of 1/4° which is regionally refined to 1/20°.

热带西太平洋是一个海平面年际和年代际变化强烈的地区。虽然公海的变化基本上是根据与主要气候模式(ENSO、PDO)有关的上层海洋水的风力驱动的再分配来理解的，但对印度尼西亚群岛以及东南亚边缘海和陆架地区这些信号的修改，即关于远程和本地强迫机制的相对作用，我们知道的要少得多。这些地区未来趋势的预测受到阻碍，因为目前的气候模式没有解决边界流和流经狭窄通道的复杂流动结构，因此缺乏潜在的重要过程，例如连接西太平洋和印度洋的变化，以及现实地将深海变化传播到大陆架地区和沿海水域。该项目的目标是对南亚和东南亚大陆架和边缘海的海平面变化提供区域精细化的表征和机械解释，并根据在21世纪气候情景中模拟的大气条件的可能趋势，提供对未来海平面变化范围的区域精细化预测。该项目使用了一系列海洋模型实验，这些实验建立在分辨率为1/4°的全球海-海冰模式上，该模式在区域上被细化到1/20°。