Causes of Decadal to Centennial Regional Sea Level Variations (DECVAR-2)

十年至百年区域海平面变化的原因 (DECVAR-2)

• 批准号: 313915201
• 负责人: Dr. Johann Jungclaus
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2015-12-31 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/313915201?language=en
• 关键词: Causes; Decadal; Centennial; Regional; Sea

During the first phase of the SPP 1889 SeaLevel we investigated processes related to the impact of various forcing mechanisms on sea level projections as well as statistical properties of natural sea level variations along coastlines. Results are important to understand primary forcing components, regions where the forcing is most efficient as well as the way different models react to the same forcing thereby spanning an uncertainty range of model projections. Continuing this work, we will bring it to full fruition by focusing on future decadal and long-term regional sea level variations from basin scale down to local scale around the two SPP study regions, notably the western tropical Pacific and Indonesian through-flow region as well as the German Bight. For a better understanding of future sea level changes on decadal to centennial time-scales in terms of natural dynamic modes versus anthropogenic influences, it is important to identify potential underlying forcing factors as well as natural dynamical contributions which includes coastal dynamics. Our study will be based on a spectrum of numerical simulations, aided by observations to evaluate them. By jointly analyzing these results, the study aims at identifying causes for future regional to local sea level variations taking into account free (natural) climate modes as well as external forcing mechanisms, including anthropogenic forcing. DECVAR-2 is part of the SPP 1889 focus group on global to regional sea level variations and will also contribute sea level change information to the other focus groups with respect to sea level anomalies in the western tropical Pacific and ITF region as well as in the eastern North Atlantic with focus on the German Bight. Within the focus group on global to regional sea level variations the project will provide global sea level simulation and projections including knowledge about forcing mechanism for naturally and anthropogenically forced changes. As the only global sea level modeling approach it will attribute projected changes to different forcing mechanisms and provide a global context for regional sea level variability. Answers provided will be essential to reach the overarching SPP goals in the sense that process information will be provided affecting sea level on regional to local spatial scale that will enable projections or predictions in coastal areas. This information will be extremely important for future coastal management in the study regions and will form the basis for a better-informed planning of adaptation measures. It will also be essential to improve our understanding of sea level predictability in various parts of the world.

在SPP 1889海平面的第一阶段，我们调查了各种强迫机制对海平面预测的影响以及沿沿着自然海平面变化的统计特性。结果是很重要的，以了解主要强迫组件，地区的强迫是最有效的，以及不同的模式对相同的强迫反应，从而跨越模型预测的不确定性范围。继续这项工作，我们将使其充分实现的重点是未来的十年和长期的区域海平面变化从流域规模下降到当地规模的两个SPP研究区域，特别是热带太平洋西部和印度尼西亚的通流区域以及德国湾。为了更好地了解未来海平面变化的十年到百年的时间尺度上的自然动力模式与人为影响，重要的是要确定潜在的基本强迫因子以及自然动力的贡献，包括沿海动力。我们的研究将基于一系列的数值模拟，并辅以观察来评估它们。通过共同分析这些结果，该研究旨在确定未来区域到局部海平面变化的原因，同时考虑到自由（自然）气候模式以及外部强迫机制，包括人为强迫。DECVAR-2是SPP 1889全球至区域海平面变化重点小组的一部分，还将向其他重点小组提供关于热带太平洋西部和ITF区域以及北大西洋东部（重点是德国湾）海平面异常的海平面变化信息。在全球至区域海平面变化重点小组内，该项目将提供全球海平面模拟和预测，包括关于自然和人为强迫变化的强迫机制的知识。作为唯一的全球海平面模拟方法，它将预测的变化归因于不同的强迫机制，并为区域海平面变化提供全球背景。提供的答案对于实现SPP的总体目标至关重要，因为将提供影响区域到地方空间尺度的海平面的过程信息，从而能够对沿海地区进行预测或预测。这一信息对研究区域今后的沿海管理极为重要，并将成为更好地规划适应措施的基础。还必须提高我们对世界各地海平面可预测性的认识。