Probability of Seaweed Invasions into Antarctica (SINVA): Invasiveness vs. Invasibility

由于全球连通性的增强和气候条件的变化，全球范围内的生物入侵正在增加。并不是每个被引入新环境的物种都会成为入侵者，但如果从自然控制因素中释放出来，就会这样做。物种的侵袭性是由其生物学特性(即生理耐受性、繁殖策略)决定的。反过来，潜在接受区的入侵能力由物理化学(即合适的气候和底物条件)和生物(即竞争对手和食草动物的存在)环境决定。入侵的海藻有可能严重损害浅水底栖生态系统的结构和功能，对当地生物多样性造成不利影响。尚未报告将入侵海藻物种引入南极洲，但可能在不久的将来发生，因为气候变化(导致气温升高和南极绕极洋流减弱)以及用于旅游和科学目的的航运活动稳步增加。最近引进巴塔哥尼亚/马格兰/火地岛地区的三种海藻被认为有可能进一步扩散到南极洲。基于实验生态生理学(确定入侵性)和栖息地作图(确定入侵性)的组合方法，我们将为这三个候选物种生成可预测的物种分布模型。总体而言，该项目将确定最近引入巴塔哥尼亚和马格兰的海藻物种进一步扩大到南设得兰和南极洲半岛的可能性。作为最终结果，将提出一份关于南极半岛西部未来海藻设施的预测性地图。通过这种方式，该项目大大促进了南极研究优先计划1158的两个主要跨学科研究主题：通往低纬度的门户和对环境变化的反应。

Biological invasions are globally increasing, facilitated by a growing worldwide connectivity and changing climate conditions. Not every species introduced to a new environment will act as an invader, but will do so if released from its natural controlling factors. The invasiveness of a species is set by its biological traits (i.e. physiological tolerance, reproductive strategies). In turn, the invasibility of a potential recipient region is determined by the physico-chemical (i.e. suitable climate and substrate conditions) and biological (i.e. presence of competitors and grazers) settings. Invasive seaweeds have the potential to significantly impair structure and function of shallow water benthic ecosystems with detrimental effects on local biodiversity. The introduction of invasive seaweed species into Antarctica has not been reported yet, but might happen in the near future supported by climate change (entailing temperature increase and a weakening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and steadily increasing shipping activities for tourism, but also scientific purposes. Three seaweed species, which have been recently introduced to the Patagonia/Magallanes/Tierra del Fuego region are considered candidates for further spread into Antarctica. Based on a combined approach of experimental ecophysiology (to determine invasiveness) and habitat mapping (to characterize invasibility) we will generate predictive species distribution models for the three candidate species. Overall, this project will determine the likelihood of seaweed species recently introduced to Patagonia and Magallanes to further expand their range to the South Shetlands and the Western Antarctica Peninsula. As the final outcome a predictive map of future seaweed establishments at the Western Antarctic Peninsula will be presented. In this way, the project substantially contributes to two of the overarching cross-disciplinary research topics of the Priority Program 1158 on Antarctic Research: Gateway to lower latitudes and Response to environmental change.