The Etesian wind system and energy potential over the Aegean Sea; Past, present and future

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The aim of this project is to investigate the natural variations of the Etesian wind system over the Aegean Sea over the past 110 years, assess its future (2010-2049) variability using CORDEX projections under different RCP scenarios and estimate the future potential for wind energy production. The main aim of this proposal is to investigate the natural variability and predictability of the Etesian wind system over the Aegean Sea (between mainland Greece and Turkey) and the potential for wind energy production in the future. The proposed work will include the analysis of the Etesians over a longer period (1900-2010) than previously possible using the newly-released improved Version v2c of the 20th Century Reanalysis and the ECMWF's first atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century. The relationship between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic-Asian area and the regional wind field over the Aegean on different time scales will be studied using a variety of sophisticated multivariate statistics and novel clustering approaches. Further, the performance of Regional Climate Model (RCM) historical simulations of the European branch of Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating Etesians and their ability to replicate the observed variability, trends and the large scale circulation for the period 1971-2000 will be evaluated. The simulated results will be validated against reanalysis datasets and daily observational measurements from the mainland Greece, the Aegean Sea and the western coast of Turkey. An assessment of future Etesian wind variability in the CORDEX projections under the two Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 4.5 for the first half of the 21st century will be provided. Finally, the future Etesians wind energy potentials will be assessed in order to identify the areas that have suitable wind energy potential for wind turbine applications over the Aegean.