PRecipitation In past Millennia in Europe - Extension - back to Roman times

欧洲过去千年的降水 - 延伸 - 追溯到罗马时代

• 批准号: 151433236
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Jürg Luterbacher
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Geographie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2008-12-31 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/151433236?language=en
• 关键词: PRecipitation; past; Millennia; Europe; Extension

PRIME-2 will study the climate and the hydrological cycle in Europe and the Mediterranean area over the last 2,000 years, by combining information from low and high resolution terrestrial and marine proxy data. We will apply novel sophisticated statistical methods (Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling) and high-resolution climate modeling to reconstruct spatial fields of temperature and precipitation with associated uncertainties. Emphasis will be placed on the estimations of the amplitudes of natural climate variations at different temporal and spatial scales, ranging from regional to continental, and on the estimation of the influence of large-scale temperatures and external forcings on the European/Mediterranean hydrological regimes. We will also focus on the climate transitions between natural warm and cold / wet and dry periods from present back to Roman times and study the potential implications for past societies. The influence of external forcing factors such as orbital, solar and land use changes on the hydrological cycle will be disentangled by conducting a series of regional climate simulations with different forcing configurations for specific periods. These will also be used as a test bed to check the robustness of the statistical methods applied to reconstruct temperature and precipitation.

PRIME-2将通过结合低分辨率和高分辨率陆地和海洋代理数据的信息，研究欧洲和地中海地区过去2000年的气候和水文循环。我们将应用新颖的复杂统计方法（贝叶斯分层模型）和高分辨率气候模型来重建具有相关不确定性的温度和降水空间场。重点将放在不同时空尺度（从区域到大陆）自然气候变化幅度的估计，以及大尺度气温和外部强迫对欧洲/地中海水文状况的影响的估计。我们还将重点关注从现在到罗马时代的自然温暖和寒冷/潮湿和干燥时期之间的气候转变，并研究对过去社会的潜在影响。通过在特定时期进行一系列不同强迫配置的区域气候模拟，可以消除轨道、太阳和土地利用变化等外强迫因素对水文循环的影响。这些也将用作测试平台，以检查用于重建温度和降水的统计方法的稳健性。