Does a Minimum Wage Boost Automation and Outsourcing?

这项拟议的研究项目分析了企业和工人对引入最低工资的长期调整。我们的研究项目是由最近的技术进步推动的，这些技术进步允许公司用相对廉价的资本取代劳动力，或者将生产步骤外包给更具成本效益的公司。然而，人们仍然很少知道最低工资政策如何影响公司的资本密集度及其生产组织，以及对受雇于这些公司的工人的工资和就业的影响。为了在这个方向上取得进展，我们利用了德国自20世纪90年代以来引入的特定行业最低工资所引起的差异。结合来自社会保障记录的丰富的公司和工人级别的数据，我们使用详细的行业分类来识别覆盖行业的公司和工人。然后，我们的经验策略将匹配与差异性方法相结合。我们将首先为每个承保公司(或工人)匹配一个控制公司，该公司在采用之前的几年在人口结构或职业结构、资本密集度和利润方面与承保公司相似，但没有采用最低工资。为了确定最低工资政策对资本密集度、生产组织和工资或就业结构的影响，我们随后比较了实施最低工资后几年覆盖和未覆盖企业的结果。我们的分析试图回答五个问题：1)在引入最低工资后，覆盖行业的公司是否变得更加资本密集型或将生产步骤外包？2)我们主要观察到这些变化是在新公司还是在覆盖行业的现有公司？3)最低工资是否会导致常规任务工作被非常规任务工作取代？4)工人更有可能从覆盖行业的常规工作转移到非常规工作；或者他们更有可能完全离开最低工资行业？5)哪些工人受到这些变化的影响最大？我们的发现有助于对最低工资的研究，因为我们关注的是企业在技术和生产组织方面的长期调整，而不是许多文献关注的短期就业效应。我们的研究进一步补充了RBTC和离岸外包文献，分析了投入价格的相对变化是否有利于离岸活动、资本投资或在涵盖行业中执行非常规任务的工作。因此，我们提议的研究有助于一场长期存在的辩论，即新技术是否可能取代现有工作的很大一部分。最后，我们的研究具有重要的政策含义。最低工资的引入通常是为了减少不平等或支持所谓的公平收入。然而，慷慨的最低工资可能会促使人们采用节省劳动力的技术，这实际上可能会增加不平等，而不是减少不平等。

The proposed research project analyzes the long-run adjustments of firms and workers in response to the introduction of a minimum wage. Our research project is motivated by recent technological advances which allow firms to substitute labor with relatively cheaper capital or outsource production steps to more cost-efficient firms. Yet, little is still known how minimum wage policies affect firms capital intensity and their organization of production, as well as the consequences for wages and employment of workers employed in those firms. To make progress in this direction, we use the variation induced by the introduction of industry-specific minimum wages in Germany since the 1990s. Combining rich firm- and worker-level data from social security records, we use detailed industry classifications to identify firms and workers in the covered industries. Our empirical strategy then combines matching with a difference-in-difference approach. We will first match for each covered firm (or worker) a control firm which in years prior to the adoption was similar to the covered firm in terms of the demographic or occupational structure, capital intensity and profits, but where the minimum wage was not adopted. To identify the effect of the minimum wage policy on capital intensity, the organization of production and the wage or employment structure, we then compare outcomes in covered and uncovered firms in the years after the introduction of the minimum wage. Our analysis seeks to answer five questions: 1) Do firms in covered industries become more capital-intensive or outsource production steps after the introduction of the minimum wage? 2) Do we observe these changes mostly among new firms or among incumbent firms in the covered industries? 3) Does a minimum wage lead to substitution of routine-task jobs by non-routine task jobs? 4) Are workers more likely to move from routine jobs to non-routine jobs within the covered industries; or are they more likely to leave the minimum wage industries altogether? 5) Which workers are most affected by these changes? Our findings contribute to the research on minimum wages by focusing on firms long-run adjustments in technology and the organization of production - rather than the short-run employment effects that much of the literature has focused on. Our research further adds to the RBTC and offshoring literature by analyzing whether a relative shift in input prices favors offshoring activities, capital investments or jobs performing non-routine tasks in covered industries. As such, our proposed research contributes to a long-standing debate whether new technologies may substitute for a substantial share of current jobs. Finally, our research has important policy implications. Minimum wages are often introduced to reduce inequality or support a so-called fair income. And yet, generous minimum wages may trigger the adoption of labor-saving technologies which may actually increase inequality rather than reduce it.