Heat waves in Berlin, Germany -- Climate projections

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This project will investigate the effects of the dynamic interaction between urban climate, urban structures and global climate change with focus on heat-related hazard in Berlin, Germany. In particular, we will study the spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of heat-related hazard reducing actions under global climate change, we will specifically address interactions of passive and active building cooling with the urban atmosphere as well as the cooling potential of urban vegetation.Characteristics of the current and projected future climate of Berlin will be derived from available climate simulation ensembles on the global and regional scales (CMIP5, CORDEX). Further downscaling of global climate model simulations to the urban scale will be conducted for the periods 2001-2010 and 2041-2050 as well as characteristic past and future summers, in order to investigate changes in the urban effects on climate under potential global climate change. Here we will apply the regional climate model COSMO-CLM and its urban parameterization DCEP. Heat wave statistics will be derived and compared for both the ensemble and the downscaled climate data.In order to apply COSMO-CLM for these purposes, we will enhance DCEP by adding a building energy module (BEM) for the simulation of indoor air temperatures, building energy consumption and anthropogenic heat release. Furthermore, we will consider spatially and temporally resolved heat from traffic. The DCEP-BEM module will be evaluated with observations. Reanalysis-driven twelve-year simulations with COSMO-CLM and DCEP-BEM will then be used to evaluate the ability of the enhanced models to describe observed urban climate characteristics. This is a prerequisite for applying COSMO-CLM with DCEP-BEM in the above mentioned climate simulations.