Heat waves in Berlin, Germany -- Climate projections

该项目将研究城市气候、城市结构和全球气候变化之间的动态相互作用的影响，重点是德国柏林与热有关的灾害。特别是，我们将研究这些量的空间和时间变化。为了评估在全球气候变化下与热相关的减灾措施的有效性，我们将专门讨论被动和主动建筑冷却与城市大气的相互作用以及城市植被的冷却潜力。柏林当前和预测未来气候的特征将来自全球和区域尺度的气候模拟集合（CMIP 5，CORDEX）。将对2001-2010年和2041-2050年期间以及过去和未来的夏季进行进一步缩小全球气候模式模拟到城市尺度的工作，以便调查在潜在的全球气候变化情况下城市对气候影响的变化。在这里，我们将应用区域气候模式COSMO-CLM及其城市参数化DCEP。为了将COSMO-CLM应用于这些目的，我们将通过增加建筑物能量模块（BEM）来模拟室内空气温度，建筑物能源消耗和人为热释放来增强DCEP。此外，我们将考虑空间和时间上解决交通热量。DCEP-BEM模块将通过观察进行评价。再分析驱动的COSMO-CLM和DCEP-BEM的12年模拟，然后将被用来评估增强模型描述观测到的城市气候特征的能力。这是在上述气候模拟中应用COSMO-CLM和DCEP-BEM的先决条件。

This project will investigate the effects of the dynamic interaction between urban climate, urban structures and global climate change with focus on heat-related hazard in Berlin, Germany. In particular, we will study the spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of heat-related hazard reducing actions under global climate change, we will specifically address interactions of passive and active building cooling with the urban atmosphere as well as the cooling potential of urban vegetation.Characteristics of the current and projected future climate of Berlin will be derived from available climate simulation ensembles on the global and regional scales (CMIP5, CORDEX). Further downscaling of global climate model simulations to the urban scale will be conducted for the periods 2001-2010 and 2041-2050 as well as characteristic past and future summers, in order to investigate changes in the urban effects on climate under potential global climate change. Here we will apply the regional climate model COSMO-CLM and its urban parameterization DCEP. Heat wave statistics will be derived and compared for both the ensemble and the downscaled climate data.In order to apply COSMO-CLM for these purposes, we will enhance DCEP by adding a building energy module (BEM) for the simulation of indoor air temperatures, building energy consumption and anthropogenic heat release. Furthermore, we will consider spatially and temporally resolved heat from traffic. The DCEP-BEM module will be evaluated with observations. Reanalysis-driven twelve-year simulations with COSMO-CLM and DCEP-BEM will then be used to evaluate the ability of the enhanced models to describe observed urban climate characteristics. This is a prerequisite for applying COSMO-CLM with DCEP-BEM in the above mentioned climate simulations.