Estimation of the indirect losses in the Japanese economy due to natural disasters

自然灾害对日本经济间接损失的估计

• 批准号: 19K13689
• 负责人: KRICHENE HAZEM
• 金额: $ 2.66万
• 依托单位: University of Hyogo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2019-04-01 至 2020-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-19K13689/
• 关键词: Natural disasters; Tohoku earthquake; Agent-based model; Japanese supply chain; Bank-firm network; economic policy

Modern economies are frequently affected by natural disasters and domestic and overseas financial crises. These events disrupt production and cause multiple other types of economic losses, including negative impacts on the banking system. Understanding the transmission mechanism that causes various negative second-order post-catastrophe effects is crucial for policymakers to develop more efficient recovery strategies. We could in this project build an agent-based model inspired by the paper of Inoue and Todo (2019). Our model is calibrated on the Japanese supply chain, and the bank-firm network of Japan, during the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (2011), and we could show the more risky industries and prefectures due to the natural disasters.

现代经济经常受到自然灾害和国内外金融危机的影响。这些事件扰乱了生产，并造成了多种其他类型的经济损失，包括对银行体系的负面影响。了解导致灾难后各种负面二阶效应的传导机制，对于政策制定者制定更有效的复苏战略至关重要。在这个项目中，我们可以在井上和Todo(2019)的论文的启发下建立一个基于代理的模型。我们的模型是在2011年东北地震和海啸期间的日本供应链和日本银行-公司网络上进行校准的，我们可以显示由于自然灾害而风险更高的行业和县。