Islamistic radicalization within prison settings: Risk patterns and trajectories

鉴于全球极端主义暴力行为数量的增加，该项目调查了年轻成年囚犯中助长激进化的态度有多普遍，以及德国监狱系统如何调解这种态度。有必要进行犯罪学研究，为查明监禁期间的激进主义趋势和有效防止其巩固提供指导。然而，迄今为止，人们对激进化的内在机制和相关因素知之甚少。同样，也缺乏关于监狱环境中相关潜在风险程度的实证研究结果。因此，该项目旨在根据Kruglanski（2014年）的模型，从数量和质量上评估表明个别激进化过程或可能解释其形成的风险标准的普遍性。这些风险标准是：传记特征、个人变量、意识形态因素（伊斯兰主义和/或萨拉菲斯特态度）和宗教知识以及影响个人的外部因素。针对这些特点的评估工具已经开发和测试。- 作为第一项研究的一部分，将招募年轻穆斯林囚犯（N = 150）进行重复调查，以评估上述特征。本研究侧重于这些变量之间的关联，并试图比较两个时间点的评估，以及拘留开始和结束时的监狱条件。- 在第二项研究中，除了调查外，还将对被贴上伊斯兰鼓动者标签或正在成为伊斯兰鼓动者的囚犯（在巴伐利亚州和其他联邦州的监狱中确定）进行访谈（N = 40）。目标是确定激进化的个别模式。监狱官员提供的信息和监狱档案的意见将丰富这一信息。根据这些定性分析和所有现有信息的汇总，将对数据进行分析，以了解个人的发展模式和伊斯兰激进化的因果过程。这两项研究提供的数据可能有助于为在监狱环境中启动有效的预防措施提供指导。与此同时，将开发一种评估工具，能够衡量囚犯激进化的程度以及由此产生的潜在危险或实施恐怖袭击的暴力潜力。

In the light of a global increase in the number of violent acts of extremism, this project inquires how prevalent sets of attitudes conducive to radicalization are among young adult prisoners and how such attitudes may be mediated by the German prison system. There is a need for criminological research that could provide guidelines for identifying trends to radicalism during the course of imprisonment and for effectively preventing their consolidation. To date however, little is known about underlying mechanisms and relevant factors in the context of radicalization. Similarly, empirical findings about the extent of associated risk potentials within prison settings are lacking. The project therefore aims to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the prevalence of risk criteria that are indicative of individual radicalization processes or may account for their formation based on the model of Kruglanski (2014). Such risk criteria are: biographical characteristics, personal variables, ideological factors (Islamist and/or Salafist attitudes) and religious knowledge as well as external factors influencing the individual. Assessment instruments for those characteristics have been developed and tested. - As part of the first study a sample of young Muslim prisoners (N = 150) will be recruited for a repeated survey to assess those characteristics mentioned above. This study focuses on the association of the variables among them and tries to compare the assessments of the two time points also with regard to the conditions in the prison at the beginning and the end of the detention. - In the second study prisoners who were labeled as a Islamist agitators or who are being on their way to become an Islamist agitator (identified in Bavarian and in prisons in other federal states) will be interviewed (N = 40) in addition to the surveys. The goal is to identify individual patterns of radicalization. This information will be enriched by information given by the prison officers and through observations from prison files. Based on these qualitative analyses and the aggregation of all available information the data will be analyzed with regard to individual developmental patterns and with regard to causal processes of Islamist radicalization. The data provided by both studies may help to provide guidance for initiating effective prevention measures in prison settings. At the same time an assessment instrument will be developed that is able to measure the degree of radicalization of a prisoner and his or her resulting potential hazards or violent potentials for committing a terrorist attack.