Der Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Wirkung auf Beschäftigung, Lohn und Reallokation

德国最低工资：对就业、工资和重新分配的影响

• 批准号: 388002723
• 负责人: Dr. Philipp vom Berge
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2016-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/388002723?language=en
• 关键词: Der; Mindestlohn; Deutschland; Wirkung; auf

Over the past two decades, Germany has witnessed an unprecedented increase in wage inequality, in particular at the lower end of the wage distribution. Between 1995 and 2012, wages at the 10th percentile declined in real terms by 8%, whereas median wages remained roughly constant and wages at the 85th percentile increased by 13%. Over the same time period, collective bargaining, covering more than 90% of workers in the early 1990s, has eroded, now covering no more than 45% of workers. Against this backdrop, the German government introduced in January 2015, for the first time in its history, a nationwide minimum wage of 8.50 Euro per hour, which is roughly at the 15th percentile of the 2013 wage distribution (Destatis, 2016). There is a heated and ongoing debate among academics and policy makers alike whether this policy will raise the living standards of the working poor, or whether it will instead harm exactly those workers it is supposed to help, by destroying their jobs. The goal of our proposed research is to shed light on this debate, by carefully evaluating the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage on employment, wages and wage inequality, firm entry and exit, and the reallocation of workers from low to high productivity firms. To guide the empirical analysis, we will develop a general theoretical framework that, in contrast to existing models of the labour market study minimum wage effects, combines heterogeneous firms producing differentiated products with heterogeneous workers and bargaining. Our empirical analysis will be based on a new data product developed by one of the project applicants, an up-to-date monthly panel on the employment and unemployment status of all individuals covered by the social security system, combined with information on individual wages and hours worked from the IAB Employment History (BEH) database. For identification, we will exploit variation in the 'bite' of the minimum wage (i.e., the share of workers earning a wage below 8.50 Euro/hour one or two years prior to the introduction of the minimum wage) across regions and firms, and adopt a difference-in-difference strategy in combination with an event study approach. Our novel conceptual and empirical contributions will significantly improve our understanding of the channels through which the minimum wage impacts on the labour market. As such, our proposed research will provide important new insights to the minimum wage debate not only in Germany, but also in other countries.

在过去20年中，德国的工资不平等空前加剧，特别是在工资分配的低端。从1995年到2012年，第10百分位的工资真实的下降了8%，而工资中位数基本保持不变，第85百分位的工资增长了13%。在同一时期，在20世纪90年代初覆盖90%以上工人的集体谈判已经受到侵蚀，现在覆盖不到45%的工人。在此背景下，德国政府于2015年1月在其历史上首次引入了全国最低工资8.50欧元/小时，这大约是2013年工资分布的第15个百分点（Destatis，2016）。学术界和政策制定者之间正在进行激烈的辩论，这一政策是否会提高贫困劳动者的生活水平，或者它是否会通过破坏他们的工作而伤害那些应该帮助的工人。我们提出的研究的目标是阐明这一争论，通过仔细评估引入国家最低工资对就业的影响，工资和工资不平等，企业进入和退出，以及工人从低到高生产率企业的重新分配。为了指导实证分析，我们将开发一个一般的理论框架，在现有的劳动力市场模型研究最低工资的影响，结合异质企业生产差异化的产品与异质工人和讨价还价。我们的实证分析将基于一个项目申请人开发的新数据产品，一个关于社会保障系统所覆盖的所有个人的就业和失业状况的最新月度面板，结合IAB就业历史（BEH）数据库中的个人工资和工作时间信息。为了识别，我们将利用最低工资“咬”的变化（即，（b）在各地区和各公司之间，对在实行最低工资之前一年或两年内工资低于8.50欧元/小时的工人的比例进行调查，并采取“差异中的差异”战略，同时采用事件研究方法。我们新颖的概念和经验的贡献将显着提高我们的最低工资对劳动力市场的影响的渠道的理解。因此，我们提出的研究将为最低工资辩论提供重要的新见解，不仅在德国，而且在其他国家。