Der Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Wirkung auf Beschäftigung, Lohn und Reallokation

德国最低工资：对就业、工资和重新分配的影响

• 批准号: 388002723
• 负责人: Dr. Philipp vom Berge
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2016-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/388002723?language=en
• 关键词: Der; Mindestlohn; Deutschland; Wirkung; auf

Over the past two decades, Germany has witnessed an unprecedented increase in wage inequality, in particular at the lower end of the wage distribution. Between 1995 and 2012, wages at the 10th percentile declined in real terms by 8%, whereas median wages remained roughly constant and wages at the 85th percentile increased by 13%. Over the same time period, collective bargaining, covering more than 90% of workers in the early 1990s, has eroded, now covering no more than 45% of workers. Against this backdrop, the German government introduced in January 2015, for the first time in its history, a nationwide minimum wage of 8.50 Euro per hour, which is roughly at the 15th percentile of the 2013 wage distribution (Destatis, 2016). There is a heated and ongoing debate among academics and policy makers alike whether this policy will raise the living standards of the working poor, or whether it will instead harm exactly those workers it is supposed to help, by destroying their jobs. The goal of our proposed research is to shed light on this debate, by carefully evaluating the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage on employment, wages and wage inequality, firm entry and exit, and the reallocation of workers from low to high productivity firms. To guide the empirical analysis, we will develop a general theoretical framework that, in contrast to existing models of the labour market study minimum wage effects, combines heterogeneous firms producing differentiated products with heterogeneous workers and bargaining. Our empirical analysis will be based on a new data product developed by one of the project applicants, an up-to-date monthly panel on the employment and unemployment status of all individuals covered by the social security system, combined with information on individual wages and hours worked from the IAB Employment History (BEH) database. For identification, we will exploit variation in the 'bite' of the minimum wage (i.e., the share of workers earning a wage below 8.50 Euro/hour one or two years prior to the introduction of the minimum wage) across regions and firms, and adopt a difference-in-difference strategy in combination with an event study approach. Our novel conceptual and empirical contributions will significantly improve our understanding of the channels through which the minimum wage impacts on the labour market. As such, our proposed research will provide important new insights to the minimum wage debate not only in Germany, but also in other countries.

在过去20年里，德国的工资不平等前所未有地加剧，尤其是在工资分配的低端。1995年至2012年间，第10百分位数的工资实际下降了8%，而工资中位数基本保持不变，第85百分位数的工资增长了13%。在同一时期，集体谈判制度在上世纪90年代初覆盖了90%以上的工人，而现在覆盖的工人不超过45%。在此背景下，德国政府于2015年1月首次推出了全国最低工资标准，每小时8.50欧元，大致相当于2013年工资分配的第15个百分位数（Destatis, 2016）。在学术界和政策制定者之间，一场激烈而持续的争论是，这项政策是否会提高贫困工人的生活水平，还是会损害那些本应得到帮助的工人的工作，从而毁掉他们的工作。我们提出的研究目标是通过仔细评估引入国家最低工资对就业、工资和工资不平等、企业进入和退出以及工人从低生产率企业向高生产率企业的再分配的影响，来阐明这一辩论。为了指导实证分析，我们将开发一个一般的理论框架，与现有的劳动力市场研究最低工资效应的模型相比，将生产差异化产品的异质企业与异质工人和议价结合起来。我们的实证分析将基于一个项目申请人开发的新数据产品，该产品是关于社会保障体系所涵盖的所有个人就业和失业状况的最新月度面板，并结合IAB就业历史（BEH）数据库中的个人工资和工作时间信息。为了识别，我们将利用不同地区和公司的最低工资的“咬”变化（即，在引入最低工资之前一到两年，工资低于8.50欧元/小时的工人所占的比例），并结合事件研究方法采用差异中差异策略。我们的新概念和实证贡献将显著提高我们对最低工资对劳动力市场影响的渠道的理解。因此，我们提出的研究将为德国乃至其他国家的最低工资辩论提供重要的新见解。