Der Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Wirkung auf Beschäftigung, Lohn und Reallokation

德国最低工资：对就业、工资和重新分配的影响

• 批准号: 388002723
• 负责人: Dr. Philipp vom Berge
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2016-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/388002723?language=en
• 关键词: Der; Mindestlohn; Deutschland; Wirkung; auf

Over the past two decades, Germany has witnessed an unprecedented increase in wage inequality, in particular at the lower end of the wage distribution. Between 1995 and 2012, wages at the 10th percentile declined in real terms by 8%, whereas median wages remained roughly constant and wages at the 85th percentile increased by 13%. Over the same time period, collective bargaining, covering more than 90% of workers in the early 1990s, has eroded, now covering no more than 45% of workers. Against this backdrop, the German government introduced in January 2015, for the first time in its history, a nationwide minimum wage of 8.50 Euro per hour, which is roughly at the 15th percentile of the 2013 wage distribution (Destatis, 2016). There is a heated and ongoing debate among academics and policy makers alike whether this policy will raise the living standards of the working poor, or whether it will instead harm exactly those workers it is supposed to help, by destroying their jobs. The goal of our proposed research is to shed light on this debate, by carefully evaluating the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage on employment, wages and wage inequality, firm entry and exit, and the reallocation of workers from low to high productivity firms. To guide the empirical analysis, we will develop a general theoretical framework that, in contrast to existing models of the labour market study minimum wage effects, combines heterogeneous firms producing differentiated products with heterogeneous workers and bargaining. Our empirical analysis will be based on a new data product developed by one of the project applicants, an up-to-date monthly panel on the employment and unemployment status of all individuals covered by the social security system, combined with information on individual wages and hours worked from the IAB Employment History (BEH) database. For identification, we will exploit variation in the 'bite' of the minimum wage (i.e., the share of workers earning a wage below 8.50 Euro/hour one or two years prior to the introduction of the minimum wage) across regions and firms, and adopt a difference-in-difference strategy in combination with an event study approach. Our novel conceptual and empirical contributions will significantly improve our understanding of the channels through which the minimum wage impacts on the labour market. As such, our proposed research will provide important new insights to the minimum wage debate not only in Germany, but also in other countries.

过去二十年来，德国的工资不平等现象空前加剧，特别是在工资分配的低端。 1995年至2012年间，第10个百分点的工资实际下降了8%，而工资中位数基本保持不变，第85个百分点的工资增长了13%。同一时期，集体谈判在 20 世纪 90 年代初覆盖了 90% 以上的工人，但现在已经削弱了，只覆盖了不超过 45% 的工人。在此背景下，德国政府于 2015 年 1 月历史上首次推出全国最低工资为每小时 8.50 欧元，大致位于 2013 年工资分布的第 15 个百分点（Destatis，2016）。学术界和政策制定者之间一直存在着激烈的争论，这项政策是否会提高贫​​困工人的生活水平，或者是否会毁掉他们的工作，从而伤害那些本来应该帮助的工人。我们提出的研究的目的是通过仔细评估全国最低工资的引入对就业、工资和工资不平等、企业进入和退出以及工人从低生产率企业到高生产率企业的重新分配的影响，阐明这场辩论。为了指导实证分析，我们将开发一个通用的理论框架，与现有的劳动力市场研究最低工资影响模型相反，它将生产差异化产品的异质企业与异质工人和讨价还价结合起来。我们的实证分析将基于项目申请人之一开发的新数据产品、社会保障体系覆盖的所有个人的就业和失业状况的最新月度小组，以及 IAB 就业历史 (BEH) 数据库中的个人工资和工作时间信息。为了进行识别，我们将利用不同地区和企业的最低工资“咬合”（即引入最低工资前一两年内工资低于 8.50 欧元/小时的工人比例）的变化，并采用双重差分策略与事件研究方法相结合。我们新颖的概念和实证贡献将显着提高我们对最低工资影响劳动力市场的渠道的理解。因此，我们提出的研究将为德国乃至其他国家的最低工资辩论提供重要的新见解。