Der Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Wirkung auf Beschäftigung, Lohn und Reallokation

德国最低工资：对就业、工资和重新分配的影响

• 批准号: 388002723
• 负责人: Dr. Philipp vom Berge
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2016-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/388002723?language=en
• 关键词: Der; Mindestlohn; Deutschland; Wirkung; auf

Over the past two decades, Germany has witnessed an unprecedented increase in wage inequality, in particular at the lower end of the wage distribution. Between 1995 and 2012, wages at the 10th percentile declined in real terms by 8%, whereas median wages remained roughly constant and wages at the 85th percentile increased by 13%. Over the same time period, collective bargaining, covering more than 90% of workers in the early 1990s, has eroded, now covering no more than 45% of workers. Against this backdrop, the German government introduced in January 2015, for the first time in its history, a nationwide minimum wage of 8.50 Euro per hour, which is roughly at the 15th percentile of the 2013 wage distribution (Destatis, 2016). There is a heated and ongoing debate among academics and policy makers alike whether this policy will raise the living standards of the working poor, or whether it will instead harm exactly those workers it is supposed to help, by destroying their jobs. The goal of our proposed research is to shed light on this debate, by carefully evaluating the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage on employment, wages and wage inequality, firm entry and exit, and the reallocation of workers from low to high productivity firms. To guide the empirical analysis, we will develop a general theoretical framework that, in contrast to existing models of the labour market study minimum wage effects, combines heterogeneous firms producing differentiated products with heterogeneous workers and bargaining. Our empirical analysis will be based on a new data product developed by one of the project applicants, an up-to-date monthly panel on the employment and unemployment status of all individuals covered by the social security system, combined with information on individual wages and hours worked from the IAB Employment History (BEH) database. For identification, we will exploit variation in the 'bite' of the minimum wage (i.e., the share of workers earning a wage below 8.50 Euro/hour one or two years prior to the introduction of the minimum wage) across regions and firms, and adopt a difference-in-difference strategy in combination with an event study approach. Our novel conceptual and empirical contributions will significantly improve our understanding of the channels through which the minimum wage impacts on the labour market. As such, our proposed research will provide important new insights to the minimum wage debate not only in Germany, but also in other countries.

在过去的二十年里，德国见证了前所未有的工资不平等加剧，尤其是在工资分配的低端。1995至2012年间，第10个百分位数的实质工资下降了8%，而工资中位数大致保持不变，而第85个百分位数的工资增长了13%。在同一时期，集体谈判在20世纪90年代初覆盖了90%以上的工人，现在只覆盖不到45%的工人。在此背景下，德国政府于2015年1月在其历史上首次引入了每小时8.5欧元的全国最低工资，这大约是2013年工资分配的第15个百分位数(Destatis，2016)。学者和政策制定者之间正在进行激烈的辩论，这项政策是会提高贫困工薪阶层的生活水平，还是会通过毁掉他们的工作来伤害那些本应帮助他们的工人。我们提议的研究的目的是通过仔细评估引入国家最低工资对就业、工资和工资不平等、公司进入和退出以及工人从低生产率公司到高生产率公司的重新分配的影响，阐明这场辩论。为了指导实证分析，我们将建立一个一般的理论框架，与劳动力市场研究最低工资效应的现有模型不同，该框架将生产差异化产品的异质企业与异质工人和讨价还价结合在一起。我们的经验分析将基于一位项目申请者开发的新数据产品，即关于社会保障制度覆盖的所有个人的就业和失业状况的最新月度小组，以及来自IAB就业历史(BEH)数据库的个人工资和工作时间的信息。为了识别，我们将利用最低工资(即在引入最低工资前一到两年工资低于8.50欧元/小时的工人的份额)在地区和公司之间的差异，并采用差异战略和事件研究方法相结合。我们新的概念和经验贡献将极大地提高我们对最低工资对劳动力市场影响的渠道的理解。因此，我们拟议的研究不仅将为德国最低工资辩论提供重要的新见解，也将为其他国家提供重要的新见解。