A modeling approach for accurately predicting land use changes brought by human decisions

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So far, the project has three main achievements. First, fieldwork in the world heritage landscape of Ifugao rice terraces was successfully implemented. Farmers, government officials, and academic experts were interviewed regarding the factors that lead to agricultural abandonment. Second, a statistical model of agricultural abandonment was developed. The developed statistical model identified the spatial and non-spatial driving factors of agricultural abandonment based on past trends of explanatory variables. Third, an agent-based model was developed that simulates the future status of the Ifugao rice terraces based on policy scenarios. The social-environment driving factors that were gathered from the fieldwork and the statistical model were incorporated in this model.