A modeling approach for accurately predicting land use changes brought by human decisions

准确预测人类决策带来的土地利用变化的建模方法

• 批准号: 22KJ1856
• 负责人: Estacio Ian
• 金额: $ 1.09万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2023-03-08 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22KJ1856/
• 关键词: GIS; Land cover change; Social-ecological system; Agricultural abandonment; Agent-based model; Statistical model; Land-use simulation; Logistic regression

So far, the project has three main achievements. First, fieldwork in the world heritage landscape of Ifugao rice terraces was successfully implemented. Farmers, government officials, and academic experts were interviewed regarding the factors that lead to agricultural abandonment. Second, a statistical model of agricultural abandonment was developed. The developed statistical model identified the spatial and non-spatial driving factors of agricultural abandonment based on past trends of explanatory variables. Third, an agent-based model was developed that simulates the future status of the Ifugao rice terraces based on policy scenarios. The social-environment driving factors that were gathered from the fieldwork and the statistical model were incorporated in this model.

到目前为止，该项目取得了三项主要成果。首先，成功开展了世界遗产景观伊富高梯田的实地考察。农民、政府官员和学术专家就导致农业废弃的因素进行了采访。第二，开发了农业废弃统计模型。开发的统计模型确定的空间和非空间的驱动因素的基础上，过去的趋势解释变量的农业放弃。第三，开发了一个基于代理人的模型，模拟未来的地位，伊富高水稻梯田的政策方案的基础上。社会环境的驱动因素，从实地调查和统计模型中收集到的被纳入这个模型。

项目成果

A statistical model of land use/cover change integrating logistic and linear models: An application to agricultural abandonment

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2023.103339
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinformation
• 作者: I. Estacio;C. Sianipar;K. Onitsuka;Mrittika Basu;S. Hoshino