An application of long-term meteorological prediction for wheat management in northern Japan.

2010年，北海道出现了创纪录的夏季高温，冬小麦产量降至常年的65%。夏季高温一直是北海道冬小麦产量的主要决定因素。探索了长期气象预报在小麦管理中的应用。我们发现，从1998年到2013年，日本北部4月和8月的月平均气温一直呈强烈的负相关。我们还发现，春季较低的气温和夏季较高的气温共同导致了库(粒数)和源(光合作用物质的供应)的严重失衡，即更大的库尺寸和缩短的灌浆期，尤其是在日照时数较低的情况下。我们认为，小麦库容管理和提早抽穗是抵御夏季高温的重要和最有效的措施。

In 2010, a record-setting high summer temperature occurred in Hokkaido, and the yield of winter wheat was reduced to 65% of that in an average year. Summer heat stress has been a major determinant for winter wheat production in Hokkaido. We explored application of long-term meteorological prediction for wheat management. We found that monthly mean temperatures for April and August have been strongly and negatively correlated from 1998 to 2013 in northern Japan. We also found that the combination of lower spring temperatures and higher summer air temperatures lead to a severe imbalance in sink (number of grains) and source (supply of photosynthate) , that is, larger sink size and a curtailed grain-filling period, especially under lower sunshine duration condition. We consider that sink size management and earlier heading of wheat are important and most effective measures against high summer temperature.