Reducing the uncertainty on regional and local climate induced by land-atmospherefeedbacks

减少陆地-大气反馈引起的区域和当地气候的不确定性

• 批准号: 401857120
• 负责人: Dr. Merja Tölle
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Bereich Klimatologie, Klimadynamik und Klimawandel
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/401857120?language=en
• 关键词: Reducing; uncertainty; regional; local; climate

Land use and land cover change is recognized as an important forcing on local, regional and global climate, and consequently alter the productivity of agriculture. Continued pressure on agricultural land, food insecurity and required adaptation to climate change have made integrated assessment and modelling of future land surface development increasingly important. Recent reviews revealed that neither regional climate modelling approaches nor the analysis tools are fully up to the task. There is a need for reducing the uncertainty on climate introduced by land-atmosphere feedbacks by integrating relevant processes interactively into regional climate models, which are important for ecosystem-atmosphere interactions on seasonal, inter-decadal and climate time scales. Furthermore, missing processes need to be included, which are relevant for convection-permitting simulations. Generally, a change of the simulated climate elements through integration of these climate relevant processes is expected. Although vague are the direction and strength of these feedbacks and their mutual influence. The novelty of this project is to account for transient anthropogenic land use, for dynamical vegetation, and for areas of agricultural fields, which cover major land parts of the world, on regional and local scale. The focus needs to be on analysis of natural variability and sensitivity of different plant ecosystems to changes of environmental and climatic conditions. Furthermore, the influence of vegetation and land use/cover changes on land-atmosphere coupling and climate needs to be estimated. The key challenges to consider the inherent uncertainty are to advance regional climate modelling for improved assessment of climate change impacts on extremes and food security. Importantly, the work strategy includes both to stimulate excellent science and to support capacity and network building including demonstration of improved impact assessments with links to decision makers.

土地利用和土地覆被变化被认为是对地方、区域和全球气候的一种重要影响，并因此改变农业生产力。对农业用地的持续压力、粮食不安全和必须适应气候变化，使得对未来地表发展的综合评估和建模变得越来越重要。最近的审查表明，区域气候模拟方法和分析工具都不能完全胜任这项任务。有必要通过将相关过程交互式地纳入区域气候模式来减少陆地-大气反馈对气候带来的不确定性，这对于季节、年代际和气候时间尺度上的生态系统-大气相互作用十分重要。此外，缺少的过程需要包括在内，这是相关的对流允许模拟。一般来说，通过这些气候相关过程的整合，预计模拟的气候要素的变化。尽管这些反馈的方向和强度及其相互影响是模糊的。该项目的新奇在于，在区域和地方尺度上，对短暂的人为土地利用、动态植被和覆盖世界主要陆地的农田面积进行核算。重点需要放在分析自然变异性和不同植物生态系统对环境和气候条件变化的敏感性。此外，需要估计植被和土地利用/覆盖变化对陆-气耦合和气候的影响。考虑固有的不确定性的关键挑战是推进区域气候建模，以更好地评估气候变化对极端事件和粮食安全的影响。重要的是，工作战略既包括促进优秀的科学，也包括支持能力和网络建设，包括展示改进的影响评估，并与决策者建立联系。