Reducing the uncertainty on regional and local climate induced by land-atmospherefeedbacks

土地利用和土地覆盖变化被认为是对地方、区域和全球气候的重要强迫，从而改变农业生产力。农业用地面临的持续压力、粮食不安全以及适应气候变化的需要，使得对未来地表发展的综合评估和建模变得越来越重要。最近的评论表明，区域气候建模方法和分析工具都不能完全胜任这项任务。有必要通过将相关过程交互整合到区域气候模式中来减少陆地-大气反馈带来的气候不确定性，这对季节、年代际和气候时间尺度上的生态系统-大气相互作用很重要。此外，需要包括缺失的过程，这与允许对流的模拟有关。一般来说，通过整合这些气候相关过程，预计模拟的气候要素会发生变化。虽然这些反馈的方向和强度以及它们之间的相互影响是模糊的。这个项目的新颖之处在于考虑了短暂的人为土地利用、动态植被和农业领域，这些领域覆盖了世界的主要土地部分，在区域和地方范围内。重点应放在分析不同植物生态系统对环境和气候条件变化的自然变异性和敏感性上。此外，还需要估算植被和土地利用/覆被变化对陆地-大气耦合和气候的影响。考虑固有不确定性的关键挑战是推进区域气候模型，以改进对气候变化对极端事件和粮食安全影响的评估。重要的是，该工作战略既包括激励优秀的科学，也包括支持能力和网络建设，包括展示与决策者联系的改进的影响评估。

Land use and land cover change is recognized as an important forcing on local, regional and global climate, and consequently alter the productivity of agriculture. Continued pressure on agricultural land, food insecurity and required adaptation to climate change have made integrated assessment and modelling of future land surface development increasingly important. Recent reviews revealed that neither regional climate modelling approaches nor the analysis tools are fully up to the task. There is a need for reducing the uncertainty on climate introduced by land-atmosphere feedbacks by integrating relevant processes interactively into regional climate models, which are important for ecosystem-atmosphere interactions on seasonal, inter-decadal and climate time scales. Furthermore, missing processes need to be included, which are relevant for convection-permitting simulations. Generally, a change of the simulated climate elements through integration of these climate relevant processes is expected. Although vague are the direction and strength of these feedbacks and their mutual influence. The novelty of this project is to account for transient anthropogenic land use, for dynamical vegetation, and for areas of agricultural fields, which cover major land parts of the world, on regional and local scale. The focus needs to be on analysis of natural variability and sensitivity of different plant ecosystems to changes of environmental and climatic conditions. Furthermore, the influence of vegetation and land use/cover changes on land-atmosphere coupling and climate needs to be estimated. The key challenges to consider the inherent uncertainty are to advance regional climate modelling for improved assessment of climate change impacts on extremes and food security. Importantly, the work strategy includes both to stimulate excellent science and to support capacity and network building including demonstration of improved impact assessments with links to decision makers.