Mitigating Small Business Finance Risks

我使用计量经济学技术对信贷担保计划进行了调查和建模，并计算了东南亚国家联盟（东盟）样本国家在COVID-19后不同复苏阶段的每组银行的最佳信贷担保比率。此外，笔者还将日本、中国、东盟等亚洲各国的碳中和和绿色发展目标，以及为实现这些目标而进行绿色金融和投资的必要性等纳入研究范围。首先，考察了信用担保率与各种变量之间的关系。其次，我建立了一个计量经济学模型，突出了贷款违约率对宏观经济和银行层面冲动的反应;第三，我的研究提出了使中小企业复苏、绿色和可持续的方法;第二，我评估了绿色金融工具的有效性，包括碳税，碳定价，绿色债券，绿色信贷担保，绿色信贷，以促进各行各业（包括中小企）的绿色增长。我发现绿色信贷保证计划是一个适当的工具，既可促进中小企的发展，又可鼓励他们采用绿色。此外，中小企业是重要的排放者;因此，如果不考虑中小企业，就不可能实现碳中和。除此之外，为了有一个最佳的信贷担保计划，担保费需要根据中小企业的健全程度而有所不同。此外，政府需要根据银行的稳健程度对银行进行分类，稳健的银行获得更高的担保比例。

I investigated and modeled the credit guarantee scheme using econometric techniques and calculated the optimal credit guarantee ratio for each group of banks in a sample of countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in different stages of recovery in post-COVID-19. In addition, I expanded my study by incorporating the carbon neutrality and green development goals and the necessity of green finance and investment to achieve the goals in Japan, China, ASEAN, and several other countries in Asia.In my studies, firstly, I examined the relationship between the credit guarantee ratio and different variables. Secondly, I developed an econometrics model to highlight the loan default ratio response to macroeconomic and bank-level impulses; thirdly, my studies proposed ways to make the recovery of SMEs, green and sustainable; fourthly, I evaluated the effectiveness of green finance instruments, including carbon taxation, carbon pricing, green bond, green credit guarantee, green credit to promote the green growth of all sectors including SMEs.I found that the green credit guarantee scheme is a proper instrument for facilitating the development of SMEs while incentivizing them to be green. Moreover, SMEs are significant emitters; hence carbon neutrality could not be achieved without considering the SMEs. In addition to that, to have an optimal credit guarantee scheme, the guarantee fee needs to vary for SMEs based on their soundness. Moreover, governments need to categorize banks based on their soundness, and sound banks receive a higher guarantee ratio.