The future of biodiversity conservation in farming landscapes in south-eastern Australia

农业的持续扩张和集约化是世界范围内生物多样性丧失的主要原因，保护农业景观中的生物多样性的努力往往与农业土地的使用相冲突。特别是在受到农业变化威胁的地区，迫切需要在生物多样性发生不可挽回的损失之前确定可持续土地利用的轨迹。如何最好地使农业与生物多样性保护相协调，这是一个广泛辩论的主题。特别是，提出了可持续集约和节约土地/节约土地的范例，作为可能的解决办法。然而，这些都被批评为狭隘地关注粮食生产而忽视更广泛的社会问题，为高度复杂的问题提供了不完整的解决方案。为了克服这些限制，我在这里提出了一个项目，它将应用系统思维方法来整合不同的视角，并接受人与环境相互作用的关键不确定性和复杂性。该项目的主要目标是协调农业景观中相互冲突的土地使用优先顺序。特别是，在面对不确定性时，将采用情景规划的方法来解决复杂的规划问题。当与非学术行为者密切合作时，情景规划可以促进沟通和联合解决问题。对于这项研究，我假设可以确定特定地区不同的、相互冲突的土地使用优先顺序，情景规划可以帮助协调这些优先顺序。为了回答我的研究问题，我战略性地选择了澳大利亚东南部的一个案例研究区域，该区域理想地代表了世界集约化农业景观的典型特征。此外，它被国际公认为濒危的生态区--其自然植被已基本丧失，经济上可行的农业和保护当地生物多样性的目标相互冲突是突出的问题。拟议的项目分为三个部分。首先，我会确定研究区未来土地用途的不同优先次序，以及可能互相冲突的优先次序。这包括绘制相关利益攸关方的地图，并进行质量研究，以确定对优先事项的不同看法。第二，我将与当地和区域利益攸关方共同制定未来的社会生态发展情景。通过参与式规划研讨会，我将确定变化的主要驱动因素及其不确定性，然后制定情景逻辑和叙述。第三，我将分析这些情景的影响，并通过问卷工具和第二轮利益攸关方研讨会确定协调相互冲突的优先事项的机会。最后，我将举办两个学术研讨会，综合情景规划在农业景观生物多样性保护中的作用，来自欧洲和澳大利亚的学术专家将参加，以推广这项研究的发现。

Ongoing expansion and intensification of agriculture are leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide, and efforts to conserve biodiversity in farming landscapes often conflict with agricultural land use. Especially in locations threatened by agricultural change, there is an urgent need to identify trajectories of sustainable land use, before irreparable losses of biodiversity occur. How to best harmonize farming with biodiversity conservation is subject to extensive debate. In particular, the paradigms of sustainable intensification and land sparing/land sparing have been put forward as possible solutions. However, these have been criticised for providing incomplete solutions to a highly complex problem by narrowly focussing on food production and ignoring wider societal issues. To overcome these limitations, here I propose a project that will apply a systems thinking approach to integrate different perspectives and embrace critical uncertainties and complexities of human-environment interactions. The main goal of the project is to harmonise conflicting priorities for land use in farming landscapes. In particular, the method of scenario planning will be employed to solve complex planning issues in the face of uncertainty. When applied in close collaboration with non-academic actors, scenario planning can foster communication and joint problem solving. For this study I hypothesize that different, conflicting land use priorities can be identified for a given area and that scenario planning can help to reconcile these priorities. In order to address my research question, I strategically selected a case study area in south-eastern Australia, which ideally represents typical features of intensive farming landscapes in the world. Moreover, it is internationally recognized as an endangered ecoregion – its natural vegetation has been largely lost, and the conflicting goals of economically viable farming and the preservation of native biodiversity are prominent issues. The proposed project is structured in three parts. First, I will identify different and potentially conflicting priorities for future land use in the study area. This includes mapping of relevant stakeholders and performing a Q-study to identify different perceptions of priorities. Second, I will develop future scenarios for social-ecological development with local and regional stakeholders. Through participatory planning workshops I will identify the main drivers of change and their uncertainties, to then develop the scenario logic and narratives. Third, I will analyse the implications of the scenarios, and identify opportunities to harmonise conflicting priorities through a questionnaire tool and a second round of stakeholder workshops. Finally, I will conduct two academic workshops to synthesize the role of scenario planning in biodiversity conservation in farming landscapes, involving academic experts from Europe and Australia in order to generalize the findings from this study.