The future of biodiversity conservation in farming landscapes in south-eastern Australia

农业的持续扩张和集约化是全球生物多样性丧失的主要原因，而在农业景观中保护生物多样性的努力往往与农业用地相冲突。特别是在受到农业变化威胁的地区，迫切需要在生物多样性发生不可挽回的损失之前确定可持续土地利用的轨迹。如何最好地协调农业与生物多样性保护之间的关系受到广泛的争论。特别提出了可持续集约化和土地节约模式作为可能的解决方案。然而，这些方法被批评为为一个高度复杂的问题提供了不完整的解决方案，因为它们狭隘地关注粮食生产，而忽视了更广泛的社会问题。为了克服这些限制，我在这里提出了一个项目，该项目将应用系统思维方法来整合不同的观点，并接受人类与环境相互作用的关键不确定性和复杂性。该项目的主要目标是协调农业景观中土地使用的冲突优先事项。特别是，将采用情景规划的方法来解决面对不确定性的复杂规划问题。当与非学术参与者密切合作时，情景规划可以促进沟通和共同解决问题。对于这项研究，我假设可以在给定区域确定不同的，相互冲突的土地使用优先级，并且情景规划可以帮助协调这些优先级。为了解决我的研究问题，我战略性地选择了澳大利亚东南部的一个案例研究区域，理想地代表了世界上集约化农业景观的典型特征。此外，它是国际上公认的濒危生态地区——其自然植被大部分已经消失，经济上可行的农业和保护当地生物多样性的相互冲突的目标是突出的问题。拟议的项目由三个部分组成。首先，我将确定研究区域未来土地使用的不同和潜在冲突的优先事项。这包括绘制相关利益相关者的地图，并进行q研究，以确定对优先事项的不同看法。其次，我将与当地和区域利益相关者一起制定社会生态发展的未来方案。通过参与式规划研讨会，我将确定变化的主要驱动因素及其不确定性，然后发展情景逻辑和叙述。第三，我将分析情景的含义，并通过问卷调查工具和第二轮利益相关者研讨会确定协调冲突优先事项的机会。最后，我将举办两场学术研讨会，以综合情景规划在农业景观生物多样性保护中的作用，来自欧洲和澳大利亚的学术专家将参与其中，以总结本研究的结果。

Ongoing expansion and intensification of agriculture are leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide, and efforts to conserve biodiversity in farming landscapes often conflict with agricultural land use. Especially in locations threatened by agricultural change, there is an urgent need to identify trajectories of sustainable land use, before irreparable losses of biodiversity occur. How to best harmonize farming with biodiversity conservation is subject to extensive debate. In particular, the paradigms of sustainable intensification and land sparing/land sparing have been put forward as possible solutions. However, these have been criticised for providing incomplete solutions to a highly complex problem by narrowly focussing on food production and ignoring wider societal issues. To overcome these limitations, here I propose a project that will apply a systems thinking approach to integrate different perspectives and embrace critical uncertainties and complexities of human-environment interactions. The main goal of the project is to harmonise conflicting priorities for land use in farming landscapes. In particular, the method of scenario planning will be employed to solve complex planning issues in the face of uncertainty. When applied in close collaboration with non-academic actors, scenario planning can foster communication and joint problem solving. For this study I hypothesize that different, conflicting land use priorities can be identified for a given area and that scenario planning can help to reconcile these priorities. In order to address my research question, I strategically selected a case study area in south-eastern Australia, which ideally represents typical features of intensive farming landscapes in the world. Moreover, it is internationally recognized as an endangered ecoregion – its natural vegetation has been largely lost, and the conflicting goals of economically viable farming and the preservation of native biodiversity are prominent issues. The proposed project is structured in three parts. First, I will identify different and potentially conflicting priorities for future land use in the study area. This includes mapping of relevant stakeholders and performing a Q-study to identify different perceptions of priorities. Second, I will develop future scenarios for social-ecological development with local and regional stakeholders. Through participatory planning workshops I will identify the main drivers of change and their uncertainties, to then develop the scenario logic and narratives. Third, I will analyse the implications of the scenarios, and identify opportunities to harmonise conflicting priorities through a questionnaire tool and a second round of stakeholder workshops. Finally, I will conduct two academic workshops to synthesize the role of scenario planning in biodiversity conservation in farming landscapes, involving academic experts from Europe and Australia in order to generalize the findings from this study.