Ensemble projections of rare and endangered flood meadow species under climate change

洪泛草地是高度濒危和脆弱的生态系统，尤其受到全球变化的影响。该项目的目的是提高我们的能力和知识，以预测在气候变化影响下的洪泛草地物种的发生。我们将以高时空分辨率预测气候变化下典型河流洪泛区的水文状况，并将此信息用于植物物种分布建模。物种分布模型将特别关注稀有和濒危物种。由此产生的模型框架CMFhabitat将被应用于自然保护区Kühkopf Knoblochsaue的莱茵河，其最大的洪泛区之一。在预期的建模框架中，我们将包括相关的不确定性来源，并评估其对模型全局不确定性的特定贡献。特别是，我们将研究参数化的不确定性，缩小尺度的气候模型，水文模型结构和习惯模型结构，通过集合建模。我们的研究结果将对洪泛区生物多样性的保护规划、恢复措施和全球变化影响研究发挥至关重要的作用。我们的建模方法将为水文学满足生物多样性的进一步生态建模研究提供良好的基础，包括对受地下水影响的生态系统进行底栖无脊椎动物评估。

Flood meadows are highly endangered and vulnerable ecosystems, particularly impacted by global change. The aim of this project is to enhance our capabilities and knowledge to forecast the occurrence of flood meadow species under climate change impact. We will project the hydrological regime of a typical river floodplain under climate change with high spatial and temporal resolution and use this information for plant species distribution modeling. The species distribution model will particularly look at rare and endangered species. The resulting model framework CMFhabitat will be applied in the nature reserve Kühkopf-Knoblochsaue of the Rhine river, one of the largest floodplain of its kind. In the intended modeling framework, we will include relevant uncertainty sources and evaluate their particular contribution to the global uncertainty of the model. Particularly we will look into the uncertainty of parameterization, downscaled climate models, hydrological model structure and habit model structures through ensemble modelling. Our results will have a vital role for conservation planning, restoration measures and global change impact studies on biodiversity in floodplains. Our modeling approach will provide a sound basis for further ecological modelling studies where hydrology meets biodiversity, including benthic invertebrate assessments of groundwater-impacted ecosystems.