RAPID: Scenario Projections for Seasonal Influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV Burden in the US (2023-2024)

RAPID:美国季节性流感、SARS-CoV-2 和 RSV 负担的情景预测(2023-2024 年)

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    2345693
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2023-12-01 至 2024-11-30
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

To guide public health planning efforts for the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season, this study will use mathematical models to predict the individual and combined healthcare burden of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States. Since its emergence in 2019, COVID-19 has spread alongside influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) globally. While early pandemic interventions disrupted the seasonal transmission of influenza and RSV, the co-circulation of the three viruses strained healthcare resources in the United States during the 2022-2023 respiratory virus season. SARS-CoV-2 has yet to settle into a predictable seasonal cycle and the most recent RSV epidemic was significantly larger than pre-pandemic RSV seasonal waves. Public health and healthcare decision makers face considerable uncertainty in planning for future overlapping epidemics given that the timing and magnitude of seasonal virus epidemics are uncertain and that new medical countermeasures have recently become available for RSV that can significantly reduce disease severity for those at highest risk. The project will provide technical and translational training for two postdoctoral researchers and one Ph.D. student.The researchers will project the healthcare burden associated with COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States throughout the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season under epidemiological scenarios that are defined in collaboration with officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Using a stochastic compartmental susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) modeling framework that was previously developed and validated for submitting projections to the CDC’s COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hub, the projections will integrate estimates of population-wide immunity from derived from prior infections, vaccinations, and monoclonal antibody therapy for all three viruses and consider several scenarios for the future evolution of the viruses and the efficacy and uptake of medical countermeasures. The project will produce four rounds of projections between September 2023 and February 2024, which will be disseminated through rapid reports, peer-reviewed publications, and discussions with the CDC, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, and the CDC’s Influenza and COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hubs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
为了指导2023-2024年呼吸道病毒季节的公共卫生规划工作,这项研究将使用数学模型来预测美国新冠肺炎、流感和呼吸道合胞病毒的个人和联合医疗负担。自2019年出现以来,新冠肺炎与流感和呼吸道合胞病毒一起在全球传播。虽然早期的大流行干预中断了流感和RSV的季节性传播,但在2022-2023年呼吸道病毒季节,这三种病毒的共同传播给美国的医疗资源带来了压力。SARS-CoV-2尚未进入可预测的季节性周期,最近的RSV疫情比大流行前的RSV季节性波动大得多。公共卫生和医疗保健决策者在规划未来重叠的流行病时面临着相当大的不确定性,因为季节性病毒流行的时间和规模尚不确定,而且最近已有针对RSV的新医学对策,可以显著降低高危人群的疾病严重程度。该项目将为两名博士后研究人员和一名博士后提供技术和翻译培训。研究人员将在与美国疾病控制和预防中心官员合作定义的流行病学情景下,预测整个2023-2024年呼吸道病毒季节美国与新冠肺炎、流感和呼吸道合胞病毒相关的医疗负担。使用先前开发并验证用于向疾控中心新冠肺炎场景建模中心和流感场景建模中心提交预测的随机分隔易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)建模框架,这些预测将整合对所有三种病毒先前感染、疫苗接种和单抗治疗所产生的全人群免疫的估计,并考虑病毒未来演变以及医疗对策的有效性和吸收的几种情景。该项目将在2023年9月至2024年2月期间进行四轮预测,将通过快速报告、同行评议出版物以及与疾控中心、州和地区流行病学家委员会以及疾控中心流感和新冠肺炎场景建模中心的讨论进行传播。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}

Lauren Meyers其他文献

Lauren Meyers的其他文献

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

{{ truncateString('Lauren Meyers', 18)}}的其他基金

PIPP Phase I: Center for Pandemic Decision Science - Developing Robust Paradigms for Anticipating and Mitigating Uncertain Pathogen Threats
PIPP 第一阶段:流行病决策科学中心 - 开发预测和减轻不确定病原体威胁的稳健范式
  • 批准号:
    2200169
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Variation in tick host preference and its epidemiological impact
论文研究:蜱宿主偏好的变化及其流行病学影响
  • 批准号:
    1311637
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Dynamic Risk Perceptions about Mexican Swine Flu
合作研究:对墨西哥猪流感的动态风险认知
  • 批准号:
    0940071
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
The Spread and Evolution of Parasites on Host Networks
主机网络上寄生虫的传播和进化
  • 批准号:
    0749097
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Evolution, Conflict and Cooperation in Mixed-species Bacterial Communities
混合物种细菌群落的进化、冲突与合作
  • 批准号:
    0445351
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Evolving Better Biofilms: The Dynamics of Community-Level Natural Selection in Bacteria
进化更好的生物膜:细菌群落水平自然选择的动态
  • 批准号:
    0303636
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biological Informatics for FY 2000
2000财年生物信息学博士后研究奖学金
  • 批准号:
    0074505
  • 财政年份:
    2000
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Fellowship Award

相似海外基金

The global impact of high summer temperature on heatstroke mortality in the current climate scenario
当前气候情景下夏季高温对中暑死亡率的全球影响
  • 批准号:
    24K13527
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Intelligence Informed Scenario-Based Pentesting Tool
基于情报的场景渗透测试工具
  • 批准号:
    10077646
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Collaborative R&D
Development of autonomous operation scenario for space smart antenna system considering uncertainties
考虑不确定性的空间智能天线系统自主运行场景开发
  • 批准号:
    23H01607
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Constructing a circulative network of sustainable phosphorus management: multi-level analysis and scenario design among material, technology, and society
构建磷可持续管理循环网络:物质、技术、社会多层次分析与情景设计
  • 批准号:
    23K17085
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
CISE-ANR: SHF: Small: Scenario-based Formal Proofs for Concurrent Software
CISE-ANR:SHF:小型:并发软件的基于场景的形式化证明
  • 批准号:
    2315363
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
RAPID: Retrospective COVID-19 Scenario Projections Accounting for Population Heterogeneities
RAPID:考虑人口异质性的回顾性 COVID-19 情景预测
  • 批准号:
    2333494
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
PreSize Diagnostic medical device software for increased precision in advance selection of best surgical scenario for every patient at point of diagnosis
PreSize 诊断医疗设备软件可提高精确度,在诊断时为每位患者提前选择最佳手术方案
  • 批准号:
    10073884
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Collaborative R&D
PreSize Net medical device software for realistic surgery planning: next-generation scalable technology for selecting the best surgical scenario for every patient
用于现实手术规划的 PreSize Net 医疗设备软件:下一代可扩展技术,可为每位患者选择最佳手术方案
  • 批准号:
    10055877
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Collaborative R&D
Urban Nature-based Solutions: Scenario-based Spatial Assessment of Benefits and Equity Toward SDG11
基于城市自然的解决方案:基于情景的空间评估,实现可持续发展目标 11
  • 批准号:
    22KF0054
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
City transition scenario for carbon neutrality and its evaluation by simulation
城市碳中和转型情景及其模拟评估
  • 批准号:
    23H01567
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 19.51万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
{{ showInfoDetail.title }}

作者:{{ showInfoDetail.author }}

知道了