RAPID: Scenario Projections for Seasonal Influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV Burden in the US (2023-2024)

为了指导2023-2024年呼吸道病毒季节的公共卫生规划工作，这项研究将使用数学模型来预测美国新冠肺炎、流感和呼吸道合胞病毒的个人和联合医疗负担。自2019年出现以来，新冠肺炎与流感和呼吸道合胞病毒一起在全球传播。虽然早期的大流行干预中断了流感和RSV的季节性传播，但在2022-2023年呼吸道病毒季节，这三种病毒的共同传播给美国的医疗资源带来了压力。SARS-CoV-2尚未进入可预测的季节性周期，最近的RSV疫情比大流行前的RSV季节性波动大得多。公共卫生和医疗保健决策者在规划未来重叠的流行病时面临着相当大的不确定性，因为季节性病毒流行的时间和规模尚不确定，而且最近已有针对RSV的新医学对策，可以显著降低高危人群的疾病严重程度。该项目将为两名博士后研究人员和一名博士后提供技术和翻译培训。研究人员将在与美国疾病控制和预防中心官员合作定义的流行病学情景下，预测整个2023-2024年呼吸道病毒季节美国与新冠肺炎、流感和呼吸道合胞病毒相关的医疗负担。使用先前开发并验证用于向疾控中心新冠肺炎场景建模中心和流感场景建模中心提交预测的随机分隔易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)建模框架，这些预测将整合对所有三种病毒先前感染、疫苗接种和单抗治疗所产生的全人群免疫的估计，并考虑病毒未来演变以及医疗对策的有效性和吸收的几种情景。该项目将在2023年9月至2024年2月期间进行四轮预测，将通过快速报告、同行评议出版物以及与疾控中心、州和地区流行病学家委员会以及疾控中心流感和新冠肺炎场景建模中心的讨论进行传播。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

To guide public health planning efforts for the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season, this study will use mathematical models to predict the individual and combined healthcare burden of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States. Since its emergence in 2019, COVID-19 has spread alongside influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) globally. While early pandemic interventions disrupted the seasonal transmission of influenza and RSV, the co-circulation of the three viruses strained healthcare resources in the United States during the 2022-2023 respiratory virus season. SARS-CoV-2 has yet to settle into a predictable seasonal cycle and the most recent RSV epidemic was significantly larger than pre-pandemic RSV seasonal waves. Public health and healthcare decision makers face considerable uncertainty in planning for future overlapping epidemics given that the timing and magnitude of seasonal virus epidemics are uncertain and that new medical countermeasures have recently become available for RSV that can significantly reduce disease severity for those at highest risk. The project will provide technical and translational training for two postdoctoral researchers and one Ph.D. student.The researchers will project the healthcare burden associated with COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States throughout the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season under epidemiological scenarios that are defined in collaboration with officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Using a stochastic compartmental susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) modeling framework that was previously developed and validated for submitting projections to the CDC’s COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hub, the projections will integrate estimates of population-wide immunity from derived from prior infections, vaccinations, and monoclonal antibody therapy for all three viruses and consider several scenarios for the future evolution of the viruses and the efficacy and uptake of medical countermeasures. The project will produce four rounds of projections between September 2023 and February 2024, which will be disseminated through rapid reports, peer-reviewed publications, and discussions with the CDC, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, and the CDC’s Influenza and COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hubs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.