RAPID: Scenario Projections for Seasonal Influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV Burden in the US (2023-2024)

为了指导2023-2024年呼吸道病毒季节的公共卫生规划工作，本研究将使用数学模型预测美国COVID-19、流感和RSV的个人和综合医疗负担。自2019年出现以来，COVID-19与流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）一起在全球传播。虽然早期的大流行干预措施破坏了流感和RSV的季节性传播，但在2022-2023年呼吸道病毒季节，这三种病毒的共同传播使美国的医疗资源紧张。SARS-CoV-2尚未进入可预测的季节性周期，最近的RSV流行明显大于大流行前的RSV季节性波。公共卫生和卫生保健决策者在规划未来重叠流行时面临相当大的不确定性，因为季节性病毒流行的时间和规模都不确定，而且最近出现了针对RSV的新的医疗对策，可以显著降低高危人群的疾病严重程度。该项目将为两名博士后研究员和一名博士生提供技术和转化培训。研究人员将在与美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）官员合作确定的流行病学情景下，预测整个2023-2024年呼吸道病毒季节美国与COVID-19、流感和RSV相关的医疗负担。使用之前开发并验证的随机区隔易感暴露-感染-恢复（SEIR）建模框架，该框架用于向疾病预防控制中心的COVID-19情景建模中心和流感情景建模中心提交预测，预测将整合来自先前感染、疫苗接种、以及针对所有三种病毒的单克隆抗体治疗，并考虑病毒未来进化的几种情况以及医学对策的有效性和吸收。该项目将在2023年9月至2024年2月期间产生四轮预测，并将通过快速报告、同行评议出版物以及与疾病预防控制中心、州和地区流行病学家委员会以及疾病预防控制中心的流感和COVID-19情景建模中心的讨论进行传播。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

To guide public health planning efforts for the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season, this study will use mathematical models to predict the individual and combined healthcare burden of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States. Since its emergence in 2019, COVID-19 has spread alongside influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) globally. While early pandemic interventions disrupted the seasonal transmission of influenza and RSV, the co-circulation of the three viruses strained healthcare resources in the United States during the 2022-2023 respiratory virus season. SARS-CoV-2 has yet to settle into a predictable seasonal cycle and the most recent RSV epidemic was significantly larger than pre-pandemic RSV seasonal waves. Public health and healthcare decision makers face considerable uncertainty in planning for future overlapping epidemics given that the timing and magnitude of seasonal virus epidemics are uncertain and that new medical countermeasures have recently become available for RSV that can significantly reduce disease severity for those at highest risk. The project will provide technical and translational training for two postdoctoral researchers and one Ph.D. student.The researchers will project the healthcare burden associated with COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States throughout the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season under epidemiological scenarios that are defined in collaboration with officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Using a stochastic compartmental susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) modeling framework that was previously developed and validated for submitting projections to the CDC’s COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hub, the projections will integrate estimates of population-wide immunity from derived from prior infections, vaccinations, and monoclonal antibody therapy for all three viruses and consider several scenarios for the future evolution of the viruses and the efficacy and uptake of medical countermeasures. The project will produce four rounds of projections between September 2023 and February 2024, which will be disseminated through rapid reports, peer-reviewed publications, and discussions with the CDC, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, and the CDC’s Influenza and COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hubs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.