Economic implications of climate change induced tree species distribution shifts on the provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services in Central America

热带森林是生物多样性的热点，并提供对人类福祉至关重要的生态系统服务。虽然最近关于气候变化对森林生态系统和物种分布的影响的研究主要集中在温带地区，但越来越多的证据表明，热带森林生态系统对气候变化特别敏感。更重要的是，树种分布的相关转变预计将导致生态系统商品和服务的提供以及森林对依赖它们的社会的经济价值发生变化。这一前景对中美洲森林丰富的国家特别重要，这些国家依赖森林作为一种多用途资源，例如维持农村生计、固碳、提供栖息地、提供森林货物和吸引生态游客。到目前为止，大多数作为种植园管理的中美洲森林都是为了经济表现而优化，而不是促进抗气候变化的物种。另一方面，受保护林区在很大程度上依赖于被动的管理战略。然而，面对气候变化，可能需要更积极的适应性管理战略，以确保这些森林的持久性及其提供的生态系统服务。因此，本研究旨在进行全面的生态-经济分析，涵盖以下几个方面：-调查气候变化对物种分布的影响--模拟森林生态系统服务及其相关经济价值的变化，以及-评估中美洲森林一切照旧与替代适应战略。这些研究结果有望(1)对物种分布和经济影响之间的相互联系产生重要的见解，(2)确定面临重大生态经济变化的区域；(3)从经济角度为中美洲森林的可持续管理应对气候变化提供奖励。

Tropical forests represent hot spots for biodiversity and deliver ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. While recent climate change impact studies on forest ecosystems and species distributions mostly focus on the temperate zones, there is increasing evidence that tropical forest ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change. Even more, a related shift of tree species distributions is expected to result in changes in the provision of ecosystem goods and services and the economic value of the forests for the societies depending upon them. This outlook is of special relevance for the forest rich countries of Central America, which rely on forests as a multi-use resource e.g. to sustain rural livelihood, sequester carbon, provide habitat, deliver forest goods and attract eco-tourists. Up to date, the majority of Central America’s forests that are managed as plantations are optimized for economic performance rather than promoting climate change resistant species. Protected forest areas on the other hand largely rely on a passive management strategy. In the face of climate change, however, more active adaptive management strategies may be needed to ensure the persistence of these forests and their provision of ecosystem services.This study therefore aims at a comprehensive ecological-economic analysis covering the following aspects:- Investigation of climate change impacts on species distributions- Modeling changes in forest ecosystem services and their associated economic value and- Evaluation of business-as-usual versus alternative adaptation strategies for Central American forests.The findings are expected to (1) yield important insights into the interlinkage of species distributions and economic impacts, (2) identify regions facing major ecological-economic changes and (3) provide incentives for a sustainable management of Central American forests to climate change from an economic viewpoint.