Economic implications of climate change induced tree species distribution shifts on the provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services in Central America

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Tropical forests represent hot spots for biodiversity and deliver ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. While recent climate change impact studies on forest ecosystems and species distributions mostly focus on the temperate zones, there is increasing evidence that tropical forest ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change. Even more, a related shift of tree species distributions is expected to result in changes in the provision of ecosystem goods and services and the economic value of the forests for the societies depending upon them. This outlook is of special relevance for the forest rich countries of Central America, which rely on forests as a multi-use resource e.g. to sustain rural livelihood, sequester carbon, provide habitat, deliver forest goods and attract eco-tourists. Up to date, the majority of Central America’s forests that are managed as plantations are optimized for economic performance rather than promoting climate change resistant species. Protected forest areas on the other hand largely rely on a passive management strategy. In the face of climate change, however, more active adaptive management strategies may be needed to ensure the persistence of these forests and their provision of ecosystem services.This study therefore aims at a comprehensive ecological-economic analysis covering the following aspects:- Investigation of climate change impacts on species distributions- Modeling changes in forest ecosystem services and their associated economic value and- Evaluation of business-as-usual versus alternative adaptation strategies for Central American forests.The findings are expected to (1) yield important insights into the interlinkage of species distributions and economic impacts, (2) identify regions facing major ecological-economic changes and (3) provide incentives for a sustainable management of Central American forests to climate change from an economic viewpoint.