West Antarctic Last Interglacial ice sheet collapse (WANT-ice) - Dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Last Interglacial and its implications for future sea level changes.

南极西部末次间冰期冰盖崩塌（WANT-ice）——末次间冰期南极冰盖的动力学及其对未来海平面变化的影响。

• 批准号: 417975849
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Johannes Carl Roderick Sutter, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Physikalisches Institut
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2018-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/417975849?language=en
• 关键词: West; Antarctic; Last; Interglacial; ice

Widespread melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets led to a sea level rise of approximately 6-9 meter (Dutton et al., 2015) in the Last Interglacial (also known as Marine Isotope Stage 5e, ca. 125.000 years ago). It is noteworthy that this sea level rise occurred under a climate regime very similar to todays. Global surface temperatures were approximately 0.5-1.5C warmer than in pre-industrial times and almost indistinguishable from today (Turney and Jones, 2010; Hoffman et al., 2017). Considering the densely populated coastal regions worldwide, a multi-meter sea level rise within the next centuries would result in mass migration (Kopp et al., 2017) with severe effects on society. Despite this potential hazard, it is still unclear upon which climate-threshold critical instabilities will be triggered which lead to the irreversible loss of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheets, in particular the vulnerable marine West Antarctic Ice Sheet.To identify the driving forces behind the current retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Konrad et al., 2018) and project its future trajectory, ice sheet modelling studies are necessary. In the scope of project WANT-ice, the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial and into the future shall be investigated by means of 3D continental ice sheet modelling. For this purpose, the growth and retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be simulated for the last 130.000 years as well as for the next century and beyond. To minimise uncertainties of model-based sea level projections, a novel model-data intercomparison approach shall be employed, seeking outmodel configurations which match Antarctic deep ice core proxies and the current Antarctic ice sheet’s internal stratigraphy. Thus, we will be able to produce the first projection of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level constrained by the Antarctic paleo-climate ice core archive and stratigraphic record.

格陵兰和南极冰盖的大范围融化导致海平面上升约6-9米（达顿等人，2015年，在最后一次间冰期（也被称为海洋同位素阶段5e，约。125000年前）。值得注意的是，这次海平面上升发生在与今天非常相似的气候状况下。全球表面温度比前工业时代高出约0.5- 1.5摄氏度，与今天几乎没有区别（Turney和Jones，2010年;霍夫曼等人，2017年）。考虑到全世界人口稠密的沿海地区，未来几个世纪内海平面上升数米将导致大规模移民（Kopp等人，2017年），对社会造成严重影响。尽管存在这种潜在的危险，但目前仍不清楚哪些气候阈值临界不稳定性将被触发，导致南极冰盖部分，特别是脆弱的海洋南极西部冰盖的不可逆转的损失。2018年）并预测其未来轨迹，冰盖建模研究是必要的。在WANT-ice项目的范围内，将通过三维大陆冰盖模型研究南极冰盖在末次间冰期和未来的稳定性。为此，将模拟过去13万年以及下世纪及以后南极冰盖的增长和退缩。为了最大限度地减少基于模型的海平面预测的不确定性，应采用一种新的模型数据相互比较的方法，寻找与南极深冰芯代理和当前南极冰盖内部地层相匹配的outmodel配置。因此，我们将能够产生的第一个预测未来南极海平面的贡献，南极古气候冰芯档案和地层记录的约束。