Network Design and Traffic Control for Reducing the Probability of Multiple Encounter of Ships

降低船舶多次相遇概率的网络设计和交通控制

• 批准号: 01460187
• 负责人: OKUYAMA Yasuhide
• 金额: $ 2.69万
• 依托单位: Tottori University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1989
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1989 至 1991
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-01460187/
• 关键词: Multiple Encounter; Encounter of Ships; Accident Prevention; Simulation Model; Probabilistic Model; Network Design; Traffic Control; Collision Risk; シミュレ-ション・モデル; 多重遭遇; 発生確率; 推定モデル; 衝突事故; 海上交通; 計画法

Both the decrease of navigational waters and the increase of pleasure boats which derive from the recent progress of coastal zone utilization in congested waters carry more dangerous situation in ship traffic. Under such a situation, a multiple encounter, the situation that more than three ships simultaneously encounter in each other, is focused as a quite dangerous situation leading to a collision, because no navigational rule to resolve the situation exists.This study aims to reduce the occurrence of multiple encounter of ships from a view point of maritime traffic engineering. The proposed procedure to find effective counter measures to reduce the occurrence of multiple encounters starts from collecting traffic and network data concerned, and involves following models and techniques :(1)a technique to grasp the present situation of occurrence of multiple encounters,(2)a simulation model to estimate the future distributions of headway and sailing course of ships on the network after changed.(3)a mathematical model to calculate the probability of occurrence of multiple encounters under the changed network,(4)a simulation model which gives us useful information on ship traffic control to resolve multiple encounters.Through the model development and its examination, some interesting knowledges have been found, which include :(1)Both unifying and dispersing links of a navigation network gives the increase of the probability of occurrence of multiple encounter. This tendency suggests the existence of optimal link density of a navigation network.(2)The water area where multiple encounter often occurs depends the types of multiple encounter such as those with and without rule conflict in collision avoidance.The models and techniques mentioned above are arranged into "A systematic procedure to reduce multiple encounters of ships by network design and traffic control".

近来拥堵水域海岸带利用的进展导致通航水域的减少和游船的增加，使船舶交通形势更加危险。在这种情况下，多重相遇，即三艘以上船舶同时相遇的情况，由于不存在解决这种情况的航行规则，因此被视为非常危险的导致碰撞的情况。本研究旨在从海上交通工程的角度减少船舶多重相遇的发生。提出的寻找减少多重相遇发生的有效对策的过程从收集有关交通和网络数据开始，涉及以下模型和技术：（1）掌握多重相遇发生现状的技术；（2）模拟模型来估计变化后网络上船舶的未来车头时距和航行路线的分布；（3）计算多重相遇发生概率的数学模型。 改变后的网络，（4）一个模拟模型，为我们提供有关船舶交通控制的有用信息，以解决多重相遇。通过模型的开发和检验，发现了一些有趣的知识，其中包括：（1）导航网络的统一和分散链接都会增加多重相遇发生的概率。这种趋势表明导航网络存在最优链路密度。(2)经常发生多重相遇的水域取决于多重相遇的类型，例如避碰规则冲突和无规则冲突。上述模型和技术被编入“通过网络设计和交通控制减少船舶多重相遇的系统过程”。

项目成果

喜多 秀行: "事故調査記録に基づく衝突海難発生機構の同定法" 日本航海学会論文集. No.86. 105-112 (1992)

Hideyuki Kita：“基于事故调查记录的碰撞机制识别方法”，日本航海学会汇刊第 86 期（1992 年）。

Kuroda, Katsuhiko and Kita, Hideyuki: "Overtaking-Following Choice Model in Vessel Traffic Flow" SSE Working Paper Series, Tottori Univ.WP-90-2. 1-20 (1990)

Kuroda, Katsuhiko 和 Kita, Hideyuki：“船舶交通流中的超车-跟随选择模型”SSE 工作论文系列，鸟取大学 WP-90-2。

Kuroda,Katsuhiko: "Safety Assessment of Waterway Network in Bay Area" Proc.of the 27th Int.Navigation Cong.,PIANC. 2ー1. 39-50 (1990)

Kuroda, Katsuhiko：“湾区航道网络安全评估”，第 27 届国际航道会议，PIANC 39-50 (1990)。

Kita, Hideyuki: "A Method to Identify the Collision Occurrence Structure Based on Ship Accident Survey Reports" J. of Japan Inst. of Navigation. No. 86. 105-112 (1992)

Kita, Hideyuki：“一种基于船舶事故调查报告的碰撞发生结构识别方法” J. of Japan Inst.

Okuyama,Yasuhide: "Vessel Trajectory Database for Coastal Zone Planning" Proc.of Coastal Zone '91. (1991)

Okuyama，Yasuhide：“海岸带规划的船舶轨迹数据库”Proc.of Coastal Zone 91。